February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

And this was the point where q omega nailed the idea of the monster -nao hooking up with the se ridge. Not sure if he got a lucky shot in the dark but it’s made him right more than anyone else this winter. Jerry remembers 

Where is the SE ridge there?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Where is the SE ridge there?

psychosis

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just can't believe how fast the time has gone by...

When we "joked" ( while looking sideways ...) about that, I remember thinking 3...maybe 4 seasons.

Then ( and funny you brought this up..), I was just thinking about that "pay back climate" BS ( which is really is... but for the sake of discussion - LOL ) last week, with 2015 in mind...

"Yeah...I guess we're still - wait a second!"   

That was 7 ... 8 f'n years ago. 

Here's the deal, ... that was three.5 weeks of that onslaught of intermittent deep cold (more on then off) with well timed snow events - snow events whose results ( I've always thought ) were inflated by high ratio circumstance.  It kind of really was about cold in that period of time... You mix any precipitating machinery into that kind of cold and we'd probably fair at minimum, okay. But we put a couple of coastal into the fray of the 3.5 week trip and next thing we know...   we have to pay for it for a decade!? ...That just doesn't seem like 'climate justice'

Some crude philosophy on this.. Honestly not what I had in mind. Even in sarcasm, that seems a bit steep.  But lets look at this objectively:   How much snow did we get in each of the 7 winters since?   How many of those were above normal vs how many were below normal.   Of those that are above normal, what percent of average were the positive departures. Of those that were below... do the same arithmetic.  Then, compare those - which has the greater value... 

So long as we're "pretending" there is any veracity to the "pay back" expectation, we can try to make some sense within itself.  

I just think that 2015 ( in retrospect ) ...might have happened on a climate island?  ..so to speak. I think those "rogue wave" historic things have to be given allowance space, as things that are going to happen.  You just accept that within all complex, noisy systems in nature, they will at times engender exceptional outliers that don't represent the "genetics" of the machinery.  It's almost like you remove 1888, 1978, 2015 ...etc ( pick an exceptional outlier), the 1930s heat... 2005 hurricane season... and just calculate a climate that does not include those.   This latter, softer longer termed mean would be our real expectation curve.  Just be aware that we live in an environment where rogues can happen just like a vast sea of countless 20 ft swells rears a single 100 foot monster, once, ...maybe.

Yeah after 2015....we got this:

2015-16....total turd, but it was a super nino....didn't totally act like the prototypical super nino ala 1997-98 or 1982-83....but it was close enough in terms of our own sensible wx. Warmth and relatively low snow (epic low snow in NNE and far western SNE....eastern areas not to much)....though we did get the rogue 36 hour cold shot that winter.

2016-17....Above normal winter temp-wise,  but also above normal snowfall. Had the first of the 70+ February warm spells. Though March went full winter shortly after.

2017-18....Pretty close to normal temps but very skewed on how that happened....arctic cold was plentiful in the first half of that winter from Dec 2017 through first 10 days of Jan 2018 and then we torched for the better part of the next 6 weeks including another 70+ mid.late February deal.....before winter stormed back in March with near-historic snow totals (ironically starting with a 37F rainstorm that busted a 6-10" snowfall forecast over the deeper interior). Snowfall ended up way above normal that winter.

2018-19.....Temps near normal that winter too. Maybe slightly above normal but no real mega torches like the previous two years. Snowfall below normal except right near coast which used 3/4/19 snowbomb to sneak above normal.

2019-20.....Temp above normal and snowfall below normal. Started off promising with that Dec 1-3, 2019 cutoff dropping 1-2 feet of snow over the interior and then the rest of the winter was mostly a total turd. No February 70+ torches, but it did have an early March (Mar 9-10th or so) torch of similar magnitude to those 2017 and 2018 warm spells.

2020-21.....This was prob the best winter since that 2017-18 snow juggernaut. Temps were a bit above normal, but we had a pretty prolific 3 weeks of snowfall between Jan 26th and mid February while avoiding any major melting. Most of interior SNE finished above normal for snowfall....coast got jobbed a bit...esp in that Feb 1, 2021 cutoff.

