40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the euro op happened, I'll change Baby Spinazola's diapers for a week. Ha....oh believe me....DEAL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Right...agreed. Once it reaches a certain point, it has nowhere to go except to track into the favorable zone. The block is creating more margin for error than a typical "unmanned firehose" type setup where tiny perturbations create large final outcomes....but with that block and the pacific flow upstream forcing this system to hum along to the east into that block, it's really game set match once it hits the Ohio Valley around 120 hours. That isn't clown range. I think it happens....or like 2/3s of it, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That isn't clown range. I think it happens....or like 2/3s of it, anyway. Yeah, I'd caution everyone not to get married yet to the Euro enhancement from that second shortwave.....that's what turns a 6-10" storm into a HECS/KU type solution, but that first aspect of the storm is becoming a lot more likely. We'll see if we can get the nitro-boosted prototype that the Euro/EPS are selling as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, I'd caution everyone not to get married yet to the Euro enhancement from that second shortwave.....that's what turns a 6-10" storm into a HECS/KU type solution, but that first aspect of the storm is becoming a lot more likely. We'll see if we can get the nitro-boosted prototype that the Euro/EPS are selling as we get closer. I think a warning event is a good expectation, but I'm leaning closer to the ceiling than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snow mean for Boston on the eps going to end up close to 2 feet for the run. Dam impressive For someone that's been negative all winter I'm shocked you think that's gonna verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think a warning event is a good expectation, but I'm leaning closer to the ceiling than that. There's no doubt the block raises the ceiling....it creates an opportunity for a slower system that wouldn't be possible without the block (never mind the track would also be a cutter without the block). But I'd like to see ore continuity on that round 2 insert. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, I'd caution everyone not to get married yet to the Euro enhancement from that second shortwave.....that's what turns a 6-10" storm into a HECS/KU type solution, but that first aspect of the storm is becoming a lot more likely. We'll see if we can get the nitro-boosted prototype that the Euro/EPS are selling as we get closer. No one is getting married yet, but many will definitely be practicing for wedding night after 00z runs if this holds then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There's no doubt the block raises the ceiling....it creates an opportunity for a slower system that wouldn't be possible without the block (never mind the track would also be a cutter without the block). But I'd like to see ore continuity on that round 2 insert. Agree. Very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I would never forecast over a foot unless within 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Realistically what’s the ceiling for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, George001 said: Realistically what’s the ceiling for this? 24-30"...isolated 3'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: Realistically what’s the ceiling for this? Blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 24-30"...isolated 3'. Holy shit…… even half of that would be a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: For someone that's been negative all winter I'm shocked you think that's gonna verify. Has my negativity been wrong? I have .4 of snow so far this winter! This pattern can work for Boston but not us. The tpv is going to the other side of the globe and the -pna is here to stay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Leave amts out of it entirely... adjectives like minor, moderate and major are plenty at this range 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Blizzard. Severe blizzard 2-4 ft an everyday George storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Mic drop.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Has my negativity been wrong? I have .4 of snow so far this winter! This pattern can work for Boston but not us. The tpv is going to the other side of the globe and the -pna is here to stay this type of setup can impact NYC to Boston. I would feel worse if I was in Philly, but many Miller Bs do heavily impact that axis. would be a bit silly to count the NYC metro out at this range I feel like this is the straw that breaks the back of persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Mic drop.... Pretty awesome continuity for an OP run that far out. Though as Tip and I were just discussing...it's almost an inevitable outcome once it reaches the Ohio Valley 36-48 hours earlier. So you'd expect to see good continuity when some of these larger scale features are not moving much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Pretty awesome continuity for an OP run that far out. Though as Tip and I were just discussing...it's almost an inevitable outcome once it reaches the Ohio Valley 36-48 hours earlier. So you'd expect to see good continuity when some of these larger scale features are not moving much. it's an advantage at index scaling, ...word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Mic drop.... Gets me all tingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 54 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray and Scooter almost came to blows around a week ago at suggesting 1956. Nah...he just said he liked 2018 better and expected a tamer outcome. Nothing unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When did I melt? I said this is what we don't want. But yeah, the call has been placed...but the signal not given for the hit on George quite yet. I kid obv but you were a little irritated Sat morning from the overnight eps run…which spawned the usual suspects to pour their WTTE persistent jargon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nah...he just said he liked 2018 better and expected a tamer outcome. Nothing unreasonable. I know. Just bustin. I am really more interested in seeing how your extremely long range forecast works out than the details of any particular analog year. I would take eithrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I know. Just bustin. I am really more interested in seeing how your extremely long range forecast works out than the details of any particular analog year. I would take eithrr I had a big miss with Jan temps, but other than that...its been good. How was the play, Mrs. Lincoln...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. Do it by month then avg it when its over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Any reason why the GFS solution is being discounted. Seems equally likely to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoth said: If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. Everyone's grading system is their own. But I'd forgive a lot of sins if we got a 30"+ snowstorm....even in a winter like this. I wouldn't give it a good grade, but I'd prob elevate it to like a C or C-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: If I miraculously pull off a 3 footer next week and suddenly find myself at climo snowfall, what grade is fair for the winter? I’m still inclined to fail it for the dumpster fire to date, but others may feel differently. Any season with a 24-30” storm is an automatic A for me. Just is. Maybe not SEMA where they fart out 2 footers but for me, a top echelon snowfall overrides any seasonal deficiencies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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