February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The fact that the GFS is showing an inland runner is a red flag IMO. At this range you want the GFS being a complete miss to the east given it’s progressive/suppressed bias because you know it’s only going to correct further and further west as we get closer in time. Normally if there’s going to be an east coast snowstorm, at this point in time before the event, the GFS is a whiff while all the other models show something hitting

That’s not the gfs bias anymore. This isn’t 1996.

[snowman19]

That’s not the gfs bias anymore. This isn’t 1996.

The GFS just did it with the last snow event for Boston. It was the furthest east of all models and kept correcting further and further west right up until the event. Go back and look at the progression of model runs from it. It had it as a total miss at one point

[Torch Tiger]

The gfs ens have looked hugger/cuttery for that 11th event from when it appeared a few days ago.

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS just did it with the last snow event for Boston. It was the furthest east of all models and kept correcting further and further west right up until the event. Go back and look at the progression of model runs from it. It had it as a total miss at one point

That's one storm though. Is that indicative of a built in bias or just the GFS being wrong in one direction for one storm

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS just did it with the last snow event for Boston. It was the furthest east of all models and kept correcting further and further west right up until the event. Go back and look at the progression of model runs from it. It had it as a total miss at one point

It still happens sure but it’s been through so many upgrades and changes. I have not seen data confirming such an extreme bias exists anymore. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It still happens sure but it’s been through so many upgrades and changes. I have not seen data confirming such an extreme bias exists anymore. 

Yeah I’m not sure it matters especially this far out. It’s a hugger risk regardless.

[CoastalWx]

Although eps is a ways  offshore. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m not sure it matters especially this far out. It’s a hugger risk regardless.

It’s been basically a lock to forecast a hugger with a up and In gradient look for a while 

how is the Indian Ocean forcing or whatever looking like

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s been basically a lock to forecast a hugger with a up and In gradient look for a while 

how is the Indian Ocean forcing or whatever looking like

I haven’t looked. Probably pushing into maritime continent. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven’t looked. Probably pushing into maritime continent. 

Seems like you gave up on monitoring that weeks ago , did you just throw up your hands and say Troughs to Baja thru March ?

[SnowGoose69]

42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s not the gfs bias anymore. This isn’t 1996.

 

It depends what the overall pattern is...generally if you've got an overall NA setup favorable for snow on the EC the GFS bias of showing the low in Bermuda at D4-8 works...when you do not its less reliable

[SnowGoose69]

I love how the GEFS/GFS again is exhibiting the Op/ensemble discrepancy beyond D10 we have seen seemingly all winter long and the ensemble has always ended up correct.  The last day or so now the Op is a full blown December 2015 SER  2/14 onward while the ensemble is trending better....meanwhile in stretches where we were gonna torch the ensemble was a torch and the Op was showing January 94.  Not sure why that has been happening.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems like you gave up on monitoring that weeks ago , did you just throw up your hands and say Troughs to Baja thru March ?

I gave up on winter lol. I can look later. 

[moneypitmike]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m not sure it matters especially this far out. It’s a hugger risk regardless.

Going with the 'anything but snow' pattern of this winter is a safe bet.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Warm 

On 00z euro?? That looked good to me. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Going with the 'anything but snow' pattern of this winter is a safe bet.

The problem I have pointed out to many though hoping for the shutout or breaking of the NYC record in our subforum though is that due to inevitable wavelength change and the fact the storm track has been active its unlikely we don't end up with 1-2 events that may even push us over double digits in the end.  I'd feel more confident if we were parched like we were in 01-02 or 11-12 but there is too much activity to likely get 8 more weeks of misses 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I gave up on winter lol. I can look later. 

I had a feeling -Understandable lol. 
 

You need a place up north for some winter weekends - get the kids into skiing and then see it thru . 

[Chris12WX]

How many days until it’s worth paying attention to something? Check back in during cutter on 9th?

[CoastalWx]

Euro op looked pretty good I thought. Maybe a little mild in SE areas, but overall it was good.

[mahk_webstah]

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It depends what the overall pattern is...generally if you've got an overall NA setup favorable for snow on the EC the GFS bias of showing the low in Bermuda at D4-8 works...when you do not its less reliable

That seems right to me.  It is a question of what is on the map that would push this in one direction or another.  For example if there was blocking or confluence possibly in place, we would look at colder and further east as a distinct possibility.  I know yesterday Will mentioned a high building in as the storm developed to our sw.  That seems like a good option.  I also notice that the 10-day has consistently for 3 days shown the temps cooling significantly from Friday to Sunday.  Also notice that day 7 WPC now has some snow probs (slight, but new) from northern mass up into NNE.

