STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Understandable bias but the cold shot was far more impactful vs a 6-12 event for the population. Forecasters here were late in warning because the GFS shat all over itself. I’m a weather guy-I relish all extreme events. Models can sniff out and “forecast” an airmass being very cold or warm compared to where a ribbon of snow is gonna occur 8 days out . When the pacific sucks and there is no blocking you lean toward milder rains for SNE , no matter what a 8-10 day threat shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 I thought this graphic at NWS ...as we near the 45th anniversary of the 1978 storm, was pretty interesting... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I thought this graphic at NWS ...as we near the 45th anniversary of the 1978 storm, was pretty interesting... Their graphic is messed up for ORH. It accidentally shows the Jan 2015 storm twice. The top spot at 34.5 is correct for storm total but the 31.9 is the one day Jan 27th total incorrectly listed as a storm total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: Understandable bias but the cold shot was far more impactful vs a 6-12 event for the population. Forecasters here were late in warning because the GFS shat all over itself. I’m a weather guy-I relish all extreme events. Fair enough but I’m not referring to the impact, more so the difference in the forecasting accuracy. Cloudy or rain vs 6-12” is a much bigger forecasting delta compared to -10F vs 0F in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Their graphic is messed up for ORH. It accidentally shows the Jan 2015 storm twice. The top spot at 34.5 is correct for storm total but the 31.9 is the one day Jan 27th total incorrectly listed as a storm total. yeah I noticed that, too. But I thought it was more interesting how the 1978 storm - in general - is slipping out of contention more suddenly since 2000. It's probable that it'll last at Boston and Providence but over all, it seems most top 5s are clustered since 2000, with more decadal spread prior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fair enough but I’m not referring to the impact, more so the difference in the forecasting accuracy. Cloudy or rain vs 6-12” is a much bigger forecasting delta compared to -10F vs 0F in the middle of the night. So nailing the former has a greater impact than nailing the latter. I wasn’t debating whether or not -10F in EMA has a greater impact than 6-12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Presentation overall is here: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/d18edd685e8d46dfba1d16c7673cc9b8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: This isn't meant to rub salt in any wounds, because even up here we are on the southern edge of the gradient on many of these runs like the 12z EURO... but it is still mind-boggling how many Day 10 totals have had 0.0" modeled snowfall from like BOS-HFD-POU. Like not even some fantasy half inch thrown in there somewhere. In mid-winter climo. Also feels like the St Lawrence Valley in southern Quebec is at like 150" of snowfall this season. Why do you think I made the bet with Ginx in late Jan no less? As a seasoned New England vet. I can look at a general pattern along with persistence and a little gut feeling .. and I know when it’s over. Climo may argue it’s early to call it, but there are some years you can see and know it’s over . This os one of those 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, eduggs said: The foreseeable future looks like basically more of what we've already seen a lot of this winter. Winter confined to far NE regions, particularly Maine. Spring-like to the SW. 735 days since I've observed moderate snow looks to continue... Definitely a latitudinal winter this time. However, there were places in Morris County that had more snow in Feb 2021 than my Maine foothills locale had for that whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Their graphic is messed up for ORH. It accidentally shows the Jan 2015 storm twice. The top spot at 34.5 is correct for storm total but the 31.9 is the one day Jan 27th total incorrectly listed as a storm total. It also missed Feb 1969 in Boston. (Unless they kick out 4-day events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah I noticed that, too. But I thought it was more interesting how the 1978 storm - in general - is slipping out of contention more suddenly since 2000. It's probable that it'll last at Boston and Providence but over all, it seems most top 5s are clustered since 2000, with more decadal spread prior. It should probably be in top 5 for ORH too but I’ve always been skeptical of their identical 10.1” measurements at exactly 10 to 1 QPF for both Feb 6 and 7 1978. Also observed snow depth went from 10” to 30” exactly matching the “storm total”. This tells me it was estimated after the storm ended. All of the evidence I’ve seen points me to about 26-28” at ORH in that storm. But unfortunately that’s what goes into the climate record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: It also missed Feb 1969 in Boston. (Unless they kick out 4-day events) The headline did specify “two day storm totals”. But yeah, Feb 69 was a lot longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Everything looks warmpack beater over the far interior NNE huh. Either you troll or have no idea about the far interior climo first week of Feb 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Don’t bother….they have agendas…pushing warmth constantly. Boston sets new record of -10F this morning, along with absolutely brutal windchill. But some called it meh. He also classified Mahk as far interior NNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Their graphic is messed up for ORH. It accidentally shows the Jan 2015 storm twice. The top spot at 34.5 is correct for storm total but the 31.9 is the one day Jan 27th total incorrectly listed as a storm total. That Boston 2003 should be 2005, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That Boston 2003 should be 2005, right? I don’t think so? If you look at Providence their 2005 storm was Jan 