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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Are we sure we want it to snow? God it’s nice out. 

Ha ha ...  thought did cross my mind.   Plan on doing 5 mi run outside for a change... 

But, wake up and it's cloudy tomorrow morning with some wet aggies starting to fall and I'm sure I'll swap out my mood pretty fast. 

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29 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s why I started tracking and getting excited about rainstorms and torches as well, only tracking snowstorms was just getting me frustrated and it wasn’t fun anymore, so I made the decision to start getting excited about warmer weather and rainstorms too. That gave me a lot more enjoyment with this “winter”, despite it not really being much of a winter at all. Instead of getting upset about what we can’t control, why not make the best of the weather we get?

..that is what happens when a hobby turns into an obsession. Some people here do obsess over the weather. I think it is clear that some individuals let the weather impact their well being. 

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

..that is what happens when a hobby turns into an obsession. Some people here do obsess over the weather. I think it is clear that some individuals let the weather impact their well being. 

I don't think it's even the weather ...

It's the cinema in the guidance before hand ...and the excitement impulse of that aspect, specifically... It's quite likely related to an addictive response -

that's what it seems to me.

But, that said ... so what?  it's not up to anyone to attempt to correct that behavior.

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15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..that is what happens when a hobby turns into an obsession. Some people here do obsess over the weather. I think it is clear that some individuals let the weather impact their well being. 

You tried to give a dig to a degreed Met offering long range ensemble guidance… and got pushback. Take the licks like a champ, ha.

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Just now, bwt3650 said:

hahaha...come on bro.  Like it wasn't a shot toward him...my kids say that stuff "all I did was ask a question"

nope wasn't a shot...it was more about how bad the models have been this winter. ....in was my way of saying don't rely on the models in the long term.  Some people are too sensitive and too defensive. I'm seen similar questions asked..

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

So this is a chat GPT forecast buy a robot?

Kind of.  Been that way for the past 20 years.  So it obviously preceeds that but I wonder if they use it now....lol.   OT but we're planning a trip to Sicily in October and chat GPT has given us some itinerary ideas.   Kind of scary what they know about you.....

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

nope wasn't a shot...it was more about how bad the models have been this winter. ....in was my way of saying don't rely on the models in the long term.  Some people are too sensitive and too defensive. I'm seen similar questions asked..

“Siri give me that one about that river in Egypt”

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Back to the here and now. Several shots in the next 3 weeks. Let's go. Full on winter enroute. Have to think those gummies will be melting in my mouth by March 7th.

I don’t think it’s full-on winter yet on guidance…we’re still dealing with how the NAO block manifests and interacts with the pacific state. There will definitely be chances but we could easily mix in a warm storm or two. We have a much better shot at trending storms colder than previously, but that doesn’t mean they all will. 
 

Theres a lot of uncertainty there. At the very least, there’s more reason it stay up for the 00z runs these days. We’ll see if we can get this block to retrograde into a good position ala 2018. But I’m still leery of a more subdued and warmer version of the pattern. 

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of.  Been that way for the past 20 years.  So it obviously preceeds that but I wonder if they use it now....lol.   OT but we're planning a trip to Sicily in October and chat GPT has given us some itinerary ideas.   Kind of scary what they know about you.....

I plan on going back there in the next few years, one of the best Vaca's of my life was a tour of Italy.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of.  Been that way for the past 20 years.  So it obviously preceeds that but I wonder if they use it now....lol.   OT but we're planning a trip to Sicily in October and chat GPT has given us some itinerary ideas.   Kind of scary what they know about you.....

They’ll never know all that we know Jerry, those of us who participate on this board for all these years.  “ chat GPT write me a paper about Jerry and Leon“

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Fwiw re the 28th-

Euro is farther N before cutting over to a Miller B.    The solution looks odd though. Not sure that's likely... 

The GEPs, wow what a correction by that ensemble system.  Went from a broad ..vague cyclonic curvature with a spattering of members to variable depths, all the way down to 994 mb inside of several closed contours just E of the Cape -198 hrs.  It's got several members below 970 mb around Logan...  jesus.  That's about as loud a signal as is physically possible from this range.

The GEFs is about where it's been the last several cycles, though it's been ticking NW overall by small movements. It's more 1000 ...998-ish. Decent..

Haven't seen the 12z EPS but the 00z EPS mean argues the operational is a significant NW outlier overall.  It has a classic Miller B transition to S of LI, and it too is 994-ish at D8/9 ...That's also just about as coherent as is ever going to be seen at this range.  Just for shits and giggles...it's got one member that's 952 mb about 30 mi W of ACK!  actually ...I miss read that.  982 ... maybe 962.  anyway It'll be interesting to see what it looks like as 12z

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

58 , just a ho hum plus 20 high on daily...no real  hype with it ..just run of the mill day in February  2023  .  Even a brief mild day to caribou (43f) . Meanwhile 37 In PF land w probably snow showers en route 

Dippin dots (graupel) showers this afternoon.  Been pouring graupel at times in short duration near 40F. Very autumn/spring vibe… dark almost convective sky.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

58 , just a ho hum plus 20 high on daily...no real  hype with it ..just run of the mill day in February  2023  .  Even a brief mild day to caribou (43f) . Meanwhile 37 In PF land w probably snow showers en route 

I’m up in Glen NH and it was 45F at the base of Wildcat this afternoon. 

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15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

58 , just a ho hum plus 20 high on daily...no real  hype with it ..just run of the mill day in February  2023  .  Even a brief mild day to caribou (43f) . Meanwhile 37 In PF land w probably snow showers en route 

It's on my mind.. didn't want to troll the mood  - haha...

But I did see a graphic a couple days ago that Boston ( assuming really Logan -) was running 3rd place in all-time warmest winters.   Also the assumption, that must mean DJF averages.

The 2nd place, 2015-2016 was a single decimal point warmer...  may be in jeopardy of ceding the tie.  I dunno -

Also wondering what's the deal with the other climo sites in the region.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think it’s full-on winter yet on guidance…we’re still dealing with how the NAO block manifests and interacts with the pacific state. There will definitely be chances but we could easily mix in a warm storm or two. We have a much better shot at trending storms colder than previously, but that doesn’t mean they all will. 
 

Theres a lot of uncertainty there. At the very least, there’s more reason it stay up for the 00z runs these days. We’ll see if we can get this block to retrograde into a good position ala 2018. But I’m still leery of a more subdued and warmer version of the pattern. 

Just speaking of the next 5 days of snow sleet freezing rain  then an Arctic front with squalls. Full winter nights with snow OTG. Let's go

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