February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[jbenedet]

I mean, next week is looking more flat and progressive than suppressed due to confluence. If the shortwave in the southwest stays south it’s more because the southern stream is unlikely to hook up with the northern stream; and gain little latitude. This disturbance cuts off at H5 over California by the way. Not exactly a good start to pumping heights. 
 

The H5 look is messy; disjointed. Unsynchronized. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I finished this winter with 11” of snow. Unthinkable 

[MJO812]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I mean, next week is looking more flat and progressive than suppressed due to confluence. If the shortwave in the southwest stays south it’s more because the southern stream is unlikely to hook up with the northern stream; and gain little latitude. This disturbance cuts off at H5 over California by the way. Not exactly a good start to pumping heights. 
 

The H5 look is messy; disjointed. Unsynchronized. 

All winter the southeast ridge was hurting us and now it can't help us ?

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm canceling my stormvista subscription. 

 

This is the earliest that I ever canceled it.

 

Pretty sad

You canceling winter?

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I finished this winter with 11” of snow. Unthinkable 

Drop your pre-emergent tomorrow

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You canceling winter?

I might throw in the towel too if I had a trace of snow through January. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Looks like a 36 hour deal to me.  Transient.

Cold short.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I might throw in the towel too if I had a trace of snow through January. 

Were good for a while here, 31.5" for Jan.

[NorEastermass128]

Maybe we can sneak something in around 2/11?  It might be a thread the needle situation though. 

[DJln491]

Time to shine up the golf clubs I guess. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You canceling winter?

Maybe

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I mean, next week is looking more flat and progressive than suppressed due to confluence. If the shortwave in the southwest stays south it’s more because the southern stream is unlikely to hook up with the northern stream; and gain little latitude. This disturbance cuts off at H5 over California by the way. Not exactly a good start to pumping heights. 
 

The H5 look is messy; disjointed. Unsynchronized. 

It may be adding big word choice to say, but I just prefer to call it a destructive interference regime.

Also, progressive, suppressive ... passive aggressive ...whatever we wanna call it, the flow is vastly too compressed with high velocities. 

The former aspect would need to be overcome to get much to evolve over the next 10 days of this. The latter aspect would then (likely) limit further, because system profiles would favor faster narrower/shearing type structures.  

Converged delimiters ( negatives ).  The operational GGEM and Euro manage 10 days with .01 base line atmosphere ( it'll frost that much!), with one 24 hour period of -20 to -30C 850 mb Montreal Express.   10 days with nary nada - it's really rather remarkable.  

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Winters of yore.

 

This was in 2011 at my folks. Wish we could time travel. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like clipper potential. Doesn’t look exciting to me at all.

I don’t think you’re too far north; you’re actually in a good spot to add a little to the pack looking out over next 7 days.
 

 

That is my hope and then I’m on board for an early warm-up. But you know the cold April is in evitable this year.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We are easily tracking for the worst season ever here. Not even close.

 

Also, hopefully it ends like 2012 where we just completely blowtorch and get to enjoy some really nice early spring weather 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 27th 2011 megaband that gave me 5 inches in 1 hour with winds over 50 sustained 30s. 2nd to 78 for ferocity 

Ugh...was torn between last year and 2011 at first ...bu then you said the date and it threw me off. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may be adding big word choice to say, but I just prefer to call it a destructive interference regime.

Also, progressive, suppressive ... passive aggressive ...whatever we wanna call it, the flow is vastly too compressed with high velocities. 

The former aspect would need to be overcome to get much to evolve over the next 10 days of this. The latter aspect would then (likely) limit further, because system profiles would favor faster narrower/shearing type structures.  

Converged delimiters ( negatives ).  The operational GGEM and Euro manage 10 days with .01 base line atmosphere ( it'll frost that much!), with one 24 hour period of -20 to -30C 850 mb Montreal Express.   10 days with nary nada - it's really rather remarkable.  

And this is the good period , correct ?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

29 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Time to shine up the golf clubs I guess. 

Winter cancel doesn’t necessarily = nice weather though.   Perpetual November. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Winter cancel doesn’t necessarily = nice weather though.   Perpetual November. 

Piling on

[dendrite]

lol it’s 1/28. There will be an event at some point just to F up your futility records.

