Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Well stated. Right - best laid plans ... LOL In this business, if 'laid' means how we take it after having implemented the most lucid rational, objective route? Sure. No, but ... yes, if I was forecasting February, I'd slope pretty significantly warmer and dryer than normal ..roughly the 10th - 20th...25th ( perhaps the rest of the way). But, I would put my probability at say, 70% ? I don't have a formal arithmetic in that number - it's more a super duper amazing sciency approach of how I 'feel' about this stuff at this time. However, I did elucidate some pretty damning reasoning ( above) so it's valid conceptually based upon that foundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right - best laid plans ... LOL In this business, if 'laid' means how we take it after having implemented the most lucid rational, objective route? Sure. No, but ... yes, if I was forecasting February, I'd slope pretty significantly warmer and dryer than normal ..roughly the 10th - 20th...25th ( perhaps the rest of the way). But, I would put my probability at say, 70% ? I don't have a formal arithmetic in that number - it's more a super duper amazing sciency approach of how I 'feel' about this stuff at this time. However, I did elucidate some pretty damning reasoning ( above) so it conceptually derived from that foundation. I am pretty happy with how my December thoughts played out, dearth of snowfall be damned...and think I am on the right track for Feb. Unfortunately, all I got right in January was the active storm track....problem is it was like +8 instead of normal. Of course.....the shit part works out. Great- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 This may only have symbolic value - not sure... - but something I've noticed in the past. When there is an advent of some extreme, ...if you are looking for it, you may notice either in aggregate or all at once, there is compensating event(s) that takes place within weeks, short weeks sometimes, that follow the dramatic departure advent. In a pure bean counter perspective that makes sense. The climate is not representative of the extreme. Something has to atone. ( otherwise ... you're climate is changing - haha) If we knife in a -3SD knuckle stinger, but it's back over 30 just 24 hours later, heading ( probably ) for a week of sustained 40s - cloud and cat paws permitting - the cold is atoned for by the following Thursday or something. It reminds me of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This may only have symbolic value - not sure... - but something I've noticed in the past. When there is an advent of some extreme, ...if you are looking for it, you may notice either in aggregate or all at once, there is compensating event(s) that takes place within weeks, short weeks sometimes, that follow the dramatic departure advent. In a pure bean counter perspective that makes sense. The climate is not representative of the extreme. Something has to atone. ( otherwise ... you're climate is changing - haha) If we knife in a -3SD knuckle stinger, but it's back over 30 just 24 hours later, heading ( probably ) for a week of sustained 40s - cloud and cat paws permitting - the cold is atoned for by the following Thursday or something. It reminds me of that. Man, we have really just rolled snake eyes this year....uber NAO block in December....that interacts with the PV in such a manner that all of the energy phases west. +PNA January....that is biased west and off of the coast, so that a semi-permanent trough remains anchored along the west coast. -AO January.....that teams with a +NAO to focus all of the cold in Siberia like Jan 2002. Now Feb begins with a historic arctic blast that squashes the storm track, until it lifts out in time to rain. "Just a bit ironic....don't ya think" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Have to ride when i can, I'll just put my big boy pants on late week, Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 25. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Breezy. Friday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 2. Blustery. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -26. Blustery. Saturday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -9. Breezy. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -20. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the tropics have dictated that you take the under on amplification when the MJO is in the wheelhouse phases for eastern weenies, and the over when in the milder phases. That is the gist of my next blog. I know SE ridging is always a risk in Ninas, but I didn’t think it would make it all the way up to us especially with the look we had in early December. It’s strange how despite the Nina being borderline moderate, it’s acting like a very strong one with no blocking (post December). Looking at the SSTs it looks like the Nina transitioned from east leaning basin wide to a more west based Nina. I know that isn’t good for us, but I’m curious about what the warning signs were that the Nina would shift west and influence our pattern in a way that resulted in a mild winter with below normal snow. I do agree with you that we got unlucky, but especially post December the longwave pattern has been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, George001 said: I know SE ridging is always a risk in Ninas, but I didn’t think it would make it all the way up to us especially with the look we had in early December. It’s strange how despite the Nina being borderline moderate, it’s acting like a very strong one with no blocking (post December). Looking at the SSTs it looks like the Nina transitioned from east leaning basin wide to a more west based Nina. I know that isn’t good for us, but I’m curious about what the warning signs were that the Nina would shift west and influence our pattern in a way that resulted in a mild winter with below normal snow. I do agree with you that we got unlucky in December but the pattern since then has been awful. Human kind's throught process is still far too linear for seasonal forecasting....too many generic relationships, indexes and correlations are over simplified, which leads us astray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Trying to develop a conceptualization that adequately captures the complexity of the global atmosphere remains a fool's errand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I mentioned this last week regarding the MJO. This year, the cold phases were phases 3-5. The warmer phases that torched us, especially regarding the PAC jet, were the typical cold phases. 