[snowman19]

The problem I have pointed out to many though hoping for the shutout or breaking of the NYC record in our subforum though is that due to inevitable wavelength change and the fact the storm track has been active its unlikely we don't end up with 1-2 events that may even push us over double digits in the end.  I'd feel more confident if we were parched like we were in 01-02 or 11-12 but there is too much activity to likely get 8 more weeks of misses 

While a total shutout is unlikely, I would say if NYC gets to 3/1 with only a 0.4 snow total still, the chances of a big comeback would be extremely slim IMO. March climo for NYC would argue against it

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

While a total shutout is unlikely, I would say if NYC gets to 3/1 with only a 0.4 snow total still, the chances of a big comeback would be extremely slim IMO. March climo for NYC would argue against it

March climo can be thrown out the winter since March has been snowier than December. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

March climo can be thrown out the winter since March has been snowier than December. 

I anticipate a virtual winter wonderland for NYC this March 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On 00z euro?? That looked good to me. 

Yeah..not sure what they are looking at ...or think they are looking at -   late to party this morning but that 00z Euro run was a classic Nor'easter.

Snow NYC-BOS corridor, even penetration E CT RI and parts of SE Mass, with typical flip to rain the Cape...   Just talking about this one run, mind you.  The 204 position and synoptic metrics are almost perfect in this rendition here:

 

That's probably 8-12" for almost everyone in the forum queue, verbatim.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..not sure what they are looking at ...or think they are looking at -   late to party this morning but that 00z Euro run was a classic Nor'easter.

Snow NYC-BOS corridor, even penetration E CT RI and parts of SE Mass, with typical flip to rain the Cape...   Just talking about this one run, mind you.  The 204 position and synoptic metrics are almost perfect in this rendition here:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f204.gif

That's probably 8-12" for almost everyone in the forum queue, verbatim.

So that is Friday night-Sunday?  Before, some models were Thurs-Friday, and I think the Euro was Sunday.  So now we are sort of in-between, and consolidated to one system?

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

While a total shutout is unlikely, I would say if NYC gets to 3/1 with only a 0.4 snow total still, the chances of a big comeback would be extremely slim IMO. March climo for NYC would argue against it

Well that’s a month away for you NYC guys, and us SNE folks too. A month is quite a chunk of time,  in the heart of winter, and the snowiest month of the year(Feb), to say no more snow for most folks south of NNE. Those predicting that and going with the persistence idea, are starting to play with fire imo.  

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..not sure what they are looking at ...or think they are looking at -   late to party this morning but that 00z Euro run was a classic Nor'easter.

Snow NYC-BOS corridor, even penetration E CT RI and parts of SE Mass, with typical flip to rain the Cape...   Just talking about this one run, mind you.  The 204 position and synoptic metrics are almost perfect in this rendition here:

 

That's probably 8-12" for almost everyone in the forum queue, verbatim.

The persistence idea has blinded some folks badly. When something(a particular model run) looks good, they see the same thing…warmth/rain.  Blinded by the horror to date, is not objective reasoning for looking ahead.  Doesn’t mean the 0z Euro will verify, but I don’t how one can call that a bad look for SNE?   Some broken weenies not seeing things correctly. 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

So that is Friday night-Sunday?  Before, some models were Thurs-Friday, and I think the Euro was Sunday.  So now we are sort of in-between, and consolidated to one system?

Re the 00z guidance...  

The GFS picked up where it left off at 18z ( and perhaps priors-), propagating a L/W across the mid latitude continent ...unable to give any one of the finite S/Ws contained a mechanical proxy. This finite scale destructive interference still manages to activate the barocinic leaf and QPF between the TV and NE region, but keeps the totality unable to fully connect with the best perceived S/W timing into the backside of the L/W ... Such that the lead activated axis actually still sets up a substantial ice storm signal along Rt 2 to roughly RUT-CON in NH with snow of unknown amt above, cool rains south...  It's basically a busted ravioli system in the GFS...  It ends it all as a period of snow collapsing SE as the rest of the trough then limps through consequently too weak with overall cyclone proficiency.

The Euro ...possibly owing to the 4-d smoothing tech it applies/scrubs the charts with out in time ... caries a L/W across that has less of that intra-scaled tussle.. Namely, it damps out the lead impulse(s) more, such that the main one coming into the backside can take proxy and is thus able to catch up and physically connect with the b-c axis more proficiency...and the coastal becomes an easy mark at that point - in part because there is just an exquisitely perfectly timed polar-arctic high moving through Quebec as the gunk approaches the M/A coast, underneath.   Boom...     - in an aside note, the fact that it's not an overly conked out hyper -bombed as a result, but just has a sensible/seasonable Nor'easter in the cinema,  gives this particular model run much more Oscar buzz for me... 

[jbenedet]

Pack going to get beatin’ back to the far interior of NNE, over next 10 days. 
 

Everything looks warm; teles, MJO, GEFS and CPC saying the same, 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

On 00z euro?? That looked good to me. 

It’s the only model that is remotely interesting. Most guidance is garbage and warm in that timeframe. Good luck threading the needle on that one. We haven’t been able to do it all winter.