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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

92-93 was awesome here 

Yeah BOS got 83 inches-a lot of good luck in February before and epic March.  December was snowy but January did feature an epic torch.  I did see someone skating on the Charles adjacent to back bay the last week of March.  At least that person had the good sense to stay close to the shore.

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Yeah I’m pretty much out for tracking anymore. We lost the battle  . You don’t gain winter back by a week or two Obviously I’ll post and have fun, but the thrill and excitement of chasing snow this year has been taken away . Too much  emotion spent on failures has taken its toll on me personally . Probably my fault for buying in . 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

People have been pressing for a good pattern.  It’s looked very good for cutters for a long time . We got some decent breaks in the last couple storms (before this piece of trash ) and I’ve been thankful for that . Just incredibly active and Mild with some N SNE folks being able to cash a little during peak climo . More cutters seem likely to me for SNE but I’m hoping it’s not back to rains to Maine and 850 lows thru Montreal after this garbage system 

There are a lot of seasoned vets really reaching at this point too, which I’m kind of surprised at. But it also shows just how shitty it’s been.

 

To be honest, a lot of these OP runs look exactly like they have all winter. Basically, what degree of cutter are we getting.


We literally can’t sneak a bonafide SNE threat in on the models anytime closer than 10 days out.

People are reaching for miracles at this point 

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There are a lot of seasoned vets really reaching at this point too, which I’m kind of surprised at. But it also shows just how shitty it’s been.

 

To be honest, a lot of these OP runs look exactly like they have all winter. Basically, what degree of cutter are we getting.


We literally can’t sneak a bonafide SNE threat in on the models anytime closer than 10 days out.

People are reaching for miracles at this point 

I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto a arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto an arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation.

 Exactly, the goal posts are shifting. The only winter weather most have seen is on day 10 ensemble maps, and that doesn’t look to change anytime soon.

 

Maybe we run into one at some point, but I think people need to be very careful taking the cheese on any good looking threats until we are very very close in.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto a arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation.

he's been wrong all winter.   that arctic shot into Texas is transient too-in and out and then back to the same ol pattern....

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Tough winter so far for the long-range "pattern" sniffers. The 7-10 day period feels like either a Maine or Carolinas jackpot situation. It's hard to see how we thread the needle based on where things stand now. The cold-side snow zones look narrow. Roll the dice and see how it plays out.

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I've given up. Tried to stay positive as much as possible. But seems everyone has jumped ship on this Winter. It's all good... Next year is another year ladies and gentleman. Pattern has never made the change no matter how many times it showed it. I was holding on hoping that it would. But I've got enough people coming down on me to now make it clear that it's just not happening. Until next year

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2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I've given up. Tried to stay positive as much as possible. But seems everyone has jumped ship on this Winter. It's all good... Next year is another year ladies and gentleman. Pattern has never made the change no matter how many times it showed it. I was holding on hoping that it would. But I've got enough people coming down on me to now make it clear that it's just not happening. Until next year

Take a break. 

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, at this point....I'd sign for that to ensure no more day 11 candy canes and 1/2" front fenders followed by 32.7 and rain.

You’re in full on Rat mode now?  No decent period first couple weeks of Feb, no late Feb and March cold?  The Outlook a total bust?  

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Take a break. 

 

You’re in full on Rat mode now?  No decent period first couple weeks of Feb, no late Feb and March cold?  The Outlook a total bust?  

I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it takes some luck to nail it, but the more skilled forecasters will get "lucky" more often.

I'm skeptical. Show me data to back that up and I'd change my mind. Otherwise to me it's like stock trading. Most people think they are better than random chance. But it's perception over reality. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested.

Congratulations on the baby Ray!  
 

Yup, I agree. I’ve made peace with it too. If something pops, we take. If not it’s ok too. 

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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm skeptical. Show me data to back that up and I'd change my mind. Otherwise to me it's like stock trading. Most people think they are better than random chance. But it's perception over reality. 

As someone who spends alot of time on it, I just feel like the people who don't expend any energy attempting it don't really have the right to entirely attribute anyone's success to luck. That is a loser's mindset IMO. There are many things that were thought to be impossible 100 years ago and still would be with that mindset.

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We’re actually driving to Florida just past mid February.  Stopping in Pittsburgh to visit a dear friend and then heading south with some fun stops on the way.  Checking out spring training and visiting my wife’s mom who’s wintering there.   We’ll return whenever….

Hopefully we get something in the next few weeks but I’m not holding my breath.

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43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nahhh..you’ll be good.
 

Heading up north of caribou Friday. they’re gonna get a dumping tomorrow. 

Put my first miles on tonight. Decided I was going to break my access trail out to the main trail and when I got there, the groomer had been through so I just kept going. Only did 5 or 6 miles but it was good to be out. 

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