ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Feet in CNE/NNE on the euro for the 28th. That one is worth watching. Even down to here. The antecedent airmass is solid so it wouldn’t take much to turn that into a really good storm. Of course, that would require us catching even a mild break which has been about as effective as Apollo Creed against Drago this winter. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good seldom do I engage in this sort of discussion but .... really? Serious Q: do you like 40 F mist in between 38 F straight rain nor'easters... always relentlessly every day ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That one is worth watching. Even down to here. The antecedent airmass is solid so it wouldn’t take much to turn that into a really good storm. Of course, that would require us catching even a mild break which has been about as effective as Apollo Creed against Drago this winter. If the PNA can change……and the NAO can change…….everyone’s winter can change!!!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That one is worth watching. Even down to here. The antecedent airmass is solid so it wouldn’t take much to turn that into a really good storm. Of course, that would require us catching even a mild break which has been about as effective as Apollo Creed against Drago this winter. lol, The signal is strong for that period, Just details TBD, Hopefully some can cash that has had a very lackluster winter to at least to save some from total futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the PNA can change……and the NAO can change…….everyone’s winter can change!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the PNA can change……and the NAO can change…….everyone’s winter can change!!!! The 12/11 event while we were waiting for the epic 12/15-12/31 period was the equivalent of Apollo’s jabs on Drago in the opening part of the first round. Everyone’s thinking it’s going according to plan…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: seldom do I engage in this sort of discussion but .... really? Serious Q: do you like 40 F mist in between 38 F straight rain nor'easters... always relentlessly every day ? Yes love cool springs 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 If SNE can get a big hit in the next few weeks I'll carry a log on my shoulders through the snowpack. and then pass out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 y'allz funny mu'fuggers Actually, this 12z run of the Euro ...I'm telling you, you can see more NAO exertion comparing 156 to the previous 168 ... f ...here that's why this run is better. It's subtle, but you can see how the 12z retros the NAO just a little over the previous cycle ( left ) and immediately ...the hemisphere responds by forcing the Lakes cutter more E. It just takes that little bit of adjusting and it forces the activity here, South. which ( now to confuse you ...) isn't really the NAO forcing it - it gives that allusion. It's really just that these features move as an integral at large scales, or tend to. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 12/11 event while we were waiting for the epic 12/15-12/31 period was the equivalent of Apollo’s jabs on Drago in the opening part of the first round. Everyone’s thinking it’s going according to plan…. Ray coming out to Living in America...while the -PNA (Drago) awaits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Feet in CNE/NNE on the euro for the 28th. This pattern is reminding me of 12/2007 a bit... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This pattern is reminding me of 12/2007 a bit... There was more frequency of systems back then spread out over D-J-F-M, Feb had 11 events that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes love cool springs ..heh... 'cool' ? what I just described transcends a 'cool spring' ...and that's what we may end up with, a sort of protracted May 2005 deal. Not all SSW --> -AO effect our hemisphere the same...some may not show up, some do really bad like in 2005 ... But, we're talking physically raining in cold air... never stopping, not just cool. If that's what is really coveted, okay - but just so's we're clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 hooo... (exhaling) we can relax. The JMA saves the d-drip dosing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: hooo... (exhaling) we can relax. The JMA saves the d-drip dosing JMA has picked up on some big ones in the past if I recall....Not right very often, but like the RGEM I feel like it has led the way every once in a blue moon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: There was more frequency of systems back then spread out over D-J-F-M, Feb had 11 events that month. "Only" 10 here - must've missed one - and only one RA and one with significant IP; the other 8 were all snow. Looks like our depth might peak in late Feb/early March, when it should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: JMA has picked up on some big ones in the past if I recall....Not right very often, but like the RGEM I feel like it has led the way every once in a blue moon? no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ..heh... 