February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

A 1043 arctic high to my north is great...but not 75 miles to my north.

That oughta shore up Washington D.C.'s greater snow season than Boston ...  In a + NAO - perfect

[Sn0waddict]

Over 5 inches of rain for the month of January. February has always been our month but the vibes so far this winter have been terrible.

[Typhoon Tip]

I have my doubts there's going to be any kind of "March" this year.

[Typhoon Tip]

I have my doubts this cold hemispheric look over the next 10 days is really going to last long enough to proxy February, too. 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Any early guess John how  February May end Regarding monthly temp anomaly’s. My guess would be after a colder than normal first 6-8 days we mild up enough to finish +3 or 4 for the month .  That SE ridge flex should have folks attention further up north as well in my opinion .

[qg_omega]

Looks like all the Mets have thrown in the towel, really nothing on the horizon to look forward to and a huge February torch looks on track

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think That period is the best all year for mid Atlantic to NYC , could come more north at this Lead time but there is legit hope for first time in a long time for upper mid Atlantic 

I don’t mind seeing it down there right now. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like all the Mets have thrown in the towel, really nothing on the horizon to look forward to and a huge February torch looks on track

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth all the time

you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with legit cold over the next 10 days. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth

you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with an arctic outbreak. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

Not sure when you joined the boards, but he has an extremely long track record (like a decade) of downplaying cold/snow and hyping warmth….think JB in reverse. So he will look good in torch periods even if it’s for the wrong reasons. 

[Typhoon Tip]

 - folks may want to set up their expectations accordingly and allow pleasant surprises, instead, once we get beyond ~ the 8th .. 10th of the month. 

Prior to that.. there is a signal still between the 2nd and 7th ( or so...), given the numerical telecon coverage and some other spatial/super-synoptic techniques when observing the ensemble means...et a. However, at the moment that signal is favoring more of a cold wave ( if we wanna even call it that) as the main output.  Now that the models and means finally stopped fighting one another over this pattern change, what is being portayed is that dreaded overbearing dominant N/stream thing.  So much so the ambient hemisphere is a velocity saturated, meat grinding shear machine.  Essentially, the large scale circulation metrics end up in a state of reduced(ing) constructive interference. 

There are events in there, but just as a quick and dirty cursory look, I compared the GFS operational events from 00z, 06z ...overnight, against prior runs, and almost could not find any continuity with space or timing, wrt to specific events... after that frontal passage on Sunday.  It's probably more to do with the said fast flow and higher compression - I cannot help but feel if want to track another event again this year, one that is actually worth tracking ... we don't want the N/stream carving out an elephant ass on a trampoline over eastern N/A.

So...events can still happen - not tossing the next 10 days or whatever it takes to waste this period ( lol  j/k).  But perhaps the guidance suites are just going too robust with the N/stream and that would be useful.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure when you joined the boards, but he has an extremely long track record (like a decade) of downplaying cold/snow and hyping warmth….think JB in reverse. So he will look good in torch periods even if it’s for the wrong reasons. 

That being Said , does February 10 onward look solidly above normal if you were a betting man or is the SE ridge flex hard to really anticipate at this lead 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 after that frontal passage on Sunday.  It's probably more to do with the said fast flow and higher compression - I cannot help for feel if want to track an event again this year, one that is actually worth tracking ... we don't want the N/stream carving out an elephant ass on a trampoline over eastern N/A.

So...events can still happen - not tossing the next 10 days or whatever it takes to waste this period ( lol  j/k).  But perhaps the guidance suites are just going too robust with the N/stream and that would be useful.

LOL…this was pretty good

[CoastalWx]

Maybe it’s good to see 2/1 where it is given the trends of late. 

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has to be the widest plot known to man. It's been heading for phase 8 since Thanksgiving and still hasn't made it. 