8-2. Nor sure why, but pattern recognition was important to help identify cold shots. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am pretty happy with how my December thoughts played out, dearth of snowfall be damned...and think I am on the right track for Feb. Unfortunately, all I got right in January was the active storm track....problem is it was like +8 instead of normal. Of course.....the shit part works out. Great- Whereas, though I do not formally publish my season thoughts ... I do in snark sometimes proffer some obnoxious, borderline troll - but not specifically because I like to engage in that practice, just that by default, my position ( partially rooted in how I really feel) may oppose the consensus. In this case, I didn't see how this winter would be 'better' than last. I really didn't. Come hell or high water, I figured it for a forced affair with a larger clearly physically outclassing prison associate, when it comes to winter enthusiasm. People have their ways and means... but, I do admit to believing the folding/block tendency of the autumn and spring is a real aspect that is reproducible, and in between those, we have been also repeating fast flow that rips at the standard cyclone model ( in the means ) - all this as strongly motivating tendency, by all factors in mind, to recur. Ranging from those are conventional, to those that are in research. I don't bother to put this down on proverbial paper and post seasonal outlooks. I observe too much vitriol between those that advance these outlooks - it seems like doing so is allegorical to raising your hand at all on Vieques Island - a.k.a ('Lord of The Flies'). There's a petty kind of celebrity seeking competition in that space that's not really ever even going to have a very positive return - nothing anyone does in here or in social media, in the space of season forecasting is going to seat one next to a 'star' of Meteorology or in general. Ahgh... don't mind me. I'm leaning more and more into existential nihilism with age. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Whereas, though I do not formally publish my season thoughts ... I do in snark sometimes proffer some obnoxious, borderline troll - but not specifically because I like to engage in that practice, just that by default, my position ( partially rooted in how I really feel) may oppose the consensus. In this case, I didn't see how this winter would be 'better' than last. I really didn't. Come hell or high water, I figured it for a forced affair with a larger clearly physically outclassing prison when it comes to winter enthusiasm. People have their ways and means... but, I do admit to believing the folding/block tendency of the autumn and spring is a real aspect that is reproducible, and in between those, we have been also repeating fast flow that rips at the standard cyclone model ( in the means ) - all this as strongly motivating tendency by all factors in mind. Ranging from those are conventional, to those that are in research. I don't bother to put this down on proverbial paper and post seasonal outlooks. I observe too much vitriol between those that advance these outlooks - it seems like doing so is allegorical to raising your hand at all on Vieques Island - a.k.a ('Lord of The Flies'). There's a petty kind of celebrity seeking competition in that space that's not really ever even going to have a very positive return - nothing anyone does in here or in social media, in the space of season forecasting is going to seat one next to a 'star' of Meteorology or in general. Ahgh... don't mind me. I'm leaning more and more into existential nihilism with age. You should put something out next year...you have a ton to offer, John. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned this last week regarding the MJO. This year, the cold phases were phases 3-5. The warmer phases that torched us, especially regarding the PAC jet, were the typical cold phases. 8-2. Nor sure why, but pattern recognition was important to help identify cold shots. I'll admit this is something that I need to pay more attention to in season....when the winter goes the unsavory route, I tend to check out and not pay much attention, aside from brieg blog update cameos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned this last week regarding the MJO. This year, the cold phases were phases 3-5. The warmer phases that torched us, especially regarding the PAC jet, were the typical cold phases. 