February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s the only model that is remotely interesting. Most guidance is garbage and warm in that timeframe. Good luck threading the needle on that one. We haven’t been able to do it all winter.

Ensemble mean is instrumental at this range -

At least from my position - the discussion is just wrt what the model runs illustrate, on the 00z cycle.  I realize people are starved to the brink of sanity for some semblance of a non CC afflicted season ( LOL... j/k), and thus float a thumb over the apoplexy a-bomb button.  But there's no aver here as to a D8.5 - 10 ranged scenario. 

Personally...mm the pattern we are seeing emerge in the ~ 9th -15th window is uncharted territory.  I.e., hasn't happened this year.  Which is to say, a relaxed flow +PNAP structure occurring while there is lingering/ample hydrostatic gradient, N-S, through mid latitude continent.  It may be difficult to do, but I would encourage folks look at events within the period in question more uniquely, as the erstwhile persistence may take a hiatus for that time span.  

...probably not...but I thought I'd advance the impertinent implication of actual lucid objectivity, anyway  haha 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ensemble mean is instrumental at this range -

At least from my position - the discussion is just wrt what the model runs illustrate, on the 00z cycle.  I realize people are starved to the brink of sanity for some semblance of a non CC afflicted season ( LOL... j/k), and thus float a thumb over the apoplexy a-bomb button.  But there's no aver here as to a D8.5 - 10 ranged scenario. 

Personally...mm the pattern we are seeing emerge in the ~ 9th -15th window is uncharted territory.  I.e., hasn't happened this year.  Which is to say, a relaxed flow +PNAP structure occurring while there is lingering/ample hydrostatic gradient, N-S, through mid latitude continent.  It may be difficult to do, but I would encourage folks look at events within the period in question more uniquely, as the erstwhile persistence may take a hiatus for that time span.  

...probably not...but I thought I'd advance the impertinent implication of actual lucid objectivity, anyway  haha 

Don’t bother… he gone. He’s gone most every event, but this year he’s jumped off the Tobin long ago. 

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pack going to get beatin’ back to the far interior of NNE, over next 10 days. 
 

Everything looks warm; teles, MJO, GEFS and CPC saying the same, 

 

Everything looks warmpack beater over the far interior NNE huh. Either you troll or have no idea about the far interior climo first week of Feb

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everything looks warm over the far interior NNE huh. Either you troll or have idea 

Don’t bother….they have agendas…pushing warmth constantly.  
 

Boston sets new record of -10F this morning, along with absolutely brutal windchill.  But some called it meh. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t bother….they have agendas…pushing warmth constantly.  
 

Boston sets new record of -10F this morning.  But some called it meh. 

I added ens print outs for his far interior.  EPS temps all day. Toss the GEFS. Don't forget the other day he said 20s today, now it's warmer than yesterday.  Yea no shit

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s the only model that is remotely interesting. Most guidance is garbage and warm in that timeframe. Good luck threading the needle on that one. We haven’t been able to do it all winter.

Ok but you responded to a post about the 00z euro. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the CFS has a clue. That’s a cold look.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the CFS has a clue. That’s a cold look.

Isn’t that thing horrible? And it’s usually very warm all the time…no? 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok but you responded to a post about the 00z euro. 

That’s his default response to everything . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Isn’t that thing horrible? And it’s usually very warm all the time…no? 

Its okay within 30 days...

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the CFS has a clue. That’s a cold look.

Ha!  I was just looking at that -

I applaud your bravery in daring mention that match in this perfect saturation vapeor pressure ratio of gasoline and air mixture ... You got some goodly sized plums there. Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

The ICON solution is f'ing awesome...  (12z )...

I really have come to the conclusion this model does not belong in the pantheon of the majors, based on my own observation of it performance - it's just outclassed.  But hey,...I gave the f'er a real chance and it blew it too often.

That said, the run in a vacuum has about 3" of sleet and ice for interior SNE, in a waling Nor'easter that would undoubtedly then transition as an exit 6" of snow on top.   I'm just sick enough to think that might be a funner experience than having that snow...

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Isn’t that thing horrible? And it’s usually very warm all the time…no? 

 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!  I was just looking at that -

I applaud your bravery in daring mention that match in this perfect saturation vapeor pressure ratio of gasoline and air mixture ... You got some goodly sized plums there. Lol

I feel like it always shows a torch lol. So maybe it’s onto something. 

[Typhoon Tip]

What? 

that's weird...  NCEP has a paper out there about the CFS that says that it has modest cool bias - owing to the fact that it's parameterized with 1988 climate metrics.

I posted this along with a link to the paper a couple weeks ago, folks.   The opposite of a warm bias, is what they've formally published. It needs an upgrade - in other words ... - to account for climate change.   

whatever. Either way... it's got like repeating hits out there right through the end of the month.  It's also got a dominating pattern construct over the hemisphere that is really quite - ironically - diametrically opposing that of the La Nina late winter --> spring climate.  That's odd for a "Climate" Forecast System... but who knows why-for

[DJln491]

GFS starting to come around?

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t bother….they have agendas…pushing warmth constantly.  
 

Boston sets new record of -10F this morning, along with absolutely brutal windchill.  But some called it meh. 

