Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: This fucking euro run. What you don't agree with the 43 inches it gives you on Kuchie lol. Talk about not letting us out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This fucking euro run. not even over yet. I mean holy shit, this synoptic setup is pretty great a true -NAO with a massive 50/50 suppressing heights over the NE US. might cut verbatim, but that's what you want to see for a larger coastal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This fucking euro run. I see OE warm issues over SE Ma ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: What you don't agree with the 43 inches it gives you on Kuchie lol. Talk about not letting us out... Hopefully it’s handling the block the best with more press to come. Get this under ELI instead of SE of CC and Wrap the ccb into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What you don't agree with the 43 inches it gives you on Kuchie lol. Talk about not letting us out... Time to pray to Jobu. It is very bad to steal his snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I see OE warm issues over SE Ma ... Yeah messy at times, but shit I would be doing cartwheels down the expressway if I had 20". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What you don't agree with the 43 inches it gives you on Kuchie lol. Talk about not letting us out... Sorry 50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This needs a "preliminary" awareness thread - sorry, it does. I've seen enough - tell you what... I'll wait it out through the release of the 12z EPS mean... But the GEFs mean did trend, as did the GEPs.... This isn't just the Euro with 2 runs of consistency, it's consistency over top of a multi-sourced, multi-day -NAO situating up there around the climate friendly ( most importantly) cross-hair lat/lon ... NON overly suppressive position. It's also inside D6 as it crossing into the OV by D5, and is very physically integrated into the determinants of the entire local hemisphere. These ICON this and GGEM that's are really not accidents, despite - 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This needs a "preliminary" awareness thread - sorry, it does. I've seen enough - tell you what... I'll wait it out through the release of the 12z EPS mean... But the GEFs mean did trend, as did the GEPs.... This isn't just the Euro with 2 runs of consistency, it's consistency over top of a multi-sourced, multi-day -NAO situating up there is a climate friendly ( most importantly) NON overly suppressive position. It's also inside D6 as it crossing into the OV and is very physically integrated into the determinants of the entire local hemisphere. These ICON this and GGEM that's are really not accidents. I agree. this has to do with the development of the -NAO and the semi-permanent confluence that it's forcing as a result. the synoptic evolution makes sense I'm excited for the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I agree. this has to do with the development of the -NAO and the semi-permanent confluence that it's forcing as a result. the synoptic evolution makes sense I'm excited for the EPS right - 'index scaled' has the benefit to determinism of having a lot of physical momentum in the integration of the hemisphere, that's why big events tend to show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 EPS ain't backing down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah messy at times, but shit I would be doing cartwheels down the expressway if I had 20". yeah...it's gone almost immediately once the thing gets cranking.. interesting. In fact, it goes from that to having OES enhancing haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This fucking euro run. This is like that stretch in 1956....one after the other every 2-3 days...just don't tell Ray. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is like that stretch in 1956....one after the other every 2-3 days...just don't tell Ray. I'm pretty sure 1956 works as a partial analog with the preceding global/long turn indicators... although I don't like using index correlations from mid last Century now, when there are so many coherent changes to the way the circulation modes actually behave ...most likely owing to CC... but let's not go there. Anyway, I'm not sure how that fits into the La Nina warm spring climate model either - hahaha. Jesus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ok if this holds which is likely with such a loud signal I fill my schedule with “musts” so if I need to change my flight on 2/28 I can only make it AFTER the date of the current reservations. That’s a ton of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This isn’t like the others, we are tracking a storm with blizzard potential in the mid range now. Even the late December threat which once looked promising was cutting into Wisconsin once it got to the 6-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 It's interesting on the models that it's not really a curled bowling ball wrapping this thing up. In fact, that might be a good thing because it would cause a hugger. It's more this continuous vorticity stream with the strongest part of this stream in the second half to really keep the goods going. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 EPS definitely not holding back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, George001 said: This isn’t like the others, we are tracking a storm with blizzard potential in the mid range now. Even the late December threat which once looked promising was cutting into Wisconsin once it got to the 6-7 day range. The operative word ... I didn't like the gradient layout to be honest. Everything else is spot on... it's in the cross-hairs of climatology for biggies in a lot of ways, but... the incidence of the primary not fully filling over upstate NY is creating a 'COL' region in the pressure field, which limits the PGF around the NW arc. In fact, there may not be much wind at all if this solution were to verify, verbatim, out around Orange Mass... But cross that bridge ...I'm likely getting to into the grits for a system that's still likely to change some of that layout in future runs. It does have a tightly wound CCB conveyor ...like a 30 mile wide band of wind from Boston to Providence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Jobu......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 EPS definitely not holding back I need this one Will, for you guys and forMe. I would 100% chase this. Haven’t even seen a dusting here in Philly I’m in a bad way lol. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's interesting on the models that it's not really a curled bowling ball wrapping this thing up. In fact, that might be a good thing because it would cause a hugger. It's more this continuous vorticity stream with the strongest part of this stream in the second half to really keep the goods going. Yep! Not sure there is a very good analog for this/that. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 27 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: By who lol. I honestly don't remember there even being real threats. The last time we had a threat inside of 6 days that was this good-looking was probably last winter. 12/16 did look pretty good but not sure it ever really got inside of 6 days....the last great runs we saw on that one were during the 12/10 GTG when the Euro tried to reincarnate Dec '92....but then it turned crappier almost immediately after those runs. 12/23 looked good until about D7. This is prob the closest we've been all winter to a modeled warning snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Man.... Tuesday looks tasty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The good news is my wife said no one cares about snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 yup, EPS made some good changes here slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Man.... Tuesday looks tasty. no kidding ? LOL we're already like Templeton ( Charlotte's Web) ...rollin' around on our sated bellies full of d-dripping model data for the past hour 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ditty loses his bet before March 12 has a chance to set in? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 and look at those redevelopers as a result. sheesh. this is easily the best look that we've had at this range all year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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