CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cabooses north? It might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All about how the block retrogrades. If it sort of stays shunted south of greenland, then it’s not gonna help us much and it will prob stay fairly mild. If it can retro into greenland, then you will get a better response south of it in SE Canada and New England which would prob give us several opportunities. But if it’s one of these deals where it meanders over the North Atlantic and then tries to poke into the Davis strait from the south, that’s mostly hot garbage in a -PNA. Most of the uglier solutions are some version of that where the fun solutions are not. That image above from 12z Saturday displays it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. I honestly don't even know why you are worrying about it when gou declared winter over the other day anyway. We know nothing is going to change. Not worth getting upset over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. jesus dude they aren't even over yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. Sat/Sun is the best chance we are gonna get for the forseeable future in the NYC/BOS corridor...we have to hope the meat grinder idea is wrong and this comes back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: jesus dude they aren't even over yet Why look at the long range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. Did you think it was going away? Pretty much everyone keeps saying the pacific isn’t changing. Our help is going to have to come from the Atlantic side which already leaves New England with not much wiggle room. NYC is even less. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why look at the long range ? it's just that they aren't awful at all. they're actually very active with two storm possibilities so far NYC will just have to wait longer and have less wiggle room. personally I think the 3/5-3/20 window has the most promise for the entire NE US but everyone is exhausted so there's no need to really elaborate on that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's just that they aren't awful at all. they're actually very active with two storm possibilities so far NYC will just have to wait longer and have less wiggle room. personally I think the 3/5-3/20 window has the most promise for the entire NE US but everyone is exhausted so there's no need to really elaborate on that But but but the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Good thing I don't get as excited as Wiz does about being included in a "Slight Risk" area. The again, this as as much chance of verifying as any of those severe ones do in this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 there remains a pretty strong signal for a wintry system early next week with the shortwave ejecting out of the Midwest. just depends on the amount of confluence in place beforehand 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. The models are struggling with the blocking. The trough out west isn’t going anywhere but I think they will correct to a broad conus trough rather than blocking and an se ridge. I don’t think it makes a whole lot of sense to have strong se ridging and blocking at the same time. I could be wrong, but I really don’t think we are getting a repeat of December. In March the wavelengths are shorter, so even if we do get the same pattern the results will likely end up being better. This winter has sucked but when we see blocking like this the potential is extremely high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I would think a trough out west with strong blocking would be good for us in New England, but it depends on where the blocking sets up. The blocking was south based in December and that is horrible, we want North based blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Also isn’t East based blocking better for New England than west based? I thought west based was better for the mid Atlantic, and south based just shoves the cold SW while we roast and rain. North based has the highest ceiling, with some of the biggest New England blizzards occurring with north based blocking. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s how I thought it worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol I am watching the latest episode right now. Its brutal And unfortunately a likely accurate depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Also isn’t East based blocking better for New England than west based? I thought west based was better for the mid Atlantic, and south based just shoves the cold SW while we roast and rain. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s how I thought it worked. East based blocking tends to be better when we have a serviceable pacific pattern. When the pac is mostly dogshit like it will be coming up, you want that block to maximize confluence and cold in southeast Canada…that would be in the form of a greenland/Davis strait block that comes in from the east. We do NOT want the block coming in from the south, that just won’t get it done with the pacific like it is. It needs to come in more from the east bexause that will be way more efficient at pinning the 50/50 subvortex there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Did you think it was going away? Pretty much everyone keeps saying the pacific isn’t changing. Our help is going to have to come from the Atlantic side which already leaves New England with not much wiggle room. NYC is even less. Only a few more weeks and none of this will matter. The agony is almost over. I think NYC south is done. Even if things improve later in March climo works against them in a big way but SNE will do well as long as the blocking plays out as forecast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: East based blocking tends to be better when we have a serviceable pacific pattern. When the pac is mostly dogshit like it will be coming up, you want that block to maximize confluence and cold in southeast Canada…that would be in the form of a greenland/Davis strait block that comes in from the east. We do NOT want the block coming in from the south, that just won’t get it done with the pacific like it is. It needs to come in more from the east bexause that will be way more efficient at pinning the 50/50 subvortex there. this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block Yes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block Day 16 on the GEM ens mean...pissah lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what we want. this would have very high potential verbatim with the 50/50 dipole and west-based block Even there i’d still prefer the base of that block to have a bit more latitude than it does (see how it’s almost coming in from the southeast instead of more from the east?). But yeah, verbatim you see a really strong 50/50 response to it which would serve us well. I just want to have more wiggle room as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Day 16 on the GEM ens mean...pissah lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Of course when we have a decent airmass, the s/w grinds to shit like on the euro. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: We are fooked in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Feet in CNE/NNE on the euro for the 28th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We are fooked in April. Good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I like the appeal outside today though ...least around here. We got the old 'under the radar' grits and flurries going... it's a solid fireplace afternoon. Also, that looks somewhat convective out there in NYS ...wonder if we can't get a burst later this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We are fooked in April. Lawn thread delayed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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