'cool' ? what I just described transcends a 'cool spring' ...and that's what we may end up with, a sort of protracted May 2005 deal. Not all SSW --> -AO effect our hemisphere the same...some may not show up, some do really bad like in 2005 ... But, we're talking physically raining in cold air... never stopping, not just cool. If that's what is really coveted, okay - but just so's we're clear High 30s and rain isn’t far from low 30s and heavy wet snow. I’d love for us to get that type of pattern, we have an outside chance of getting buried due to a bowling ball low, and even if that doesn’t pan out we get a shitload of rain. Tracking rainstorms is fun too, and there is nothing better than going fishing right after a big rainstorm. At least for me that is when I have my best luck with catching monster bass. Regardless, there isn’t anything we can do about it so there isn’t any point in getting upset about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: There was more frequency of systems back then spread out over D-J-F-M, Feb had 11 events that month. I don't mean the whole season...just the modeled stretch ahead with the sharp gradient around my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Better EPS run today. Difference seems to be more out west (a bit less-PNA) and then this secondary ridge near AK. All sort of helping in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't mean the whole season...just the modeled stretch ahead with the sharp gradient around my area. Ok, Then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: y'allz funny mu'fuggers Actually, this 12z run of the Euro ...I'm telling you, you can see more NAO exertion comparing 156 to the previous 168 ... f ...here that's why this run is better. It's subtle, but you can see how the 12z retros the NAO just a little over the previous cycle ( left ) and immediately ...the hemisphere responds by forcing the Lakes cutter more E. It just takes that little bit of adjusting and it forces the activity here, South. which ( now to confuse you ...) isn't really the NAO forcing it - it gives that allusion. It's really just that these features move as an integral at large scales, or tend to. Well, the NAO never "forces" anything....it just acts as a block, but it never forces the pattern...that's always either the Pacific or strat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 32.6/26 Light snow has started. Big mood flakes. The Kurchera clown maps have gone wild for us up here. Of course they are overdone but still eye candy. Here are the GFS and Euro's including the potential storm early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Better EPS run today. Difference seems to be more out west (a bit less-PNA) and then this secondary ridge near AK. All sort of helping in tandem. we pray. this would be amazing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Ray coming out to Living in America...while the -PNA (Drago) awaits. Its funny to ball bust and poke fun in hindsight....but at the end of the day, I expected a -PNA with some periods of strong NAO blocking....and that has worked out. I'm not embarrassed to say that I didn't expect snowfall to turn out so paltry given those background states. Win some, lose some. This is why forecasting snowfall is such a crapshoot at a seasonal level....I nailed the pattern 2/3 months, but the favorable portion of the forecast (window for snow) just didn't produce. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we pray. this would be amazing Would be amazing, but amazing for who? In what way? I wouldn't guarantee anything amazing for SNE. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Would be amazing, but amazing for who? In what way? I wouldn't guarantee anything amazing for SNE. i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 If the JMA is correct for the NE USA, it's for the wrong reason. It's hard to trust a global modeling system that has an extremely course resolution... Based on TT's, the global JMA (the JMA has regional/local nests too!) looks like it has a resolution of ~1 degree, but according to < https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/gsm/#:~:text=The Japan Meteorological Agency's Global,layers) on an operational basis. >, the JMA has a resolution of 0.1875 degrees (20km). If the resolution is 20km, and for whatever reason, Japan truncates their output to ~1 degree, I'd (try to) trust it a bit more. Until I know for sure, in my opinion, the JMA is as useful as the NOGAPS. It's better to trust a modeling system that's developed by a country on the same continent as you. Domains are set and configured to emphasize a particular region. US weather isn't so crucial to Japan (short-term) so they can afford to truncate it in order to optimize simulation runtime or allocate additional resources somewhere else (say, add a nested domain in Asia). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, MegaMike said: If the JMA is correct for the NE USA, it's for the wrong reason. It's hard to trust a global modeling system that has an extremely course resolution... Based on TT's, the global JMA (the JMA has regional/local nests too!) looks like it has a resolution of ~1 degree, but according to < https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/gsm/#:~:text=The Japan Meteorological Agency's Global,layers) on an operational basis. >, the JMA has a resolution of 0.1875 degrees (20km). If the resolution is 20km, and for whatever reason, Japan truncates their output to ~1 degree, I'd (try to) trust it a bit more. Until I know for sure, in my opinion, the JMA is as useful as the NOGAPS. It's better to trust a modeling system that's developed by a country on the same continent as you. Domains are set and configured to emphasize a particular region. US weather isn't so crucial to Japan (short-term) so they can afford to truncate it in order to optimize simulation runtime or allocate additional resources somewhere else (say, add a nested domain in Asia). Yea, forecasters need to stop rip n' reading theJMA...its not all is cracked up to be- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its funny to ball bust and poke fun in hindsight....but at the end of the day, I expected a -PNA with some periods of strong NAO blocking....and that has worked out. I'm not embarrassed to say that I didn't expect snowfall to turn out so paltry given those background states. Win some, lose some. This is why forecasting snowfall is such a crapshoot at a seasonal level....I nailed the pattern 2/3 months, but the favorable portion of the forecast (window for snow) just didn't produce. Same. But, given some other atmospheric features, I did not expect to be crucified in the snow department. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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