Yeah and now today it's delayed longer in phase 3.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That being Said , does February 10 onward look solidly above normal if you were a betting man or is the SE ridge flex hard to really anticipate at this lead 

Oh it’s def looks above normal to me beyond Feb 10th…but not in the same way January was. January (at least until the last week here) had an utter dearth of cold up north….we look to get mild because of SE ridge flexing but the EPO ridge remains intact, at least through mid-Feb…we’ll see about beyond that…which means we still have a cold loading pattern into Canada and N Plains…so even if we are above normal, there could easily be an event or two mixed in when you time your cold shots correctly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoa!!! Congratulations man! Well that certainly trumps even snow--yeah it's not worth it to have any attention divided to what's been going on. 

P.S. If it snows after your child is born we will certainly need to give it (boy or girl?) a username already 

Boy...

Thanks for all of the support, everyone. Hopefully I haven't ginxed anything by spiking the football too early.

As far as winter goes...if something presents itself as imminent, then great...but the days of me waiting with bated breath are gone...until next fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Congrats on the baby Ray, how about your wife has the baby safely in the morning and that night we get a big blizzard, a day for you to really remember.

The last thing I want....I am scared to death of having a big event that first week of February bc it would probably end in divorce.

[Cold Miser]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah I’m pretty much out for tracking anymore. We lost the battle  . You don’t gain winter back by a week or two Obviously I’ll post and have fun, but the thrill and excitement of chasing snow this year has been taken away . Too much  emotion spent on failures has taken its toll on me personally . Probably my fault for buying in . 

You should have checked out when I did, and became one with the weather you are dealt with.  There is time for redemption, (not so) young grasshopper. 

...Although such redemption may not be experienced until December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 - folks may want to set up their expectations accordingly and allow pleasant surprises, instead, once we get beyond ~ the 8th .. 10th of the month. 

Prior to that.. there is a signal still between the 2nd and 7th ( or so...), given the numerical telecon coverage and some other spatial/super-synoptic techniques when observing the ensemble means...et a. However, at the moment that signal is favoring more of a cold wave ( if we wanna even call it that) as the main output.  Now that the models and means finally stopped fighting one another over this pattern change, what is being portayed is that dreaded overbearing dominant N/stream thing.  So much so the ambient hemisphere is a velocity saturated, meat grinding shear machine.  Essentially, the large scale circulation metrics end up in a state of reduced(ing) constructive interference. 

There are events in there, but just as a quick and dirty cursory look, I compared the GFS operational events from 00z, 06z ...overnight, against prior runs, and almost could not find any continuity with space or timing, wrt to specific events... after that frontal passage on Sunday.  It's probably more to do with the said fast flow and higher compression - I cannot help but feel if want to track another event again this year, one that is actually worth tracking ... we don't want the N/stream carving out an elephant ass on a trampoline over eastern N/A.

So...events can still happen - not tossing the next 10 days or whatever it takes to waste this period ( lol  j/k).  But perhaps the guidance suites are just going too robust with the N/stream and that would be useful.

I think that is probably the most hopeful correction vector that we could have this season.....god knows we do not want to rely on west coast ridging.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The latest run of 0z euro , 0z cmc and 6z  gfs don’t really have much QPF Over the next 10 days (After accounting for last nites crap)  Looks like maybe a bit of a break from the active period Over next 10 days. 

Of course there is a bit of a break in the firehose of precip once the cold arrives.

The Facts of Life..ya take the good, ya take the bad

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m pretty much done at this point. Maybe I’ll look this morning. If something pops on the models great, but not worth getting invested. 

Agreed.

I'm out on this year as far as any investment.....doesn't mean I think that my idea of a big ending is entirely null and void, but rather any additional investment this year is going to require very high confidence. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth all the time

you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with legit cold over the next 10 days. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

He is the most tolerable of the trolls IMO.....he actually brings something to the table when he chooses to do so.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course there is a bit of a break in the firehose of precip once the cold arrives.

