STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No Queens be Queenin No Jack's be Jackin Me, just sittin and tannin I’m looking forward to spring softball but hoping NNE can get some net gainers next few weeks 48 beautiful degrees in Bedford Mass another +12 f day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Models don't have any "climo" built in.......... I remember seeing euro ensemble snowfall projection maps posted by a person in the mid-atlantic forum last year. These were from wxbell. Scrolling through the time stamps, snowfall kept increasing even though no snowfall was forecast for my area (central NJ). I always thought it was because the model was considering climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Got that Christine in a car warmed by the sun vibe today. Gorgeous 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The one behind that. He might be referring to the Euro instead of GFS. Both look....promising? Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, wkd said: I remember seeing euro ensemble snowfall projection maps posted by a person in the mid-atlantic forum last year. These were from wxbell. Scrolling through the time stamps, snowfall kept increasing even though no snowfall was forecast for my area (central NJ). I always thought it was because the model was considering climo. How would you know if no snowfall was forecasted by the ensembles without looking at all 51 members? Ensemble snowfall is an average of those 51 members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Scooter is all-in for 2nd half of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Scooter is all-in for 2nd half of February 50/50 low!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: How would you know if no snowfall was forecasted by the ensembles without looking at all 51 members? Ensemble snowfall is an average of those 51 members. Good point. I'll need to check the map and see if it was really based on the ensembles. Maybe it was something put together inhouse by WeatherBell. It's a probability map of total snowfall if that makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Could kids have played little league this winter. I think in S SNE they could have kept leagues going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Nothing screams snowstorms and cold like this look later in Feb lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Hundreds of bulbs coming up all over the place lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing screams snowstorms and cold like this look later in Feb lol It’s a good look..... for geese and by end of February as snow climo fades ..NNE won’t work in a torch Like it did during mid January . Hope it’s fleeting torch up there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Could kids have played little league this winter. I think in S SNE they could have kept leagues going I was at Andover High School yesterday for a basketball game. On the baseball field there was a mom and her 2 young children (6-9 years old?)....the kids were getting swings in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s a good look..... for geese and by end of February as snow climo fades ..NNE won’t work in a torch Like it did during mid January . Hope it’s fleeting torch up there same old same old, with possibilities the further north you go. big EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: same old same old, with possibilities the further north you go. big EPO You guys had a very good 2 week period that was workable because you were at peak climo , You will definitely get more snow but my money is that was your peak pack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You guys had a very good 2 week period that was workable because you were at peak climo , You will definitely get more snow but my money is that was your peak pack IF they get another decent period before mid-March, there's a decent chance they surpass the peak pack. They aren't going to melt a lot unless we either get 55F cutter or another 80F February torch....the former is precarious in CAD-land up there and the latter is unlikely unless we build this SE ridge into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: IF they get another decent period before mid-March, there's a decent chance they surpass the peak pack. They aren't going to melt a lot unless we either get 55F cutter or another 80F February torch....the former is precarious in CAD-land up there and the latter is unlikely unless we build this SE ridge into Canada. Yes, and I do think we haven't experienced our deepest pack yet. I understand the pessimism from many; it is well-deserved, but that isn't an awful pattern for up here, though it pretty much ends winter in the Mid Atlantic although they could always get a late storm or two that melts fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing screams snowstorms and cold like this look later in Feb lol That looks like someone rip-n'-read the (MJO + La Nina climo)/ 2 = another 2017 80F February anomaly. Unfortunately...the idea has merit. But, like Will's product then demos, there are conflicting signals - not to mention that product rendition above. Which I don't really have much faith in the weeklies out ECM but that's another story. I personally don't know but would still warn people ...the look above has precedence spanning the last 10 years of Februaries - or hybrid versions of that. I've mentioned this in the past... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hundreds of bulbs coming up all over the place lol mine are covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing screams snowstorms and cold like this look later in Feb lol Somehow I don't see that transitioning to what Will showed the following week in the Ensemble mean. I think the models have been spitting out a lot of conflicting garbage lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the return rate on nearly wire-to-wire winter seasons is just about non-existent, at least at this latitude. Other than at Fort Kent, where we had 3 wire-to-wires in 9 full winters, I can recall only 2, lifetime - 1960-61 in NNJ and 2007-08 here in the foothills. (1947-48 probably qualifies but I was too young to understand.) 1975-76 only misses because March had snow 1" BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I don't think any operational run can be trusted ...even to standard error, for anything beyond the cold incursion scenario. I find it difficult to believe - for example - the GFS will succeed in having 0 order pattern markers - meaning no pattern period, on earth? It's selling high velocity chaos, which is almost impossible of the geometric sphere to do that without organization of some form or the other emerging. P.o.s. time with guidance and the others are not much better with wild continuity changes in their own rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Some nice light Currier and Ives the past few hours dusting things up and roads snowy. 1.0-3.0sm vis -SN but huge fluffy flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Mesos have some light snow tomorrow morning and again Wednesday morning. maybe we get an inch out of that. Then possibly some OES on the outer cape Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 47 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Somehow I don't see that transitioning to what Will showed the following week in the Ensemble mean. I think the models have been spitting out a lot of conflicting garbage lately. exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: exactly He’s saying your deepest pack has already (and maybe most of your snowfall) has already occurred based on modeling 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Hoping for a final ode to the 80s in the next few weeks with a Feb 87 redux mixed in. The board would sure be entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Hoping for a final ode to the 80s in the next few weeks with a Feb 87 redux mixed in. The board would sure be entertaining 2/9-10/87 was a whopper on the cape. Some spots had over 30 inches of mostly grease…temps near freezing for most of the storm but it flash-froze near the end with temps dropping into teens. I think Scooter’s hood had around 6” but once you got west of 128 it was mostly 1-3”…yeah the forum would be in epic melt mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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