8-2. Nor sure why, but pattern recognition was important to help identify cold shots. I definitely agreed with you Scott, when you did - I recall you're statement. In fact, dig it up - don't be surprised if I pinged you back the appropriate emoji ... It's just that I guess it was like reading the recipe and thinking that sounds like the right kind of meal, but now one can really smell it cooking and it's very palatable - haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Might be a little snow tomorrow morning too…esp south of pike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Its these winter's that don't go as planned that are the most informative....the seasons like 2009-2010, when everyone and their dog knows to forecast cold and snow, don't do as much to advance seasonal forecasting....as orgasmic as they can be on the d-drip front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I definitely agreed with you Scott, when you did - I recall you're statement. In fact, dig it up - don't be surprised if I pinged you back the appropriate emoji ... It's just that I guess it was like reading the recipe and thinking that sounds like the right kind of meal, but now one can really smell it cooking and it's very palatable - haha Oh yeah...wasn't trying to beat my chest or anything, just something I noticed and I saw come up with some energy Mets. It's interesting for sure. But, I don't think it explains why we have been absolutely bent over from a temp and snow point of view this season. This is quite an enigma to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Pretty nice high building down into the system in la la land on the op gfs. Shows how it can be done atleast with cold lurking over the border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Pretty nice high building down into the system in la la land on the op gfs. Shows how it can be done atleast with cold lurking over the border I know ... As though in great homage to the 'best laid plans' conversation Ray and I were just having... the 11th comes back in the GFS. It's 270 so it's more for the comedy for now but this is tooth-aching sweet looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Have to ride when i can, I'll just put my big boy pants on late week, Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 25. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Breezy. Friday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 2. Blustery. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -26. Blustery. Saturday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -9. Breezy. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -20. Yikes! I hope it is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Anyone know how Garth feels about this winter so far? Lol dude has 2 dozen fuck this winter posts. Party on Garth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Anyone know how Garth feels about this winter so far? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 52 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Pretty nice high building down into the system in la la land on the op gfs. Shows how it can be done atleast with cold lurking over the border There’s been a lot of scooter highs in clown range the past few runs. It kind of fits the pattern though…I know it’s popular in here right now to forecast non-stop warmth for February but it’s really hard to get all-out furnaces when you still have some cross polar flow into Canada. Its the type of pattern that will be mild in the mean, but there could be bouts of colder intrusion. We’ll see though….maybe the cross polar flow shuts off and if it does, then it could torch more without interruption. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s been a lot of scooter highs in clown range the past few runs. It kind of fits the pattern though…I know it’s popular in here right now to forecast non-stop warmth for February but it’s really hard to get all-out furnaces when you still have some cross polar flow into Canada. Its the type of pattern that will be mild in the mean, but there could be bouts of colder intrusion. We’ll see though….maybe the cross polar flow shuts off and if it does, then it could torch more without interruption. Man UKMET kind of says fuck 50s and 60s, eat some 20s and 30s...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know ... As though in great homage to the 'best laid plans' conversation Ray and I were just having... the 11th comes back in the GFS. It's 270 so it's more for the comedy for now but this is tooth-aching sweet looking Does it help I will be turning 60 ( god that's a scary thought!) on the 11th? Ha Ha, maybe a birthday surprise! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned this last week regarding the MJO. This year, the cold phases were phases 3-5. The warmer phases that torched us, especially regarding the PAC jet, were the typical cold phases. 8-2. Nor sure why, but pattern recognition was important to help identify cold shots. I believe MJO is still showing up according to its phases but it’s with a background that is ++AN. It’s therefore muting the cold aspect, and making it harder to notice relative to climo. But it’s there. We saw signs of this for 1 week in mid December (phase 1/8), ~5 days in Jan (phase 8), which was topped off by the weird (978mb coastal) that backed into Maine. And now with the MJO in phase 4 we’re seeing it again, with 4 days BN, topped off by PV arctic blast. But this goes right back to ++AN. MJO is loud noise; not a signal of pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 12z gefs as a whole looked very meh for the winter crew, besides the hr 270 possibility. There is a least some consistency, most of the individual members have a system around that time period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Thoughts on February similar to last fall....mild, but maybe a window mid month? Canada should at least be colder... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/very-active-january-much-milder-than.html 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Pretty boring week upcoming other than the brief chilly period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Might be a little snow tomorrow morning too…esp south of pike. Is this still looking like a little snow possible similar to today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pretty boring week upcoming other than the brief chilly period. Yup , and I think this is the week will said (Couple weeks ago ) we need something to be put on the board By (thru the 7’th or so) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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