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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, Chris12WX said:

 

T-Blizz is right. I got both my BS & MS from UML. I got a 6 month old so my red tag has been a low priority.

At UML I did a quick research project on which storm type, A or B, gives Lowell the most snow. I went through the NESIS scores and determined top 5 obvious A & B storms. I don’t remember exact numbers, but I think it’s B by a couple inches on average. 

Pawtucketville Social Club does better in Miller Lites

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Boxing say was an A, 1/27/11 was a B. 

1/27/11 was actually an A. Hit DC pretty good with thundersnow I remember. But it developed relatively slowly down south so it wasn’t maxing out down near DC. More like northern Mid-Atlantic into SE SNE. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/27/11 was actually an A. Hit DC pretty good with thundersnow I remember. But it developed relatively slowly down south so it wasn’t maxing out down near DC. More like northern Mid-Atlantic into SE SNE. 

Oh ok. Thanks.  Thought I remember it transferring some…? But maybe it was the slow development I was remembering? 

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I still can’t get used to seeing thicknesses of 528 over SF down to about Santa Barbara late this week . This looks like the coldest thickness of the season so far for that area , snow levels look exceptionally low in central and S cal. Thankfully we are getting good help from polar vortex and wave lengths have shortened 

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7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I still can’t get used to seeing thicknesses of 528 over SF down to about Santa Barbara late this week . This looks like the coldest thickness of the season so far for that area , snow levels look exceptionally low in central and S cal. Thankfully we are getting good help from polar vortex and wave lengths have shortened 

Better lengthen your wavelength if you like them west coast girls real thick and juicy…

 

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12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/27/11 was actually an A. Hit DC pretty good with thundersnow I remember. But it developed relatively slowly down south so it wasn’t maxing out down near DC. More like northern Mid-Atlantic into SE SNE. 

Those 2 A's were actually nicer than usual up here, totaling 15.3", garden-variety WSW events.  Of course, sites to south and east within 40 miles had 25-30 with verified blizzard criteria in both events.  More common for A's are whiffs or fringes - the Jan 1996 KU brought 4" at our (then) home in Gardiner, while PWM had 10.2" and there was less than 1" at the New Sharon co-op.  (But we usually clean up on B's.)

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On 2/22/2023 at 11:00 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I still can’t get used to seeing thicknesses of 528 over SF down to about Santa Barbara late this week . This looks like the coldest thickness of the season so far for that area , snow levels look exceptionally low in central and S cal. Thankfully we are getting good help from polar vortex and wave lengths have shortened 

Heh... The wave lengths - in the sense of Rosby loading/logistics around the hemisphere - have not shortened really...

What's going on is more related to nuanced aspects in this particular pattern evolution/present era.  I get why that idea is offered here, and it's not a bad one ha.  It's just about 3 weeks too early, and is also a gradual thing - just sayn'  I see winds absolutely roaring at mid levels around a -PNA nadir out west, up and over a S-SE isohypses wall, compressed S by a N/stream that is out of phase and more cold-like over the Canadien shield.   We do not have shortened wave lengths out through D10 in these runs...

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nobody is real out paying attention because of 2/28, but there could be an inch or two of fluff for some on Saturday afternoon. That has been slowly trending just a bit juicier. It will be a very cold snow too. 

That 'not paying attention' phenomenon is also in play wrt to Mar 2, imho.  There's something perhaps bigger than a mere 'critter' in there...

In fact, the 00z Euro puts almost as much emphasis on that as the 28th system.  The 00z GFS, does not to put it nicely.  While the GGEM made a big move/nod toward that Euro idea, with a high end Advisory short duration S+.  Bottom line, it should be monitored.

I warned of this yesterday, to be blunt.  Not trying to promote self here, but as I said yesterday - and I am sure 'no one is/was paying attention' hahaha - I have seen this countless times over the decades of modeling life ...where the runs have everyone negotiating their eggs over a storm in a series, probably because at one time it was a big hog out there... But, some middle one ends up being the most important like a 6th seed winning the Stanley Cup.

Not saying that is this time, but the phenomenon is applicable to this particular pattern type we are in... fast/progressive higher error/lower performance circumstance. 

In fact, it probably is applicable to all these damn things.  Hell, maybe we could get all three. Yeah, let's do that! 

Also, the 06z GEFs was interesting for the 4th.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That 'not paying attention' phenomenon is also in play wrt to Mar 2, imho.  There's something perhaps bigger than a mere 'critter' in there...

In fact, the 00z Euro puts almost as much emphasis on that as the 28th system.  The 00z GFS, does not to put it nicely.  While the GGEM made a big move/nod toward that Euro idea, with a high end Advisory short duration S+.  Bottom line, it should be monitored.

I warned of this yesterday, to be blunt.  Not trying to promote self here, but as I said yesterday - and I am sure 'no one is/was paying attention' hahaha - I have seen this countless times over the decades of modeling life ...where the runs have everyone negotiating their eggs over a storm in a series, probably because at one time it was a big hog out there... But, some middle one ends up being the most important like a 6th seed winning the Stanley Cup.

Not saying that is this time, but the phenomenon is applicable to this particular pattern type we are in... fast/progressive higher error/lower performance circumstance. 

In fact, it probably is applicable to all these damn thing.  Hell, maybe we could get all three. Yeah, let's do that! 

Also, the 06z GEFs was interesting for the 4th.

Yeah agreed John.....3/2 is actually showing up pretty strongly in the EPS....some of them try to cut, but many of them are of the snowier variety ala 00z OP Euro.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah agreed John.....3/2 is actually showing up pretty strongly in the EPS....some of them try to cut, but many of them are of the snowier variety ala 00z OP Euro.

It would also continue the precipitation Thursday train we have been on for  2 months... most of which have been rain

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