HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. Similar to 1996/1997. Ratter winter that ended with a three footer. It would be like failing all assignments then acing the final. Still an F. Different tale here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Everyone's grading system is their own. But I'd forgive a lot of sins if we got a 30"+ snowstorm....even in a winter like this. I wouldn't give it a good grade, but I'd prob elevate it to like a C or C-. winter 2006 NYC! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Any reason why the GFS solution is being discounted. Seems equally likely to verify because it's the least skillful and it has a noticeable progressive bias with coastals I don't think anyone is discounting it, it's just that the EPS is holding strong, we're getting to 5 days, and other models are moving towards it. the GFS can be put on the backburner in those situations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. I would rather 1 3'er, than 9 4"ers, but maybe I'm in the minority... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 And while nickel and diming a season feels all nice, to be meticulously tickled often but easily forgotten…I live for the memorable big pounding instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Any reason why the GFS solution is being discounted. Seems equally likely to verify Not discounted...rather hedged against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Man I’m not buying into anything based off how this winter has gone, BUUUUUT gotta admit it’s a bit exciting reading everyone’s discussions and seeing some pretty looking graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Any reason why the GFS solution is being discounted. Seems equally likely to verify What is the empirical basis of this statement as it pertains to our current guidance? It's a pretty clear outlier amongst all guidance that goes out far enough to see this system. Ukie/GGEM/Euro/Icon (if we want to include) are all pretty much on the same page synoptically....Euro juices it to another level, but the track is similar on all of them while the GFS is significantly further north and late with the redevelopment. I wouldn't completely discount the GFS, but I'd place it significantly less likely to verify than the other suite of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would rather 1 3'er, than 9 4"ers, but maybe I'm in the minority... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: winter 2006 NYC! or 2016..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: winter 2006 NYC! And 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And while nickel and diming a season feels all nice, to be meticulously tickled often but easily forgotten…I live for the memorable big pounding instead. Yup, since I take photos of almost all of the snowfalls, big and small. Most of them all look the same, except for when my children are pictured waste deep...then I remember all the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would rather 1 3'er, than 9 4"ers, but maybe I'm in the minority... Need some meat too, 20”-30” of cement hits different than a fluffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: or 2016..... not to get off topic, but I actually rank 2016 as a good to great winter. can't be a bad winter when you have a record-breaking blizzard IMO. just doesn't make sense to me but also, we don't really have snowpack or anything like that in NYC, so it's more of a bonus than anything... the lack of other snow doesn't bother me there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Any season with a 24-30” storm is an automatic A for me. Just is. Maybe not SEMA where they fart out 2 footers but for me, a top echelon snowfall overrides any seasonal deficiencies. I'm with you. I would forgive a lot if we got a biggie. I live for those as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Yup, since I take photos of almost all of the snowfalls, big and small. Most of them all look the same, except for when my children are pictured waste deep...then I remember all the details Yea true. This looks like another EMA special but we should be able to get it on the fun, giving the trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Spanks45 said: Yup, since I take photos of almost all of the snowfalls, big and small. Most of them all look the same, except for when my children are pictured waste deep...then I remember all the details Nickels and dimes are great around the holidays....gives it that great holiday vibe....but still, I am not sure I'd ever trade in a true monster storm for them. But since we've already had a dumpster fire season during the heart of cold/pack climo, there's no way I'd even think about preferring a bunch of nickel and dimes in late Feb and early Mar over a 30-burger. Late season is also big dog season....seasons in seasons as Kevin would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea true. This looks like another EMA special but we should be able to get it on the fun, giving the trajectory. If it tucks in a bit like some members show, it would favor you guys. Too early to say...hell the euro might not even happen like that. You guys are due though. It will happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Nickels and dimes are great around the holidays....gives it that great holiday vibe....but still, I am not sure I'd ever trade in a true monster storm for them. But since we've already had a dumpster fire season during the heart of cold/pack climo, there's no way I'd even think about preferring a bunch of nickel and dimes in late Feb and early Mar over a 30-burger. Late season is also big dog season....seasons in seasons as Kevin would say. Yea early season I’m all for it but once we are this deep and especially the brutality of how we got here, it’s all in or spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The big ones always have a consistent signal days and days in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I just want this piece of shit storm for (SNH) done with. At least multiple threats, one after another is great this far out, but snake bitten, but shit I'm in great mood in the forum today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Any season with a 24-30” storm is an automatic A for me. Just is. Maybe not SEMA where they fart out 2 footers but for me, a top echelon snowfall overrides any seasonal deficiencies. Wow. That’s some impressive weighting. I definitely weight big storms over consistent pack, but even a Feb ‘13 repeat could only get me to a C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: If it tucks in a bit like some members show, it would favor you guys. Too early to say...hell the euro might not even happen like that. You guys are due though. It will happen eventually. Not worried about regional snow-fare. Just get the board out of the psyche ward and into a deep snowy landscape at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, Hoth said: If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. Amy single storm 3 footer to me raises the grade to passing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Wow. That’s some impressive weighting. I definitely weight big storms over consistent pack, but even a Feb ‘13 repeat could only get me to a C. They don’t come around often for me so the weight is really heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not to get off topic, but I actually rank 2016 as a good to great winter. can't be a bad winter when you have a record-breaking blizzard IMO. just doesn't make sense to me but also, we don't really have snowpack or anything like that in NYC, so it's more of a bonus than anything... the lack of other snow doesn't bother me there I remember I was doing a radio show on here (back when we had them) for that storm and I was looking at the 00z runs about 3 days before the storm and saying on the show "I think NYC might get annihilated....I know they are on the edge right now, but this monster deep ULL is almost in a perfect spot for them and the confluence to the north is going to great an insane band near the northern part right near where NYC is"....models eventually caught on to the idea, but I was jealous of that one there. It looked perfect on model guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, 512high said: I just want this piece of shit storm for (SNH) done with. At least multiple threats, one after another is great this far out, but snake bitten, but shit I'm in great mood in the forum today. This is also a good time to tell all those waiting in the bushes, should things go wrong, that we aren’t locking anything yet. Excited at the potential inside d6, hell yea….so we chuck em for now. As Tip says, the d drip. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This is also a good time to tell all those waiting in the bushes, should things go wrong, that we aren’t locking anything yet. Excited at the potential inside d6, hell yea….so we chuck em for now. As Tip says, the d drip. Yeah if we’re getting buried on tomorrow’s 12z and especially 00z runs tomorrow night, then it might be time to start chucking them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Am I the only one who thinks the Euro's evolution is a bit....odd? Like the primary tracks to Montreal and the secondary moves southeast away from us and somehow we pull like 2.5" of QPF? The GFS probably runs the primary and secondary too far into the block. The Euro is overdoing it. Leaving the GGEM as reasonable? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Am I the only one who thinks the Euro's evolution is a bit....odd? Like the primary tracks to Montreal and the secondary moves southeast away from us and somehow we pull like 2.5" of QPF? The GFS probably runs the primary and secondary too far into the block. The Euro is overdoing it. Leaving the GGEM as reasonable? That is a miller b as noted in kocin-uccelini books. Some of our most historic storms come from that look believe it or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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