WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: To be fair they've been mostly right with the warmth this year. One or two really cold days can't take away from how warm it’s been. That wasn’t my point. Let me be more clear, the point is it was said that this monster cold would not happen. It was said we needed to take 30 degrees off of the temps and then it may be more realistic. Those calls were flat out wrong. I don’t see these folks in here admitting they got it wrong? And also folks said it was meh…it was certainly not meh. Instead Record breaking for many. So yes, the winter has been warm and snowless, but that wasn’t the point here. A record breaking cold outbreak(that was touted not gonna happen), amidst a sea of warmth has indeed happened. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 definitely an amplified look at 500mb on the GEFS... hopefully we can find a way to depress heights initially, otherwise it'll be difficult to get a good track out of this nevertheless, it is looking more likely that we can see a legit storm, so it's worth keeping an eye on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 18 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: so you think my pack is gone by feb 14? You are the far interior of NNE. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You are the far interior of NNE. No. Berlin has much more "far interior" character than Boscowan, though not all that much farther from tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You are the far interior of NNE. No. I don't consider myself the far interior of NNE, but this may be semantics. We have the what is SNE CNE NNE conversation all of the time on the board. I consider myself the border between CNE and NNE, but still in the coastal plain. I am not in the foothills or the mountains. The southern extent of the snow pack isn't that far south of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: definitely an amplified look at 500mb on the GEFS... hopefully we can find a way to depress heights initially, otherwise it'll be difficult to get a good track out of this nevertheless, it is looking more likely that we can see a legit storm, so it's worth keeping an eye on it doesn't look negative yet, so it will track based on high pressure and confluence to its n and e? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: What? that's weird... NCEP has a paper out there about the CFS that says that it has modest cool bias - owing to the fact that it's parameterized with 1988 climate metrics. I posted this along with a link to the paper a couple weeks ago, folks. The opposite of a warm bias, is what they've formally published. It needs an upgrade - in other words ... - to account for climate change. whatever. Either way... it's got like repeating hits out there right through the end of the month. It's also got a dominating pattern construct over the hemisphere that is really quite - ironically - diametrically opposing that of the La Nina late winter --> spring climate. That's odd for a "Climate" Forecast System... but who knows why-for I think that paper was 2008. Theyve def upgraded CFS a couple times since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 terrific week upcoming, mild temps and laser sun angle! 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The problem I have pointed out to many though hoping for the shutout or breaking of the NYC record in our subforum though is that due to inevitable wavelength change and the fact the storm track has been active its unlikely we don't end up with 1-2 events that may even push us over double digits in the end. I'd feel more confident if we were parched like we were in 01-02 or 11-12 but there is too much activity to likely get 8 more weeks of misses 8 more weeks of winter in NYC? Annual average March snowfall in NYC is meager. After mid March it's downright uncommon. The immediate urban corridor has about 2 weeks of peak winter climo left - that's it. You can extend that to 4 weeks, including late season climo and maybe 6 weeks of fringe season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: it doesn't look negative yet, so it will track based on high pressure and confluence to its n and e? 150hr ensemble means rarely show trofs with negative tilts owing to the blending effect on variable individual members. Trofs will sharpen on the means as you move closer in lead time. SLP will form in the area of strongest upper level divergence. But this region often doesn't match the SLP position of the mean due to the same blending effect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 8 more weeks of winter in NYC? Annual average March snowfall in NYC is meager. After mid March it's downright uncommon. The immediate urban corridor has about 2 weeks of peak winter climo left - that's it. You can extend that to 4 weeks, including late season climo and maybe 6 weeks of fringe season.Come March 15th and beyond, it’s basically over for everyone south of New England minus some freak, anomalous event. At that point you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day and it only continues to get worse after that point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Euro is a shit model Smh 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a shit model Smh Stop buying day 10 marginal threats. Simple 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Stop buying day 10 marginal threats. Simple It insane how nothing is going right this winter. We can't even muster up a snow to rain event which usually occurs in bad winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 The first low hangs way back west, so there's no separate, second follow-up. And disaster ensues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Euro