2021-22.....Last winter we've discussed plenty as it was more recent, but it was more frustrating than anything. We had an epic January tee'd up for us....the pitcher threw a hanging curveball and we popped it up instead of sending it over the Green Monster. That 1/17 stemwinder really cost us an epic month....basically a "how do you turn a KU into a front ender that gets washed away?".....that storm is your answer. Exotic full-phase that gives it a sharp left turn due north into the CT River valley....anything less and it's a KU blizzard. Obviously Boston and nearby got the epic blizzard 12 days later, but back in the interior, it was "merely" a great snowstorm....and wasn't quite enough to get rid of the 1/17 stench. We did get a good SWFE in late February, but then winter went out with a whimper in March.

 

This winter needs no commentary in this post.....lol. We know what's happened.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

And this was the point where q omega nailed the idea of the monster -nao hooking up with the se ridge. Not sure if he got a lucky shot in the dark but it’s made him right more than anyone else this winter. Jerry remembers 

I don't see any SE ridge there at all. Heights are all well below normal over the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there was literally no way that anyone could have foreseen that happening. just really shit luck. roll the dice with that pattern 10 times and we'd probably get crushed 7 

there was also the potent follow up wave that moved onshore 12-24 hours too late and the ridge collapsed out west. an exercise in futility

if we had cashed in on both, we'd be talking about this winter much differently

January was a shit show... +NAO, West-biased PNA and strong PAC jet just acting to pin the entirety of the hemispheric reservoir of cold over in Siberia and pin a trough on the west coast. Good example of how index values can be misleading. Yes, PNA was positive, but being centered off of west coast rendered it basically an RNA. Yea, AO was negative, but without any poleward Aleutian ridging to tap Siberia, all it did was pool the cold over there. Northern tier of the US probably would have been better off with a +AO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

There are plenty of people that will flaunt verification of a mild winter, or "ratter", but none of them for the right reason. No one predicted this flawlessly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IMO, getting the seasonal teleconnections correct is akin to "showing the work" in math class...you get that wrong while seemingly capturing the overall tenor of the winter, then you were at least as lucky as skilled...and yes, I hold myself to that standard.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are plenty of people that will flaunt verification of a mild winter, or "ratter", but none of them for the right reason. No one predicted this flawlessly.

Mild isn't hard to predict these days. But a ratter like this so far? Nope..I certainly did not expect it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Mild isn't hard to predict these days. But a ratter like this so far? Nope..I certainly did not expect it. 

Right. Technically, I had a mild winter forecasted...but not this. January was nuts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Raindance was far and away the best outlook IMO...but even he got lucky on December...had a +AO/NAO.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

...I'm going with Chuckles on this one.

 

Impossible there wasn't a cloud in the sky this morning.  Did they bring him out in the dark?

[Damage In Tolland]

As of now unless the forecaster predicted a warm, much below snow winter , the forecasts are graded as F. Strictly speaking in terms of temps and snowfall. If that changes thru end of Morch grades can be adjusted. There were many near normal to AN snow forecasts issued this winter with normal to slightly AN temps. As of today, all get F’s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As of now unless the forecaster predicted a warm, much below snow winter , the forecasts are graded as F. Strictly speaking in terms of temps and snowfall. If that changes thru end of Morch grades can be adjusted. 

Agree.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree.

I went low on snowfall and still get an F 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I went low on snowfall and still get an F 

Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January. 

Until we actually just lived thru it . And boy did it blow 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Impossible there wasn't a cloud in the sky this morning.  Did they bring him out in the dark?

He saw his shadow…don’t know what that BS is?   Oh, that was the CT Rodent???  I was meaning Phil from PA. 

[powderfreak]

And now a bunch of us in NNE are thinking, it was +7 to +11 for temps in January but above average on snow, hmmm, maybe it’s not the worst?  Just like when a -NAO leads to suppression, we no longer like -NAOs .

This month will be cited for decades to come in the “it can be ridiculously mild and still snow in NNE” lectures, ha.

[Spanks45]

18 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s always a bright side. Glad you found one. We were ready to install our solar system two weeks ago until the roof inspector called it off. We need a new roof within 3 years now, ugh. No solar until we do. 

Oh no, sorry to hear that. We were in the same situation. We had 3 roof companies come out to confirm what the solar company determined regarding our roof. They all agreed the roof needed replacement sooner rather than later. We ended up having the roof done by a company recommended by the solar company, everything went without hiccups.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January. 

It’s obscene, and has me thinking that while unlikely, we may very well be in a regime that blows past climatological minimums here in the lowlands of CT to produce an all time ratter.

Sure, we can get a few inches on the front end of a SWFE, but everything that could go wrong has, and there’s no end in sight. 