The Facts of Life..ya take the good, ya take the bad

I think it shows if you want the cold Via PV s.e of Hudson Bay  and you have the Baja troughs, suppression is on the table for someone now . Maybe it will be NNE maybe all the way down to NYC .  To me I paint this period as a bit less active but with any gradient Potential further south , so sorta thread the needle to get the latitude cold and stormy . Maybe I’m off base 

[SnoSki14]

With SE ridge still around and strong arctic high to the north, things could turn really snowy in early Feb. 

Northern Mid-Atlantic could actually be favored this time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think it shows if you want the cold Via PV s.e of Hudson Bay  and you have the Baja troughs, suppression is on the table for someone now . Maybe it will be NNE maybe all the way down to NYC .  To me I paint this period as a bit less active but with any gradient Potential further south , so sorta thread the needle to get the latitude cold and stormy . Maybe I’m off base 

I'm sick to death of trying to thread the fuckin& needles....like 3 months of it. I just want to throw the thread at someone and stick the fuck!ing needle in my eyeball so I don't have to watch anymore.

[Great Snow 1717]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have my doubts there's going to be any kind of "March" this year.

Agree

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree

Hopefully it will be warm, rather than cold and dry.

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Any early guess John how  February May end Regarding monthly temp anomaly’s. My guess would be after a colder than normal first 6-8 days we mild up enough to finish +3 or 4 for the month .  That SE ridge flex should have folks attention further up north as well in my opinion .

That spread behavior you described has been a sort of how the longer term results have played out.  So, trend awareness alone would naturally lend to that thinking... it's hard to knock persistence, particularly when it is persisting regardless of all super synoptic flavors.  It hasn't mattered what ENSO this, or AMO that, or PDOs  or Presidencies ...that's just what's happened. 

We know both existentially, and by the verified numbers ... cold tends to arrive more 'spiky' for briefer stays, returning to a more modest above normal base-state ( we're talking tendencies). That's kind of a crass quick and unpolished way to portray...  Still, being -4 or even -6 during 7 days of early February, some how some way ending up +2 on the month is a troll posting boon era.

However, there are reasons to go warmer, that are more physically connected to reality than the sniper fire that's sans substantive logic, by someone clearly without a sex partner or much of a life otherwise.

La Ninas have a correlation with warmer than normal springs - it may not be as differentiably identifiable last year and year before ... due to a separate phenomenon occurring that's masking it?  That's very complexly related to seasonal book-end blocking that's become more prevalent in autumns and springs over the last 10 years  - yuck. 

Other than the Xmas through mid January period, the hemisphere has been well coupled to the Nina.  I'm not sure how to reconcile the blocking stuff above, with the a La Nina that may or might not be well coupled as we head through February. 

But...lurking in the back of my mind is that I've seen it be between 75 and 80 F in February, 3 times over the last 7 or so years.   Though here have been some snow events in Marches over the last 10, these warm intrusions have begun taking place with more frequency. 

Some of these different trends are competing ...both within themselves due to so-so consistency, and against one another. 

Right now... CPC's analysist are indicating the MJO is constructively interfering with the La Nina, and that favors the warmer eastern N/A in "2 to 3 weeks" as they put it.  The numerical teleconnector projections ( I haven't seen last night's) have been consistently showing a shallow +PNA bounce between the 2nd and 7th... beyond which there is this settle back into a +AO/+NAO...neutral PNA that goes off the horizon of those progs. 

The trends/ n terms = warmer tint, then adding that... it doesn't want to end well. 

 

[Kitz Craver]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boy...

Thanks for all of the support, everyone. Hopefully I haven't ginxed anything by spiking the football too early.

As far as winter goes...if something presents itself as imminent, then great...but the days of me waiting with bated breath are gone...until next fall.

I’m a bit late to the party, congratulations Man! God’s greatest gift to us all is the gift of life! Happy for you and your wife.

[Great Snow 1717]

42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you know, you did well with January, but I have no idea why you have to be so hyperbolic about warmth all the time

you're allowed to say there is the potential for some snow along with legit cold over the next 10 days. you aren't going to keel over and die for doing it

Can you please post some of "your" images...