[jbenedet]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All winter the southeast ridge was hurting us and now it can't help us ?

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

[CoastalWx]

A year ago people were fretting over boobie lows.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol it’s 1/28. There will be an event at some point just to F up your futility records.

What a dream for you. Deep pack and a +10 month. 

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

Now you’ve gone and done it. You’ve made Anthony happy. Just setting him up…and costing him another month of stormvista 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And this is the good period , correct ?

Well ..heh.  I guess it's a subjective vs empirical evidence question.  

Going back to circa November 29 and telescoping the month of December, given the synoptic and super-synoptic vision of the day.. that woulda been a helluva "good period"  

But it turned out to be patently, vastly under performed ...relative to that - although enters the subjectivity somewhat there, because the historic Lake cutter bomb toward Xmas in a purist's Meteorological perspective, makes that all worth it.  For consensus in here?  - such virtuosity is fleeting at best.  As it were ...that period did not do much at all ( for three weeks of 'good period'!) to appease the New England forum consensus.  

We then marched through a mid winter hiatus between so-called good periods, ...finally sniffing this one out 2 or so weeks ago.  Impatience ran amok but here we are, and the pattern change arrives(d)... and it's just unfortunate that what is modeled in the dailies, and observable in these super-synoptic circumstances ...both appear indelibly destined to another period that will set up good wrt to conventionality, but deliver less that what that convention would argue it should. 

Which ...it's fair enough to ask if maybe these guidance' are just going to far and that something is in there.  One could certainly advance the notion, the models tend to over-amp the late mid/ext ranges... If the models are too plump with the elephant ass N/stream, that may offer a shorter duration lead correction to something.  It's right in the climate hot seat for activity/winter storms over these next 10 days, precisely when the models are trying to sell almost 0 QPF during ...  But we've done this/that before... 2012 passed through this period with highs around 45 and partly sunny every day, too.  At least this time, we'll be cold... Cold is a good foundation... etc.  There's hidden arguments despite the convincing aspect of a season's worth of conditionalized sore butting ( lol), not exactly setting us up with the right frame of mind to uncover. 

...egh. 'nough of that.

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

Unlikely, no cold air

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ..heh.  I guess it's a subjective vs empirical evidence question.  

Going back to circa November 29 and telescoping the month of December, given the synoptic and super-synoptic vision of the day.. that woulda been a helluva "good period"  

But it turned out to be patently, vastly under performed ...relative to that - although enters the subjectivity somewhat there, because the historic Lake cutter bomb toward Xmas in a purist's Meteorological perspective, makes that all worth it.  For consensus in here?  - such virtuosity is fleeting at best.  As it were ...that period did not do much at all ( for three weeks of 'good period'!) to appease the New England forum consensus.  

We then marched through a mid winter hiatus between so-called good periods, ...finally sniffing this one out 2 or so weeks ago.  Impatience ran amok but here we are, and the pattern change arrives(d)... and it's just unfortunate that what is modeled in the dailies, and observable in these super-synoptic circumstances ...both appear indelibly destined to another period that will set up good wrt to conventionality, but deliver less that what that convention would argue it should. 

Which ...it's fair enough to ask if maybe these guidance' are just going to far and that something is in there.  One could certainly advance the notion, the models tend to over-amp the late mid/ext ranges... If the models are too plump with the elephant ass N/stream, that may offer a shorter duration lead correction to something.  It's right in the climate hot seat for activity/winter storms over these next 10 days, precisely when the models are trying to sell almost 0 QPF during ...  But we've done this/that before... 2012 passed through this period with highs around 45 and partly sunny every day, too.  At least this time, we'll be cold... Cold is a good foundation... etc.  There's hidden arguments despite the convincing aspect of a season's worth of conditionalized sore butting ( lol), not exactly setting us up with the right frame of mind to uncover. 

...egh. 'nough of that.

So we wait and see if something small to medium can pop during this time frame.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So we wait and see if something small to medium can pop during this time frame.. 

Pretty much ...

...while fighting the tendency to be less than objective about that. lol - it's hard.

[Baroclinic Zone]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A year ago people were fretting over boobie lows.

I had double the snow last year up till today.