ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Man.... Tuesday looks tasty. Synoptically, this is pretty classic for SNE Miller B. Ohio Valley shortwave running into a blocked 50/50 low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Synoptically, this is pretty classic for SNE Miller B. Ohio Valley shortwave running into a blocked 50/50 low Can we get greedy and ask for 10 .. 15% more mid level kinematics in the breaking wave? Then we'd go from 5:1 year return rater to a historical entry. Who's with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Did you guys do an actual trend comparison 00z to 12z ( eps)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Can we get greedy and ask for 10 .. 15% more mid level kinematics in the breaking wave? Then we'd go from 5:1 year return rater to a historical entry. Who's with me! Get that trailing shortwave north fo Montana/Dakotas to catch up with it right as it's nuking south of us....then get a 12-18 hour stall/bombogenesis there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm pretty sure 1956 works as a partial analog with the preceding global/long turn indicators... although I don't like using index correlations from mid last Century now, when there are so many coherent changes to the way the circulation modes actually behave ...most likely owing to CC... but let's not go there. Anyway, I'm not sure how that fits into the La Nina warm spring climate model either - hahaha. Jesus Ray and Scooter almost came to blows around a week ago at suggesting 1956. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Did you guys do an actual trend comparison 00z to 12z ( eps)? A few posts up....brooklynwx has an animation comparing them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray and Scooter almost came to blows around a week ago at suggesting 1956. Scooter also put a hit out on George lest we forget. Guy is the AL capone of weather 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS ain't backing down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 this is the feature that I'm referring to, btw, if it was unclear. this essentially prevents the S/W from gaining latitude and forces it to go offshore. this feature was more downstream of the S/W yesterday, causing it to gain latitude rather than where it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A few posts up....brooklynwx has an animation comparing them I can always wait for Piv or TT or something I guess duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: Scooter also put a hit out on George lest we forget. Guy is the AL capone of weather Scooter melted this past weekend over an overnight eps run and just lost it from there. Beating up Jorge, arguing with Ray about 1956…just pure destruction in the wake of his path. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Get that trailing shortwave north fo Montana/Dakotas to catch up with it right as it's nuking south of us....then get a 12-18 hour stall/bombogenesis there. It almost does at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Scooter melted this past weekend over an overnight eps run and just lost it from there. Beating up Jorge, arguing with Ray about 1956…just pure destruction in the wake of his path. He's still pissed about the Weymouth heart and kettle closure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Scooter melted this past weekend over an overnight eps run and just lost it from there. Beating up Jorge, arguing with Ray about 1956…just pure destruction in the wake of his path. Well ...just for the record, not trying to start a fight - haha. No but I'm pretty well versed in the generic history of the ENSO, mid last Century to present... I've needed to check it enough that it's just sort of passively in my head. I know that the ENSO was low to moderate NINA for an equally-ish long period of time preceding that March that year. Like 2 or 3 years of it... Seeing as this years ENSO has demonstrated a far better actual coupled state with the larger circulation manifold of the hemisphere, I have a better attitude toward actually using it - haha. seriously though... This: 1954 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the feature that I'm referring to, btw, if it was unclear. this essentially prevents the S/W from gaining latitude and forces it to go offshore. this feature was more downstream of the S/W yesterday, causing it to gain latitude rather than where it is now Yes...the mini-split flow little Hudson Bay block/ridge is a very classic feature seen on so many of our Miller B storms. It all starts with the Atlantic car pileup from that developing block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If only it was day 3 not day 7, hope it holds Its 5-6.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ...just for the record, not trying to start a fight - haha. No but I'm pretty well versed in the generic history of the ENSO, mid last Century to present... I've needed to check it enough that it's just sort of passively in my head. I know that the ENSO was low to moderate NINA for an equally-ish long period of time preceding that March that year. Like 2 or 3 years of it... Seeing as this years ENSO has demonstrated a far better actual coupled state with the larger circulation manifold of the hemisphere, I have a better attitude toward actually using it - haha. seriously though... This: 1954 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 Hmmmm…decaying prolonged nina with well timed arctic blocking similarities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Scooter melted this past weekend over an overnight eps run and just lost it from there. Beating up Jorge, arguing with Ray about 1956…just pure destruction in the wake of his path. When did I melt? I said this is what we don't want. But yeah, the call has been placed...but the signal not given for the hit on George quite yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Hmmmm…decaying prolonged nina with well timed arctic blocking similarities? in its basic sense ... yeah.. fwiw, the Jan - Apr NAO of yesterwhence; I actually like the subtle relaxation in Mar that year ...such that it wasn't overbearing - 1956 -0.22 -1.12 -0.05 -1.06 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 If the euro op happened, I'll change Baby Spinazola's diapers for a week. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its 5-6.... Yeah the Euro has the snow moving into western CT by 132 hours and all of SNE by 138 hours....it's not a 200 hour fantasy at this point. There is still time to screw this up, but it will need to reverse the trends we've seen the last 24 hours fairly quickly. IF we're seeing huge Miller B solutions still at this point tomorrow, now we're like 108 hours out and that's getting into pretty good skill range for guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Synoptically, this is pretty classic for SNE Miller B. Ohio Valley shortwave running into a blocked 50/50 low Might be time for y’all to get yours while we turn our gaze south with envy. Although I think will get plenty in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That verbatim starts out messy wet snow, but man flashes to a tempest with trees coming down like Nemo. What we dream of. Wish it were the euro of a decade ago where we could lock without needing cross guidance support or ensembles. It’s modestly intriguing for this range. I just hope that if winter really is going to show up, thirteen weeks late, that it brings epicosity to make up for lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Snow mean for Boston on the eps going to end up close to 2 feet for the run. Dam impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the Euro has the snow moving into western CT by 132 hours and all of SNE by 138 hours....it's not a 200 hour fantasy at this point. There is still time to screw this up, but it will need to reverse the trends we've seen the last 24 hours fairly quickly. IF we're seeing huge Miller B solutions still at this point tomorrow, now we're like 108 hours out and that's getting into pretty good skill range for guidance. This temporal analysis is correct ... but... I'd like to add that it's not really 132 either - it's sooner than that. It's 132-138 hours until it's having a sensible impact... but the formulation of this thing really predates that by a day. The crucial pieces are already interacting by 120 It's one of those situations where if 120 verifies ...the other stuff has to. There's no synoptic way out - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: Snow mean for Boston on the eps going to end up close to 2 feet for the run. Dam impressive Whaat - I gotta see a graphic for that. 2 feet at this range? - that may be a first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Op candy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Whaat - I gotta see a graphic for that. 2 feet at this range? - that may be a first 15-17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: 15-17 okay, I thought you meant that for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This temporal analysis is correct ... but... I'd like to add that it's not really 132 either - it's sooner than that. It's 132-138 hours to until it having a sensible impact... but the formulation of this thing really predates that by a day. The crucial pieces are already interacting by 120 It's one of those situations where if 120 verifies ...the other stuff has to. There's no synoptic way out - Right...agreed. Once it reaches a certain point, it has nowhere to go except to track into the favorable zone. The block is creating more margin for error than a typical "unmanned firehose" type setup where tiny perturbations create large final differences in outcomes....but with that block and the pacific flow upstream forcing this system to hum along to the east into that block, it's really game set match once it hits the Ohio Valley around 120 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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