Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 What is this? Stay away for 2 days and weenies gone wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 What a weenie GFS run for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I’m legit afraid for whenever someone makes a thread for this storm. Seems to be when it starts trending worse. Maybe just don’t make a thread? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 What a weenie run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: I’m legit afraid for whenever someone makes a thread for this storm. Seems to be when it starts trending worse. Maybe just don’t make a thread? Lol Yup, go directly to an obs thread when it's underway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a weenie run. All that and I am only out to day 10....what could go wrong!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Spanks45 said: All that and I am only out to day 10....what could go wrong!?!? Oh the meltdown factor is at DEFCON 5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What is this? Stay away for 2 days and weenies gone wild... Bro it gonna snow bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 futility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup, go directly to an obs thread when it's underway. I mean I know we are joking but… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh the meltdown factor is at DEFCON 5. Yup....just a bit more west coast troughiness, a little less push from the NE with a bit of SER and we will be measuring rain in inches. Hope the models have the right idea for the first time this year at this lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said: I’m legit afraid for whenever someone makes a thread for this storm. Seems to be when it starts trending worse. Maybe just don’t make a thread? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GEFS has much more confluence than 12z and a more amped S/W. the GEFS usually follows the GFS at this range, but i’ll take it. it’s a good shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It was fun while it lasted. RIP. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I’ll take my 18-20” on that, and be very very happy. Not greedy. Especially in this Rat winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 holy shit GEFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: holy shit GEFS I like that …Alot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 this is easily the best threat for CNE/SNE towards NYC that we've had all winter. not close hopefully we can hold until it's within 4-5 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this is easily the best threat for CNE/SNE towards NYC that we've had all winter. not close hopefully we can hold until it's within 4-5 days Sure is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Thing is, we haven't seen this depiction all winter...it's been like 100 miles north of this with the best over Canada border region usually. So even if this is too far south, it's going to bode well for a large part of NNE/CNE. I agree. Just not sure for most of the snow starved sne group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is easily the best threat for CNE/SNE towards NYC that we've had all winter. not close hopefully we can hold until it's within 4-5 days I mean, it’s 5 days out on the 00z runs tonight (at least the onset). I don’t see how we don’t get this inside of 5 days. The main shortwave responsible for this is already onshore (at least partially) over the Pacific Northwest so we don’t have any major data assimilation issues for that part of it. I really think the two main factors are going to be the block (which has been slowly ticking stronger) and that second shortwave that tries to phase on the euro (doesn’t quite get there on GFS). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I mean, it’s 5 days out on the 00z runs tonight (at least the onset). I don’t see how we don’t get this inside of 5 days. The main shortwave responsible for this is already onshore (at least partially) over the Pacific Northwest so we don’t have any major data assimilation issues for that part of it. I really think the two main factors are going to be the block (which has been slowly ticking stronger) and that second shortwave that tries to phase on the euro (doesn’t quite get there on GFS). yeah, it hinges on the block, IMO. if that trends weaker, the positive shifts today completely reverse as it'll speed up the flow and lead to a less amped and warmer solution. if it trends stronger, the system slows and ticks S, putting a SNE-HV-NYC bomb on the table in terms of the second piece, I think we want to see that half-assed Plains ridging tick up in strength. if it does, there's a greater chance that the second piece dives in, phases, and bring the potential through the roof. the ECMWF seemed increase the strength of it at 12z also, the off-hour EPS runs are in range, which is huge. those are a real blessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, TalcottWx said: That is a miller b as noted in kocin-uccelini books. Some of our most historic storms come from that look believe it or not. 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think he’s a met under a different username. T-Blizz is right. I got both my BS & MS from UML. I got a 6 month old so my red tag has been a low priority. At UML I did a quick research project on which storm type, A or B, gives Lowell the most snow. I went through the NESIS scores and determined top 5 obvious A & B storms. I don’t remember exact numbers, but I think it’s B by a couple inches on average. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it hinges on the block, IMO. if that trends weaker, the positive shifts today completely reverse as it'll speed up the flow and lead to a less amped and warmer solution. if it trends stronger, the system slows and ticks S, putting a SNE-HV-NYC bomb on the table in terms of the second piece, I think we want to see that half-assed Plains ridging tick up in strength. if it does, there's a greater chance that the second piece dives in, phases, and bring the potential through the roof. the ECMWF seemed increase the strength of it at 12z also, the off-hour EPS runs are in range, which is huge. those are a real blessing George started a thread calling for a top 10 Boston blizzard so we’ll need you there to confirm his wishes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: T-Blizz is right. I got both my BS & MS from UML. I got a 6 month old so my red tag has been a low priority. At UML I did a quick research project on which storm type, A or B, gives Lowell the most snow. I went through the NESIS scores and determined top 5 obvious A & B storms. I don’t remember exact numbers, but I think it’s B by a couple inches on average. Yea. B’s are definitely better for EMA from a pure observational standpoint. I’ve been skunked by too many B’s in WCT and CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Chris12WX said: Am I the only one who thinks the Euro's evolution is a bit....odd? Like the primary tracks to Montreal and the secondary moves southeast away from us and somehow we pull like 2.5" of QPF? The GFS probably runs the primary and secondary too far into the block. The Euro is overdoing it. Leaving the GGEM as reasonable? 18z GFS more in line with a surface evolution for a big dog compared to Euro in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. B’s are definitely better for EMA from a pure observational standpoint. I’ve been skunked by too many B’s in WCT and CNJ. Your area is still pretty good in Bs though the skunk factor defin it let goes up in them there. But storms like Jan 2011 and Feb 2013 are great examples of crushing Bs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 We B. Once in awhile you get a good juiced up A, but more often than not it’s an occluded mess when they get here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Boxing Day was a B right? Jan 27 2011 was an A? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, dmillz25 said: Boxing Day was a B right? Jan 27 2011 was an A? nah BDB was definitely an A. came right up from the GoM. luckily it occluded right over us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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