Allsnow Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 25 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Agreed, you should hit 70 this month Wow!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Groundhog saw its shadow. 6 more weeks of spring continues! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 There's a chance at something around the 10-11th before it goes super torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I don't have the numbers in front of me, but this will go down at least top 5 warm winter, maybe warmest depending on Feb. December kind of is an anchor with temps near normal, but Jan was an inferno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't have the numbers in front of me, but this will go down at least top 5 warm winter, maybe warmest depending on Feb. December kind of is an anchor with temps near normal, but Jan was an inferno. What I find amazing Lake Winni never iced in! No runway this year.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where was anyone bitching or emotional? Scooter is heading toward bridgewater corrections if we see a R/S line that’s white in Bos and skunks S shore NNE pack is on melt watch For mid February Going skiing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: This winter rules! UZI SCOTT The only thing that would make this snow map more perfect. would be snows wrapping around into NYC, up the Hudson River Valley, leaving a massive hole of nothing in all of New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, 512high said: What I find amazing Lake Winni never iced in! No runway this year.... It may be iced in by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It may be iced in by Sunday Valid point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Groundhog saw its shadow. 6 more weeks of spring continues! Right It sounds like Punxsutawney Phil has found his way to the edibles again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Right It sounds like Punxsutawney Phil has found his way to the edibles again. The question is "how can there be 6 more weeks of winter when there hasn't been a single week of winter??" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't have the numbers in front of me, but this will go down at least top 5 warm winter, maybe warmest depending on Feb. December kind of is an anchor with temps near normal, but Jan was an inferno. Interesting. Potentially warmest ever with no pig or substantial large scale pattern impetus, right? I mean nothing like 2011-2012. Bad luck or is this the new normal starting to rear its ugly head? I think the WC ridging being too far west screwed us over. Oh well, probably a little bad luck mixed with a changing climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Groundhog saw its shadow. 6 more weeks of spring continues November! FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Interesting. Potentially warmest ever with no pig or substantial large scale pattern impetus, right? I mean nothing like 2011-2012. Bad luck or is this the new normal starting to rear its ugly head? I think the WC ridging being too far west screwed us over. Oh well, probably a little bad luck mixed with a changing climate. It’s not bad luck. Deep Baja troughs and Nina probably a bad combo for cold . I don’t know a ton but if someone says bad luck caused 34 days in a row of above normal temps my impression is they aren’t the one to listen to . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I think the groundhog has it all wrong. If I woke up to a beautiful, sunny morning I'd be more inclined to cancel winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Interesting. Potentially warmest ever with no pig or substantial large scale pattern impetus, right? I mean nothing like 2011-2012. Bad luck or is this the new normal starting to rear its ugly head? I think the WC ridging being too far west screwed us over. Oh well, probably a little bad luck mixed with a changing climate. 1990-91 didnt have an AK pig...it's not as warm as this winter, but it's a top 10 warmest. Monster SE ridge kept us torched most of that winter. But yeah, this is somewhat unusual to have this type of warmth without an AK pig. 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s not bad luck. Deep Baja troughs and Nina probably a bad combo for cold There's always an element of "luck" (call it "unpredictable chaos" for those who get triggered by the luck term) when you have an extreme outcome. Like a small nuance in the flow could have turned December 2 degrees colder if you trap that PV under the block instead of having it end up in western Canada prior to Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1990-91 didnt have an AK pig...it's not as warm as this winter, but it's a top 10 warmest. Monster SE ridge kept us torched most of that winter. But yeah, this is somewhat unusual to have this type of warmth without an AK pig. There's always an element of "luck" (call it "unpredictable chaos" for those who get triggered by the luck term) when you have an extreme outcome. Like a small nuance in the flow could have turned December 2 degrees colder if you trap that PV under the block instead of having it end up in western Canada prior to Xmas. Ok but it would have still been a extremely warm winter , which was my main point . Luck can take it to top 2 from just a “ torch winter” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ok but it would have still been a extremely warm winter , which was my main point Yes. You aren't going to be cold with this composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Hello fellow snow lovers! 