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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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I spent 10 minutes observing the looping the stereographic layout of the NH off the deterministic 00z GFS and Euro solutions, and I couldn't really make out any reason to assess either as less likely regarding that 120 - 180 period out there.

Which nests the 28th system ...

It's important, because they offer world's apart difference wrt to that event.  

The GFS is a nod to seasonal trend, but has a progressive bias ( also ) regardless of said trend. It has the same eastern limb -NAO as the Euro ( they actually agree spectacularly on that specific feature out there by D6-7-8), but the effect it has on us, here, is the GFS doesn't transmit that effect. It keeps the -NAO influence more toward the outer Maritime and Greenland areas, and allows the Pacific/-PNA to proxy our events until much later ( that fantasy crap out there at 300 hours)

The Euro seems to be responding more to the -NAO over the eastern limb, by transitively causing a slowing/trapping of the circulation features across the NW Atlantic Basin. This transitive forcing ( meaning it is coming from afar) basically back-logs the escape latitudes and speeds over eastern N/A, much more an expression of a NAO exertion comparing the two models.  Thus, the local scale circulation mode ..and circumstantially advantageous to winter enthusiast, the mechanics of the 28th system ends up dumping a ton of snow across New England. The -NAO has a multi faceted support for happening -but when/where?

Flip a coin ... not sure I see a reason why either is more likely than the other.

Either we get 0 south coast snow to 4" of tired futility in the mountains out of the GFS. Or, something like 18-24" out of a slow moving, stalled CCB hosing into ample cold thickness, with 30 hours of S/W mechanics force fed under our latitudes.  

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