40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Antecedent airmass is actually decent out ahead of the storm....it's just a question of the block being good enough to force redevelopment soon enough to hold in that airmass....if not, then we erode it and get a pseudo-cutter, but on the Euro, it redevelops and we're good. Looked marginal at the surface during the height of it, but yea...its not like we are dependent on evap cooling or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 TFlizz’s fave model, icon, took a big step to the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: TFlizz’s fave model, icon, took a big step to the euro. Tip has an ICON fetish on the DL...its his dirty 'lil secret..Shhhh... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada. ... ... mm, it depends which suite one chooses to side with. The EPS' local hemispheric circulation mode, centered on the same range as these images you've provided above ... would not either allow that type of anomaly distribution you see in the GEFs, ...or if so, it would be deteriorating/normalizing with extreme rapidity Not sure I agree with 'siding' with the GEFs here... the Euro corp has a pretty damn good handle on NAO as a phenomenon over the years - possibly owing to the fact that the NAO's barrel points at that region of the hemisphere with even more scope focus than it does here as a general tendency. ...that prooobably leads them to needing to get that index under control. Just sayn' ..or as much as they can... I dunno. It's kind of like what Megamike was mentioning yesterday ...best to choose a source that's local, over one from the other side of the planet. It's like Earth telling Martians how to forecast their weather - ... fun metaphor. Anyway, here's the EPS 850s for that same frame. Clearly there is a resistance difference in the amount of NAO exertion by the two sources, and that warm anomaly region doesn't get east of the Hudson without attenuation in a Euro-esque proxy... Up to Met and hobbyists to choose I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tip has an ICON fetish on the DL...its his dirty 'lil secret..Shhhh... heh... I like making fun of it. but, typically on here - anyone posts anything, it's become part of their 'street cred DNA' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: TFlizz’s fave model, icon, took a big step to the euro. Icon gone wild....but the reason ti did was because of the block. It was more Euro-esque and really held those lower heights to our northeast stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Antecedent airmass is actually decent out ahead of the storm....it's just a question of the block being good enough to force redevelopment soon enough to hold in that airmass....if not, then we erode it and get a pseudo-cutter, but on the Euro, it redevelops and we're good. Yep, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Icon gone wild....but the reason ti did was because of the block. It was more Euro-esque and really held those lower heights to our northeast stout. See, everyone ? Will now has a secret ICON fetish ... For now on, we all know that it doesn't matter what 51 members of the Euro suite suggests for a storm a mere 6 hours away, in reality ... it's about what the ICON had for it last week. He's got the lotion and tissues set up awaiting by candle light ... while he pulse clicks on the ICON refresh button like a teenage girl exploring her mouse. LOL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 ... stating the obvious ... The ICON solution can't happen because it has a band of choke snow 6"/hr rates over Methuen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That's a nice tempest on the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... stating the obvious ... The ICON solution can't happen because I like to choke 6" chickens over in Methuen Yea....thinking of moving... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....thinking of moving... Hide the chickens here comes the chicken fucker? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Will ...wasn't throwin' you under the bus, I just thought Ray's exchange was amusing when you followed it up so fast with an ICON post of your own. Both were trash talk, duh - Anyway, the 00z Euro and this 12z ICON solution ( hahaha...) are more back to an index-scaled suggestion. It doesn't make them right, but the idea of a -NAO onsetting mode change has been on the landscape really for over a week... So, it's like we have emerging solutions that have a plausibility - not just noise... We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Will ...wasn't throwin' you under the bus, I just thought Ray's exchange was amusing when you followed it up so fast with an ICON post of your own. Both were trash talk, duh - Anyway, the 00z Euro and this 12z ICON solution ( hahaha...) are more back to an index-scaled suggestion. It doesn't make them right, but the idea of a -NAO onsetting mode change has been on the landscape really for over a week... So, it's like we have emerging solutions that have a plausibility - not just noise... We'll see I'm just making light of the fact that you seem to be experimenting with that model this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....thinking of moving... OH that's clever. The seldom ever optioned, "I know you are, but what am I" retort - I think I'll double up my therapy apps for next week.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: OH that's clever. The seldom ever optioned, "I know you are, but what am I" retort - I think I'll double up my therapy apps for next week.. LOL I have a few open slots....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That icon run would be a nice way to make up for this seasons sins lol. Prob out to lunch, but that would be a pounding here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS is already trending at 108....not sure if this solution will be eye candy yet, but regardless of what the final solution is, you can see the block holding tougher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just making light of the fact that you seem to be experimenting with that model this year. No you're right... I was and admittedly so, I stated at the beginning that I was intending on giving the model a fair test - I hadn't yet. At the time, some NWS offices began mentioning it in AFDs... I just didn't know; lacked personal experience with that guidance. Honestly, my findings are not that great - mediocre and often just wrong to be blunt. But, having a mode change in a major index field, whilst other models have at one point or the other over the last week ... flagged 28th/1st ... it's more about the 28th/1st than it is the ICON being iconic of pos model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Yeah still needs work, but does try to redevelop east of BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Canadian does try to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah still needs work, but does try to redevelop east of BOS. Good step in Euro direction that run....hopefully we keep trending that sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Gfs is better, but still really nothing like the euro. Going to need more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is better, but still really nothing like the euro. Going to need more than that. not uncommon that the GFS slowly moves towards the Euro in these situations. If the Euro holds at 12Z I'm feeling good. This is getting close to the 5-6 day timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian does try to get it done. Yeah it redevelops quick enough and moves almost due east south of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Lets try and phase a piece of that PV lobe into the D9 system on GGEM ala March 4-6, 2001. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lets try and phase a piece of that PV lobe into the D9 system on GGEM ala March 4-6, 2001. LOL, it actually does but it's too phased and taints us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: The cold air thing is a valid point, but it is important to consider that if the storm is strong enough it can make its own cold. Kind of like the alien ship from the movie, Independence Day Resurgence, making it's own gravity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it redevelops quick enough and moves almost due east south of SNE An interesting aspect of the GGEM is it it never changes things over to rain north of Connecticut and Rhode Island… It may not have fully committed to a Miller B but it is far enough along over the threshold that it really doesn’t matter? That’s what it looks like to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Another winter stretch inbound. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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