To be fair they've been mostly right with the warmth this year. One or two really cold days can't take away from how warm its been.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everything looks warmpack beater over the far interior NNE huh. Either you troll or have no idea about the far interior climo first week of Feb

No. The snow pack line gets beat back to the far interior. That is the far interior. They will maintain a pack, of course.

The rest go brown. Thanks for seeing the same. 

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

To be fair they've been mostly right with the warmth this year. One or two really cold days can't take away from how warm its been.

Recency bias. When this cold disappears tomorrow they’ll be back to bitchin’ about a rat winter.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Recency bias. When this cold disappears tomorrow they’ll be back to bitchin’ about a rat winter.

Yup. Boston is pushing 50 by tomorrow which is crazy given this mornings reading 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

GFS starting to come around?

Mm...looks unremarkably different than prior runs to me.

'Sides...I need the ensembles to stop sending the system up the St L seaway for starters... The operational runs... okay - but we're at a range whence the oper version may as well just be another ensemble member. 

The EPS mean did have more a system like it's deterministic version ( 00Z) but, it has a structure that suggests the deterministic version is an intense outlier.  Euro has history for amp bias at this range, too. 

I would say the 00z deterministic Euro is lofty hoped outlier until we see some semblance of agreement coming from the varied other sources. 

[snowman19]

The ICON solution is f'ing awesome...  (12z )...
I really have come to the conclusion this model does not belong in the pantheon of the majors, based on my own observation of it performance - it's just outclassed.  But hey,...I gave the f'er a real chance and it blew it too often.
That said, the run in a vacuum has about 3" of sleet and ice for interior SNE, in a waling Nor'easter that would undoubtedly then transition as an exit 6" of snow on top.   I'm just sick enough to think that might be a funner experience than having that snow...

The CMC doesn’t even develop a storm anymore on the new run

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CMC doesn’t even develop a storm anymore on the new run

GGEM model keeps putting all the emphasis on the lead side of the trough/S/W that's running up through the 10th... 

The Euro does much less of that. It clamps that response down to almost negligible and waits for the after S/W to rotate around ...and yadda yadda yadda.

The GFS has both... It triggers a lead... but then minors it out as a smear, then detonates a new coastal with not enough cold. 

yeah, solutions are all over the place.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not for not .... The Euro seemed to perform best with this weird cold event.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not for not .... The Euro seemed to perform best with this weird cold event.

It did. Now if it could do that for winter events lol.

[mahk_webstah]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the 00z guidance...  

The GFS picked up where it left off at 18z ( and perhaps priors-), propagating a L/W across the mid latitude continent ...unable to give any one of the finite S/Ws contained a mechanical proxy. This finite scale destructive interference still manages to activate the barocinic leaf and QPF between the TV and NE region, but keeps the totality unable to fully connect with the best perceived S/W timing into the backside of the L/W ... Such that the lead activated axis actually still sets up a substantial ice storm signal along Rt 2 to roughly RUT-CON in NH with snow of unknown amt above, cool rains south...  It's basically a busted ravioli system in the GFS...  It ends it all as a period of snow collapsing SE as the rest of the trough then limps through consequently too weak with overall cyclone proficiency.

The Euro ...possibly owing to the 4-d smoothing tech it applies/scrubs the charts with out in time ... caries a L/W across that has less of that intra-scaled tussle.. Namely, it damps out the lead impulse(s) more, such that the main one coming into the backside can take proxy and is thus able to catch up and physically connect with the b-c axis more proficiency...and the coastal becomes an easy mark at that point - in part because there is just an exquisitely perfectly timed polar-arctic high moving through Quebec as the gunk approaches the M/A coast, underneath.   Boom...     - in an aside note, the fact that it's not an overly conked out hyper -bombed as a result, but just has a sensible/seasonable Nor'easter in the cinema,  gives this particular model run much more Oscar buzz for me... 

Both the simplicity and the end result of the Euro appeal to me.  Maybe GFS still gettin its shite together

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Both the simplicity and the end result of the Euro appeal to me.  Maybe GFS still gettin its shite together

 

Yeah...I intimated a similar take on that Euro earlier... I like the fact that it's not a conked out hyperbole bomb, and is taming itself to just a seasonal looking coastal. 

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Everything looks warmpack beater over the far interior NNE huh. Either you troll or have no idea about the far interior climo first week of Feb

thats not a pack destroyer, for sure.  Nighttime lows, and I bet many low dewpoints.  Hell, we had a few low 40s days since the 25" in 6 day period and what the pack does is melts a bit, but really consolidates and then solidifies.  I still have 15-18+ in the woods and a foot in much of the fields.  Resilient up here at this time of the year, unless we get heavy rain and high dews.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

If you loop the 12z gfs 10:1 snowfall map and the orientation of the snow surprises you please slap yourself senseless and repeat the process until it doesn’t 

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No. The snow pack line gets beat back to the far interior. That is the far interior. They will maintain a pack, of course.

The rest go brown. Thanks for seeing the same. 

so you think my pack is gone by feb 14?

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I intimated a similar take on that Euro earlier... I like the fact that it's not a conked out hyperbole bomb, and is taming itself to just a seasonal looking coastal. 

 

Yeah that's usually a good sign but I wouldn't bet on a favorable outcome south of NNE. 

It does appear that there could be one more favorable period between Feb 20 and March 15.

CFS weeklies show it. MJO trying to move into more favorable phases by then as well. The seasonal transition periods are always interesting too, can really shake up a stale pattern