[bwt3650]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

And now a bunch of us in NNE are thinking, it was +7 to +11 for temps in January but above average on snow, hmmm, maybe it’s not the worst?  Just like when a -NAO leads to suppression, we no longer like -NAOs .

This month will be cited for decades to come in the “it can be ridiculously mild and still snow in NNE” lectures, ha.

just bring the moisture, right?  What was the actual number above average?  The last ten days have rocked, but I'm surprised it got above average after the first 10 days of Jan.  Nearly bare ground for New Years is a tough start.

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Oh no, sorry to hear that. We were in the same situation. We had 3 roof companies come out to confirm what the solar company determined regarding our roof. They all agreed the roof needed replacement sooner rather than later. We ended up having the roof done by a company recommended by the solar company, everything went without hiccups.

My solar system has been having issues for 28 months now.  When working, it is amazing.  But overall getting any issues fixed is a gigantic headache, with this one going on for 2+ years.  Hopefully you didn't use a Sunpower company, that's all i will say.

[SouthCoastMA]

So, aside from the low % shot of a followup wave amplifying near 2/12, we punt through 2/18 it seems. I'm not sold that the last 1/3 of February or early March is definitely going to suck. If it does, I sure hope it's warm at least. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS was certainly above normal next week but by no means a torch in N MA.  Looked like upper 30's to 40.

[metagraphica]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January. 

Not sure if they've released info for your neck of the woods but down here....

NOUS41 KOKX 011951
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
020800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
251 PM EST WED FEB 1 2023

...RECORD HIGH MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SET AT ALL SIX LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES...

THE RECORD HIGH MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS SET FOR THE MONTH OF 
JANUARY AT ALL SIX OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA:

CENTRAL PARK: 
NEW RECORD: 43.5 | OLD RECORD 43.2 (1932)
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1869 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT: 
NEW RECORD: 43.3 | OLD RECORD 41.5 (2006) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1939 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

KENNEDY AIRPORT: 
NEW RECORD: 41.8 | OLD RECORD 40.5 (1950)
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

ISLIP, NY: 
NEW RECORD: 41.1 | OLD RECORD 39.1 (1998) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

NEWARK, NJ: 
NEW RECORD: 44.0 | OLD RECORD 42.0 (1932) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

BRIDGEPORT, CT: 
NEW RECORD: 39.9 | OLD RECORD 36.9 (2017) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Not sure if they've released info for your neck of the woods but down here....

NOUS41 KOKX 011951
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
020800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
251 PM EST WED FEB 1 2023

...RECORD HIGH MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SET AT ALL SIX LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES...

THE RECORD HIGH MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS SET FOR THE MONTH OF 
JANUARY AT ALL SIX OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES IN THE TRI-STATE AREA:

CENTRAL PARK: 
NEW RECORD: 43.5 | OLD RECORD 43.2 (1932)
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1869 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT: 
NEW RECORD: 43.3 | OLD RECORD 41.5 (2006) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1939 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

KENNEDY AIRPORT: 
NEW RECORD: 41.8 | OLD RECORD 40.5 (1950)
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

ISLIP, NY: 
NEW RECORD: 41.1 | OLD RECORD 39.1 (1998) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

NEWARK, NJ: 
NEW RECORD: 44.0 | OLD RECORD 42.0 (1932) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

BRIDGEPORT, CT: 
NEW RECORD: 39.9 | OLD RECORD 36.9 (2017) 
RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. 

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

I don't think any site here broke the monthly record except ORH (by 0.1F), but that is kind of an asterisk because ORH has missing data for a few days in 1913 that would bring it past 2023 whereas the other sites do not.

For BOS, it was 5th warmest.

For BDL/HFD, it was 3rd warmest

For PVD, it was it was 3rd warmest

For MQE, it was 2nd warmest.

[weathafella]

I just checked my records-9 inches 2/1/21

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Season to date 

[weathafella]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January. 

With a boatload of qpf to boot!

[Great Snow 1717]

38 minutes ago, FPizz said:

My solar system has been having issues for 28 months now.  When working, it is amazing.  But overall getting any issues fixed is a gigantic headache, with this one going on for 2+ years.  Hopefully you didn't use a Sunpower company, that's all i will say.

I can't tell you how many people I know that WISH they had never gone the solar route...numerous solar companies have been sued by state attorney general in numerous states.