is a shit model SmhWhen I told you that it was not a good NYC snow pattern I really meant it. I wasn’t trolling you or being a dick. We aren’t New England, something that may work for them could be garbage for us. IMO given this pattern, until there is a legit -NAO block and a 50/50 low you can forget a NYC snowstorm, especially with a marginal airmass. Same story if there’s a full latitude -PNA trough dumped in the west….bad for NYC snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 The foreseeable future looks like basically more of what we've already seen a lot of this winter. Winter confined to far NE regions, particularly Maine. Spring-like to the SW. 735 days since I've observed moderate snow looks to continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 It's doing what the GFS is doing ... it's carrying along internal destructive interference; but in the cast of this run, it ends up a big bag of nothing because of it. There is no take away from any run - not last night's 00z or 12z. I elaborated on the 00z run just to parse out what it was indicating for the sake of it alone. There's not much to be gleaned, certainly not vested in the first place, in any deterministic sense of it... The reaction must purely be missing a drug dose in behavior. lord - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 This isn't meant to rub salt in any wounds, because even up here we are on the southern edge of the gradient on many of these runs like the 12z EURO... but it is still mind-boggling how many Day 10 totals have had 0.0" modeled snowfall from like BOS-HFD-POU. Like not even some fantasy half inch thrown in there somewhere. In mid-winter climo. Also feels like the St Lawrence Valley in southern Quebec is at like 150" of snowfall this season. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This isn't meant to rub salt in any wounds, because even up here we are on the southern edge of the gradient on many of these runs like the 12z EURO... but it is still mind-boggling how many Day 10 totals have had 0.0" modeled snowfall from like BOS-HFD-POU. Like not even some fantasy half inch thrown in there somewhere. In mid-winter climo. Also feels like the St Lawrence Valley in southern Quebec is at like 150" of snowfall this season. I'm curious ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a shit model Smh Wait til we get a legit threat within day 5 on all models to get invested til then…. Let it go, let it goo… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 hours ago, jbenedet said: Pack going to get beatin’ back to the far interior of NNE, over next 10 days. Everything looks warm; teles, MJO, GEFS and CPC saying the same, ... ... ... ... Imho, the bottom two GEF series don't really reflect much support for NOAA's outlook. Those ridge aspects are very transient, and in fact, there's enough individual members with top heavy +PP draped N of the 558 isohypses; as well, that's confluence you see between ~ Lake Huron and the southern tip of JB... It all likelier points to pinning the mean polar boundary S of what those heights might at first suggest. That's A B, I understand why-for the top NOAA prognostics. The longer term climate and teleconnector markers are overwhelmingly converged upon some form or another of a massive SD warm anomaly over the eastern continent. I mean... La Nina climo + MJO's running around 3-6 phase spaces + the warm bursts in Feb trend of the last 5 years ... anything else we can add? These do not protract winter. We just are not seeing it in the dailies ...like, at all! Which is weird. I just wonder if/when the other shoe falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a shit model Smh It alone nailed the most historic event this winter from d7. That’s worth something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: It alone nailed the most historic event the winter from d7. That’s worth something. Worth 0.0 to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a shit model Smh It nails fropa’s and cold shots thesedays. Can’t sniff out LR patterns anymore or east coast systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Well, just like 2016 this winter sucks ass(at least so far), but just like that winter we have a historic cold outbreak(very short lived as ‘16 was too) in a sea of warmth. That winter did feature a historic mid Atlantic monster blizzard, that did clip parts of SNE with decent snow at least. So the question begs to be asked, will this horrid winter at least feature one good snow event as that total clunker did? We can hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It nails fropa’s and cold shots thesedays. Can’t sniff out LR patterns anymore or east coast systems. Ya, it’s a shell of its former self unfortunately. Sad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 41 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Wait til we get a legit threat within day 5 on all models to get invested til then…. Let it go, let it goo… 7 days for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Worth 0.0 to me. Understandable bias but the cold shot was far more impactful vs a 6-12 event for the population. Forecasters here were late in warning because the GFS shat all over itself. I’m a weather guy-I relish all extreme events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: Understandable bias but the cold shot was far more impactful vs a 6-12 event for the population. Forecasters here were late in warning because the GFS shat all over itself. I’m a weather guy-I relish all extreme events. Ya this arctic blast is definitely impressive and historic. And yes the GFS sucked with it for sure. Be nice to get a legit threat to track too though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now