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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He turned into a warmista this winter for some reason.

Weird

Negative. I love snow as much as the next guy, but this season has been tiresome. I’m at the point where we are going to need to be on the doorstep of a threat to feel confident in anything.

 

I mean this with 100% honesty, I hope we can get some more 60s and 70s in here. It beats the hell out of tracking cold rain.

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14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll add that we did get a couple of good events in Mar ‘99 too as that month turned very blocky…but the big ocean storm was Feb 25-26, 1999

Not much here from 2/25-26 but two 14" events in March: 6-7 and 15-16, with near-blizzard conditions on the 16th from backside NW gales under sunny skies.

Late Feb-early March might be good enough to put this season close to the average.  Except for south of PWM, Maine has fared better than most.

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro pretty close with the big dog.

heh... as of that 00z run it's a "too late" Miller-B  haha... 

actually, that event is the 26th system slowing and stalling/ phasing with other gunk S of NS... It's not actually the 28th/1st event - I'm just clarifying in general.  The 28th ( again ..relative to the 00z run), is actually trying to take a flight through Detroit.

One thing I'm noticing regarding the operational runs, they are delaying any exertion by a would-be retrograde and/or emergent -NAO, until more during the first week of March; beyond which, the extended GFS attempts the rare feat of retro'ing the anomalies right down into the EC, whilst the -PNA situates a broad trough in the W yet again - if that happens... forget it.

I recall the last time we saw a bigger -NAO signal this year ( 'Dec' the halls with balls of Johnny it turned out to be...), there was a series of cycles that attempted this same thing.  Q'anon Omega tried to jam it down the winter enthusiast throats... but, of course that type of excessive retrograde did not happen.  NAO didn't do much for us though... I really wish people would eat that shit and admit it, too, because I've been pushing for years, the miss-conception that -NAO automatically sends people in a d-drip fugue.  

I get it that we kinda sorta need it this time, because without out ...we're DEFINITELY fucked. That's relative to this year, though.  To me, it's a bit like that old joke where the guy goes to hell.  The devil tells him during the entrance interview ... the rumors of hell being entirely unfair are not true, "We actually give the damned a choice as their punishment for being trolls on "American WX' " and on and so on... The devil then takes the douche on a show-room menu gallery of various agonizing horrors for this bloke to decide...  Along the expose they come across this curious option. It's a realm featuring a vast sea of naked people, standing in dogshit mid way deep up their shins...

But here's the thing, why are they conversing..some even enjoying flits of levity, while holding saucers with coffee cups in one hand, taking bites out of donuts with the other...?   Considering all the other horrors on the menu, some so vile they surpass the mordant imagination of mere mortals ... what the fuck, at least there's coffee and donuts.  So be it!  He finds himself suddenly standing there along with countless other nakeds, in steaming hot dogshit to just above his ankles, with a cup of coffee and Bavarian cream filled Eclaire ...and just when he's about to sip and bite, the booming thundering voice from above exclaims,  "Okay everybody, breaks over - back to the push-ups!"

Biding time and waiting on an NAO that may or may not help us, is sort of like we're standing in dogshit, as opposed to suffering the no winter at all hell.  

 

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On 2/17/2023 at 9:19 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

I don’t think it’s impossible, but the GEFS indies show that if a legit -NAO develops, it is far more likely that it forces the typical 50/50 response rather than a full latitude ridge

therefore, I’ll keep it in the back of my mind, but I’m not gonna say it’s likely or anything 

image.thumb.png.d44b295bb9aae4a525119c6fa2e418b9.png

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12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Since November 1st how many images have you posted? And how many of those images have verified????

How is that analogous to posting 384h OP runs? Good grief…ensembles are posted all the time. Just because they didn’t verify, doesn’t mean they are invalid discussion and they are certainly not the same as posting an operational run that far out. 

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21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Since November 1st how many images have you posted? And how many of those images have verified????

God forbid we discuss weather maps on a weather board.

Do you want to become yet another troll?  Do we need more? FFS stop now before this goes downhill

Any maybe f-ing appreciate meterologists who come onto a hobbyist board and actively engage.

So maybe stfu?

(3 abbreviations for the F word.  I'm proud of myself, and not as disturbed as I sound)

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

God forbid we discuss weather maps on a weather board.

Do you want to become yet another troll?  Do we need more? FFS stop now before this goes downhill

Any maybe f-ing appreciate meterologists who come onto a hobbyist board and actively engage.

So maybe stfu?

(3 abbreviations for the F word.  I'm proud of myself, and not as disturbed as I sound)

Gee I never would have figured out they were abbreviations for the F word??.....thanks for letting me know!!.....

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