21-22. Boston’s 2003 is January 17-18. Then that would mean they had two monsters in a 3-4 day period in 05…that didn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Their graphic is messed up for ORH. It accidentally shows the Jan 2015 storm twice. The top spot at 34.5 is correct for storm total but the 31.9 is the one day Jan 27th total incorrectly listed as a storm total. Not to mention another error for Boston #1 spot. There was no storm on Jan 17-18 2003. Pretty sure it supposed to be Feb 2003, PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That Boston 2003 should be 2005, right? Nah, still 2003 just change Jan to Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I thought this graphic at NWS ...as we near the 45th anniversary of the 1978 storm, was pretty interesting... interesting there isn’t one storm in the top 5 for all 4 sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 The story of the winter . Rain Precipitation-wise, rainfall will be the favored type. Still looking at late Tuesday into Tuesday night as an opportunity, when a shortwave and weak cold front move across southern New England. Late next week looks complicated. One low pressure should move through the Great Lakes into northern New England late Thursday into Friday, dragging its associated front through our region. A second low pressure may then develop along the first cold front off the NJ/DE coast sometime Saturday. Am not expecting it to be raining the entire time Thursday into Saturday, but do not have enough confidence to pinpoint when those breaks might be at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The story of the winter . Rain Precipitation-wise, rainfall will be the favored type. Still looking at late Tuesday into Tuesday night as an opportunity, when a shortwave and weak cold front move across southern New England. Late next week looks complicated. One low pressure should move through the Great Lakes into northern New England late Thursday into Friday, dragging its associated front through our region. A second low pressure may then develop along the first cold front off the NJ/DE coast sometime Saturday. Am not expecting it to be raining the entire time Thursday into Saturday, but do not have enough confidence to pinpoint when those breaks might be at this juncture. And many were so worried over the lack of it in the summeh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Nah, still 2003 just change Jan to Feb. Oh ok. I just guessed it was wrong because in January 2005 Cambridge/Somerville had 30”+. Maybe the airport underperformed as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 52 minutes ago, tamarack said: Definitely a latitudinal winter this time. However, there were places in Morris County that had more snow in Feb 2021 than my Maine foothills locale had for that whole winter. Feb 1, 2021 was an excellent storm for northwestern NJ. And for sure the north country has endured some very lean years. The problem for my local region is that was the last decent storm to date. Some of the highest elevations of northern Morris County have had a few 3"+ events since then, but they were very localized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 we could get a couple inches tuesday night, and so far wunderground and the nws have snow for friday night saturday. Might be another cne nne deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Feb 1, 2021 was an excellent storm for northwestern NJ. And for sure the north country has endured some very lean years. The problem for my local region is that was the last decent storm to date. Some of the highest elevations of northern Morris County have had a few 3"+ events since then, but they were very localized. Seems like interior NNJ into interior SE NY has been in a pretty bad screw zone for a while…can extend that into W CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Sat 12z WPC map looks kinda interesting. But I don't see a high in SE Canada, though looks like there is room for one in the Scooter spot. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah I noticed that, too. But I thought it was more interesting how the 1978 storm - in general - is slipping out of contention more suddenly since 2000. It's probable that it'll last at Boston and Providence but over all, it seems most top 5s are clustered since 2000, with more decadal spread prior. Difference in measuring might play a role in that too. We’re they clearing a board every 6 hours in 1978? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why do you think I made the bet with Ginx in late Jan no less? As a seasoned New England vet. I can look at a general pattern along with persistence and a little gut feeling .. and I know when it’s over. Climo may argue it’s early to call it, but there are some years you can see and know it’s over . This os one of those Feb 4th with less than 4 inches to go BDL ORH for cripes sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Seems like interior NNJ into interior SE NY has been in a pretty bad screw zone for a while…can extend that into W CT Yup. With the climatological elevational and latitudinal dependence on top of it. But every 5-10 years this interior coastal plain area gets a payoff with a big coastal. We're just in a rough patch right now. I've lived in MA, NY, NJ... and the only 20" storm I've seen was in NJ. But also by far the worst winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Seems like interior NNJ into interior SE NY has been in a pretty bad screw zone for a while…can extend that into W CT February 2021 was good in that area but it’s sandwiched between lots of clunkers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I thought this graphic at NWS ...as we near the 45th anniversary of the 1978 storm, was pretty interesting... To this day I'll never believe some if the totals for '78 in regards to northern CT especially WOR. Compared to what we saw in Granby area they seem quite under done. Understandable the wind made measuring difficult but I don't buy lots of those measurements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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