ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 36° and pouring at the moment. It’s amazing how many airmasses have lacked low level cold this year even when aloft is decently cold. So many winters we’ll have random events with 528 to 534 thickness and temps in the 20s. But this year, we’ll be like 528 thicknesses with 850 temps of -6 and 925 temps of -3 with sfc temps in the mid 30s with white rain falling. Lol. Cannot buy a surface high in even a half-reasonable position this winter. Tomorrow’s event is one of the first times all year where we have a good sfc high…ironically we lack a decent antecedent airmass ahead of it so we are still struggling anyway….hopefully one of these events beyond tomorrow can do the trick. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Scooter highs of yore… Yeah that’s a classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Great squalls this evening. Spicy drive home from Waterbury. Only a half inch of paste but stuck to the tree trunks and such, amazing how wintry a half inch can look when paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Futility back on the table?? No way. Scooter mini melted this past weekend for the collective whole. Took one for the team… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 45 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah 18z is absolutely bonkers Yeah. Had to put my weenie googles on for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Usually we nickel and dime with a few modest 30-38 winter events to get to normal snowfall or above here but this may be the winter we could do it in 20 or less the way some of these have worked out and look too going forward as there coming in more moderate ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, DJln491 said: Yeah. Had to put my weenie googles on for that one Again…18z is more times than not always exotic in either direction, but that would be nice and would take a lil of the sting away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 hell yeah. hopefully it’s not a blip this is run to run change btw, not raw anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: nice trend over the last few runs over the E US as the block ticks stronger Really need that to continue otherwise we'll be near normal at best as the coldest air is west. At the very least you can probably eliminate the warm Marches like 2012 & 2020. That block will stick around for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Really need that to continue otherwise we'll be near normal at best as the coldest air is west. At the very least you can probably eliminate the warm Marches like 2012 & 2020. That block will stick around for a while the thing is that near normal is fine for the first week of March. and then the cold air would get forced underneath the block into the E US, assuming it’s strong and west-based. that’s what we don’t know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Again…18z is more times than not always exotic in either direction, but that would be nice and would take a lil of the sting away. The last 18z was pretty wild too. Any specific reason 18z is like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 30.7F Moderate snow about 1/2" Band of precip is almost through here according to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS with a 100-hour storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, DJln491 said: The last 18z was pretty wild too. Any specific reason 18z is like that? Yes, the answer is BEER. It’s run during happy hour, under the excessive consumption of BEER its calculations tend to be off. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, the answer is BEER. It’s run during happy hour, under the excessive consumption of BEER its calculations tend to be off. Sometimes it produces especially weenie solutions when it decides to hang out with Crazy Uncle at happy hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, the answer is BEER. It’s run during happy hour, under the excessive consumption of BEER its calculations tend to be off. Exactly as I suspected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That was quite the long duration coastal that actually tracked favorably in la la land . Nice block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sometimes it produces especially weenie solutions when it decides to hang out with Crazy Uncle at happy hour. All I needed to do is op-ed an 8 paragraph rant about 'pumping the 28th breaks' because the NAO was backing off ( this morning...) and now during the day ... we start going back the other direction. see? all one has to do is bitch and complain and there we go. LOL No but that's about an ideal look for 'balancing' the -PNA with -NAO. It's a narrow window that we really need to work out, for this recouperation idea... Otherwise, heh... But it is what it is and we'll see. That said, the 28th is still a dead deal to us, because this NAO is just that delay I was talking about. So, whence we arrive upon the 28th, does that then get delayed again? God ...I hate the f'ing index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, the answer is BEER. It’s run during happy hour, under the excessive consumption of BEER its calculations tend to be off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 It's lala range anyway but ... that solution is also shirking D.C. to Maine out of a 30" history bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That low off NY/LI deep in clown range moves NE at 5 mph for about 20 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: That’s a great pattern for the WC, Europe and maybe NNE. That’s nothing for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: As shown I think the trough in December on WC was more amplified to the south which helped pump the SE ridge more . I think this could work for more of Sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 From a pure statistical or projection standpoint…It’s just showing the higher ceiling outcome. It’s not a drunk solution, per say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ah…so that’s where you get your ideas from. Makes sense. GL to your warm and wet March forecast for SNE then. We’ll see… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: From a pure statistical or projection standpoint…It’s just showing the higher ceiling outcome. It’s not a drunk solution, per say. I think if an active pattern and nicely oriented block holds you would see many weenie runs over the general north east area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Excuse me, weenies: if you are going to talk about such a divine solution, post some images. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Usually we nickel and dime with a few modest 30-38 winter events to get to normal snowfall or above here but this may be the winter we could do it in 20 or less the way some of these have worked out and look too going forward as there coming in more moderate ones. Yeah the plethora of 3-6” events has been very lacking this season. It’s either under 2” or over like 7”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Excuse me, weenies: if you are going to talk about such a divine solution, post some images. Like the 52” at 10:1 at IZG. Kuchie has them over 5 feet next two weeks, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think if an active pattern and nicely oriented block holds you would see many weenie runs over the general north east area March blocks can do this. We’ve seen it enough to know it raises the ceiling on events. Doesn’t mean the odds of hitting the ceiling is any better though. Some people think it’s the same. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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