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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm not sure if I have ever had a winter with 0 temps below 0F since I've lived here.   Good shot of that this season. Lowest so far was 3F.  I doubt I get below that later this week for the "cold" snap

Dec 24th has been the mark of cold here this season 18/9 

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49 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Unlikely, no cold air

There is in the northern mid Atlantic. At least sufficient for snow. It’s a small window and moderate event (at best) before we go back to ++AN the week after. 

This is a case where the highest amounts will be right along (just north) of the R/S line. 

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35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm not sure if I have ever had a winter with 0 temps below 0F since I've lived here.   Good shot of that this season. Lowest so far was 3F.  I doubt I get below that later this week for the "cold" snap

If the Euro and some of these other guidance type/cycles are right about next Friday night I'd suggest you do so with ease ..

Hm, it's possible that is a windier scenario holds it above the current 2-meter outlook. 

It doesn't stick around, either. The air mass comes in sort of Montreal Express, and then the high pressure quickly moves east and the wind just veers right back around from the SW in a lot of these depictions ... Considering the standard 10% reduction on amplitude for cold air at this range, combined with wind motion?  may hold it 1F at 3 am that night in reality 

Right now the 2-meter is about -10F along Rt 2.  we'll see

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My records are scattered but I bet we have.

The previous 2 or 3 seasons below zero has been rare, but I still achieve it at least 1 time.  This year maybe not.

Before this stretch is was fairly routine to hit -5 to -15F with a smattering of even colder (my lowest has been -19 since I've paid attention)

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

The previous 2 or 3 seasons below zero has been rare, but I still achieve it at least 1 time.  This year maybe not.

Before this stretch is was fairly routine to hit -5 to -15F with a smattering of even colder (my lowest has been -19 since I've paid attention)

We haven’t had a really good arctic airmass during mid-winter since Jan 2019. We had a pretty good run from 2014-2019 with arctic airmasses but it’s been nada since then. 

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This deep TPV event wanes pretty fast out there between the 3rd and the 5th of February. Towards the end of that transition period, the GFS ejects at wave into the E.

That is not an "as bad" look, because the elephant ass has left the trampoline arena, allowing other aspects to dent the flow ... ( heh, kind of hung up on that metaphor lately I admit LOL )

Anyway, I really feel pretty confident that this pattern change has arrived, and much to our collective chagrin?

      ...it is abysmal.  Deal -

I mean, really... .01 QPF spanning 10 days of the GGEM model ( and the Euro wasn't far behind).   The rain shadow of the Andes is one of if not the most formidable dry damned places on Earth, and that region gets that much from dew/frost condensation. We're attempting to pull off, at mid latitude N/A during the stormiest climate time of the winter season mind you ..., competitive results with the Andean rain shadow.    ...astoundingly bad... really -

So there's some hyperbole in that above.  In essence? it's certainly fair enough.   I really feel we need to get through this cold plume variant pattern and the elephant before much is going to take place.  This predicament synopsis is wholly prohibitive.  

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We haven’t had a really good arctic airmass during mid-winter since Jan 2019. We had a pretty good run from 2014-2019 with arctic airmasses but it’s been nada since then. 

We had short intrusions last January, giving our frost pocket lows of -29 and -30, only the 6th morning in 25 years here to hit -30 or lower.  The last extended (at least a week) cold snap came in Dec 17 into Jan 18.  The week 12/27-1/2 averaged 2.4/-22.1 with a max of 7 and min of -31, running 29° BN.  Extending that to 15 days, 12/25-1/8, the temps were 8.7/-14.1, only 21° BN but including a pair of storms totaling 21" and a max for the span of 22 during the 13" dump on 1/4.  Fort Kent wx

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This deep TPV event wanes pretty fast out there between the 3rd and the 5th of February. Towards the end of that transition period, the GFS ejects at wave into the E.

That is not an "as bad" look, because the elephant ass has left the trampoline arena, allowing other aspects to dent the flow ... ( heh, kind of hung up on that metaphor lately I admit LOL )

Anyway, I really feel pretty confident that this pattern change has arrived, and much to our collective chagrin?

      ...it is abysmal.  Deal -

I mean, really... .01 QPF spanning 10 days of the GGEM model ( and the Euro wasn't far behind).   The rain show of the Andes is one of if not the most formidable dry damned places on Earth, and that region gets that much from dew/frost condensation. We're attempting to pull off, at mid latitude N/A during the stormiest climate time of the winter season mind you ..., competitive results with the Andean rain shadow.    ...astoundingly bad... really -

So there's some hyperbole in that above.  In essence? it's certainly fair enough.   I really feel we need to get through this cold plume variant pattern and the elephant before much is going to take place.  This predicament synopsis is wholly prohibitive.  

Of course, 10 days is different from 300 years.  :o

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It does appear though (AT LEAST THROUGH 2/8-2/10 ANYWAY) that my warnings to the warm February boys club about going torchy in Feb in a Nina after Jan was torchy is dangerous because history has shown that usually Feb is colder or at least near normal in La Ninas where that has happened.  88-89 was a good example of it.  Lets hope we don't see Norfolk do as well as they did in February 89 though

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nice rain bomb on Feb 6 on GFS. 

 

It makes no sense really...I guess if the flow is truly THAT fast the high would bolt out that quick but chances are even without blocking that high is not gonna escape that fast so you'd probably at least see a snow to rain scenario

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It does appear though (AT LEAST THROUGH 2/8-2/10 ANYWAY) that my warnings to the warm February boys club about going torchy in Feb in a Nina after Jan was torchy is dangerous because history has shown that usually Feb is colder or at least near normal in La Ninas where that has happened.  88-89 was a good example of it.  Lets hope we don't see Norfolk do as well as they did in February 89 though

Feb 1989 gave me PTSD as a young weenie. First all the cold/dry then cutter…and then the 2/24-25 monster bust. 

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