mahk_webstah Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That kuchie map on the 12z GFS is lol. we laugh, but this is the kind of look we got repeatedly before the January 25" in 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Tulips coming up. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: we laugh, but this is the kind of look we got repeatedly before the January 25" in 6 days. Yes now add some ratios and consistent cold and you beat that. IMHO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Tulips coming up. Tulips on the organ are better than tulips on the piano? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They are at 43” now . How much do you think will be at the stake in 15 days I think @Ginx snewxis saying and additional 4’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tulips on the organ are better than tulips on the piano? You beat me to it! I was going to say I prefer tulips on my organ than roses on my piano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, mreaves said: I think @Ginx snewxis saying and additional 4’. He said about 34” extra probably due to settling , etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 45 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I bet that is like limestone lol When I made that comment , I really was just stating that I could see a path to that being the peak, I said I certainly wouldn’t put money on it being the peak but it was more noteworthy that at that time we were looking at what seemed to be a mid feb warm period and not very active , cept for what at time was a modeled cutter .. so it was some ribbing . All in fun , as you know . I’ve always hoped that late month had a strong recovery that went Into March for the ski areas , I’ve had a lot of fun this year Yeah for sure, just busting your balls. It's just hard to truly grasp that environment up there is what I try to convey. Like despite the god awful pattern the past few weeks and occasional torches, the snowpack hasn't lost anything since January, if anything it's up a couple inches. Even seeing the massive red anomalies and huge positive departures just aren't enough to move the needle downward up there. It really takes until March/April for climo to start to try and dent that snowpack up there in a significant way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, dryslot said: That kuchie map on the 12z GFS is lol. 40" vs. 6"--makes a Pit2 decision more than easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Tuesday is a little interesting on NAM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Tuesday is a little interesting on NAM. Almost wants to try to transfer from Lake Superior to redevelop Near Long Island and then intensify to 992 over elbow of cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Euro hinted at that as well, but in usual nam fashion it’s the most bonkers. 3k is more tame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro hinted at that as well, but in usual nam fashion it’s the most bonkers. 3k is more tame. Rock n rollin time for you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 just for shits and giggles, this is what March 2018 actually looked on modeling around the same lead time. retrograding Scandinavian HP that moves towards the Davis Strait. a SE ridge actually does pop, but it is quickly flattened as the block moves westward and the ridging over the Aleutians creeps into AK the PNA is also garbage the entire time. there is a persistent trough over the WC, kind of like what we're seeing now. however, the -NAO was able to overcome it and lead to a great stretch of weather the main difference here is that the strength and location of the block isn't nearly as ironed down as it was in March 2018. if we do get a highly anomalous, west-based -NAO, which is certainly a possibility, then we could have a very nice pattern in place for the first few weeks of March. if the blocking is too weak or too east-based, which are also both legit possibilities, then the SE ridge will flex and we see no definitive change in our weather. I do like the AK ridge showing up on all three ensembles heading into March. this lowers the AO and EPO, leading to more cold air and a much more favorable pattern I am inclined to believe that the west-based blocking scenario is legit due to the typical Scandinavian HP progression... we've seen it so far this winter. we shall see. I understand the pessimism, as this winter has been horrendous, but there is the chance of an exciting pattern unfolding and just to be clear, I am not calling for anything like 2018 to happen. that was a unicorn of a month. just think that there are some similarities that are worth stating 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Tuesday is a little interesting on NAM. Quite the surprise little bugger that keeps trending better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, RDRY said: Quite the surprise little bugger that keeps trending better. The nam is sweet but right now it’s just the nam at 54-60 hours on its own 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The nam is sweet but right now it’s just the nam at 54-60 hours on its own Rgem kind of went nuts too at 12z. Looks a little more tame at 18z. It does appear that most guidance now has accumulating snowfall in SNE….the question is whether it’s 1-2” sloppy inches or if it turns into this 3-6” solid advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Several sub 980mb lows showing up just east of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending... Hopefully the ridge retrogrades just a shade more than shown which would make that event even more favorable. It’s kind of a tight squeeze at the moment where the redevelopment potentially comes too late. The 2/28 signal is actually a classic Archambault event for the NAO transitioning from positive to negative straight out of the original published paper in the early/mid 2000s. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending... Way to mess up our flight to FL around 21Z 2/28….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully the ridge retrogrades just a shade more than shown which would make that event even more favorable. It’s kind of a tight squeeze at the moment where the redevelopment potentially comes too late. The 2/28 signal is actually a classic Archambault event for the NAO transitioning from positive to negative straight out of the original published paper in the early/mid 2000s. Yea...phase-change event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending... Eps is best all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 EPS actually looks centered over the DM for 2/28. GEFS trended a bit better at 12z and GEPS worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS actually looks centered over the DM for 2/28. GEFS trended a bit better at 12z and GEPS worse. Doesn’t mean much but 18z gfs is nice to look at for 2/28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: just for shits and giggles, this is what March 2018 actually looked on modeling around the same lead time. retrograding Scandinavian HP that moves towards the Davis Strait. a SE ridge actually does pop, but it is quickly flattened as the block moves westward and the ridging over the Aleutians creeps into AK the PNA is also garbage the entire time. there is a persistent trough over the WC, kind of like what we're seeing now. however, the -NAO was able to overcome it and lead to a great stretch of weather the main difference here is that the strength and location of the block isn't nearly as ironed down as it was in March 2018. if we do get a highly anomalous, west-based -NAO, which is certainly a possibility, then we could have a very nice pattern in place for the first few weeks of March. if the blocking is too weak or too east-based, which are also both legit possibilities, then the SE ridge will flex and we see no definitive change in our weather. I do like the AK ridge showing up on all three ensembles heading into March. this lowers the AO and EPO, leading to more cold air and a much more favorable pattern Related to 2018, there have been 15 sub -0.90 March NAOs since 1950. All 15 respective AOs were sub -0.5, which is the threshold I use for -AO. Even more telling is that 12 of the 15 (80%) had a sub -1.0 AO. So, assuming the -NAO will actually persist through all of March, it will be interesting to see whether or not we end up with a -AO despite what current modeling shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 One change I will make next season is to incorporate in season ENSO checks...I do it obsessively all fall, and then just abandon it once I issue the outlook. I am going to keep checking it at least into January...beyond that, it doesn't matter as much due to lag. This la nina rapidly evolved into a modoki after having started east-based. Had I not been irresponsibly neglecting ENSO, I would have adjusted faster in season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 This is why there were so many MJO phase 8 head-fakes, and I would have expected that. If the block somehow fails in March, this is why, but hopefully its weakened enough. One March storm analog to be mindful of from the analog composite is 1984....2001 was much weaker, but could be relevent consider this is weakening quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why there were so many MJO phase 8 head-fakes, and I would have expected that. If the block somehow fails in March, this is why, but hopefully its weakened enough. One March storm analog to be mindful of from the analog composite is 1984....2001 was much weaker, but could be relevent consider this is weakening quickly. Wasn't there a big ocean deal in March 1999 that backed up and hit the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 34 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Doesn’t mean much but 18z gfs is nice to look at for 2/28 Still leaves a lot on the table, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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