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I would say this is the portion of winter so far where we got "bad luck"....we prob would end up colder/snowier a huge percent of the time if we roll the dice on this longwave pattern 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ridging has already returned there in the longer term means. Really more a question if stability and within that stability is there an amplitude increase. Time will tell … 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Pretty decent difference between GEFS and EPS too for mid-month....GEFS really aren't that warm...they do have what looks like a potential warm spell around Feb 16-17 but it doesn't last long. EPS seems to have a more robust warm signal and it lasts longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would say this is the portion of winter so far where we got "bad luck"....we prob would end up colder/snowier a huge percent of the time if we roll the dice on this longwave pattern Do you mean where we’re going… Or where we’ve been - I don’t know how we survived that duck hunt cold pattern back in Dec without taking even one snow bullet … That was like some kinda Quantum superposition theory where we were winning it all while losing everything. It will be interesting to top that “bad luck” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do you mean where we’re going… Or where we’ve been - I don’t know how we survived that duck hunt cold pattern back in Dec without taking even one snow bullet … That was like some kinda Quantum superposition theory where we were winning it all while losing everything. It will be interesting to top that “bad luck” lol Where we've been....yeah, December was unfortunate, but I guess that's payback for pulling 12"+ storms out of our ass in marginal patterns for years prior. Though I'm ready to stop rolling snake eyes...seems we've done it lot in the past 3-4 seasons. I remember you mused about how we were due to get screwed a bunch after that 2015 season....we may have been delayed a bit on the timing, but really since 2017-2018 winter, it's been rough. OBviously a few exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 ...I'm going with Chuckles on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Where we've been....yeah, December was unfortunate, but I guess that's payback for pulling 12"+ storms out of our ass in marginal patterns for years prior. Though I'm ready to stop rolling snake eyes...seems we've done it lot in the past 3-4 seasons. I remember you mused about how we were due to get screwed a bunch after that 2015 season....we may have been delayed a bit on the timing, but really since 2017-2018 winter, it's been rough. OBviously a few exceptions. I just can't believe how fast the time has gone by... When we "joked" ( while looking sideways ...) about that, I remember thinking 3...maybe 4 seasons. Then ( and funny you brought this up..), I was just thinking about that "pay back climate" BS ( which is really is... but for the sake of discussion - LOL ) last week, with 2015 in mind... "Yeah...I guess we're still - wait a second!" That was 7 ... 8 f'n years ago. Here's the deal, ... that was three.5 weeks of that onslaught of intermittent deep cold (more on then off) with well timed snow events - snow events whose results ( I've always thought ) were inflated by high ratio circumstance. It kind of really was about cold in that period of time... You mix any precipitating machinery into that kind of cold and we'd probably fair at minimum, okay. But we put a couple of coastal into the fray of the 3.5 week trip and next thing we know... we have to pay for it for a decade!? ...That just doesn't seem like 'climate justice' Some crude philosophy on this.. Honestly not what I had in mind. Even in sarcasm, that seems a bit steep. But lets look at this objectively: How much snow did we get in each of the 7 winters since? How many of those were above normal vs how many were below normal. Of those that are above normal, what percent of average were the positive departures. Of those that were below... do the same arithmetic. Then, compare those - which has the greater value... So long as we're "pretending" there is any veracity to the "pay back" expectation, we can try to make some sense within itself. I just think that 2015 ( in retrospect ) ...might have happened on a climate island? ..so to speak. I think those "rogue wave" historic things have to be given allowance space, as things that are going to happen. You just accept that within all complex, noisy systems in nature, they will at times engender exceptional outliers that don't represent the "genetics" of the machinery. It's almost like you remove 1888, 1978, 2015 ...etc ( pick an exceptional outlier), the 1930s heat... 2005 hurricane season... and just calculate a climate that does not include those. This latter, softer longer termed mean would be our real expectation curve. Just be aware that we live in an environment where rogues can happen just like a vast sea of countless 20 ft swells rears a single 100 foot monster, once, ...maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I would say this is the portion of winter so far where we got "bad luck"....we prob would end up colder/snowier a huge percent of the time if we roll the dice on this longwave pattern And this was the point where q omega nailed the idea of the monster -nao hooking up with the se ridge. Not sure if he got a lucky shot in the dark but it’s made him right more than anyone else this winter. Jerry remembers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: And this was the point where q omega nailed the idea of the monster -nao hooking up with the se ridge. Not sure if he got a lucky shot in the dark but it’s made him right more than anyone else this winter. Jerry remembers -NAO didn't hook up with the SE ridge. The PV got stuck underneath the NAO block and got pinned in western Canada, which forced all of the energy west. He was right about it being warm in January, sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: -NAO didn't hook up with the SE ridge. The PV got stuck underneath the NAO block and got pinned in western Canada, which forced all of the energy west. He was right about it being warm, sure. there was literally no way that anyone could have foreseen that happening. just really shit luck. roll the dice with that pattern 10 times and we'd probably get crushed 7 there was also the potent follow up wave that moved onshore 12-24 hours too late and the ridge collapsed out west. an exercise in futility if we had cashed in on both, we'd be talking about this winter much differently 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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