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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Fully expecting down here a cold rain which is fine by me; wash any residual sand or salt from the roads and ready for Spring!

Unfortunately, winter 22-23 is that guest that is pulling up during the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl blowout. It’s 63-6 and you’ve already put the food and drinks away, but they’re settling on the couch and asking “What did I miss”?

The pattern change looks real and likely to have an impact down here, and while I am almost certain it’ll have no impact on the subjective grade of this all time horrific season, we’re going to have wintry chances, maybe even a “big” one through at least the first 2/3 of March. 

Spring will get here in April—or we’ll just flip to summer. Until then we’ll continue to watch the 4th quarter to see if any offense can be generated to make the score halfway respectable.

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This will be a fun week to watch For winter weather , where the Large temp gradient sets up and the potential for Melts is running high again . Certainly beats whatever the first 2/3 of February was 

 

NNE is golden, pike region cashed in on something respectable in late January, and the lowlands of SNE punted this winter weeks if not months ago. Not sure who’s emotionally invested and fragile enough to melt at this point :lol: 

All I ask is if we’re going to endure this instead of a flip to spring, that we get a high end big dog for all.

Let there just be one time where @MJO812 to @dryslot and everyone in between can all enjoy a big event together. Those are the most fun times on the board.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s not where the change is coming from. It’s coming from the PV pressing early on and then later it’s the retrograding NAO block. 

I'm not sure how any times can say no changes are expected in the Pacific. Pretty sure I just said yesterday that winter is over if the arctic  fails to deliver.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean right now you are at  the bottom 85% of your snow stake climo , as I can see maybe 8 years worse . But thankfully you should be turning things around . I’ll hold off on 4 feet but things look good , and I do hope you get crushed . 

The comment wasn’t about where climo sits though, no one says it’s a banner winter… it was about the notion of tossing in the towel and thinking things peaked in January for a location that has like a 33F average high the second week of April.

That 43” is the consistency of a paved parking lot right now. No settling going to be happening so a nice launch board.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The comment wasn’t about where climo sits though, no one says it’s a banner winter… it was about the notion of tossing in the towel and thinking things peaked in January for a location that has like a 33F average high the second week of April.

That 43” is the consistency of a paved parking lot right now. No settling going to be happening so a nice launch board.

I bet that is like limestone lol

When I made that comment , I really was just stating that I could see a path to that being the peak, I said I certainly wouldn’t put money on it being the peak but it was more noteworthy that at that time we were looking at what seemed to be a mid feb warm period and not very active , cept for what at time was a modeled cutter .. so it was some ribbing . All in fun , as you know . 
 

I’ve always hoped that late month had a strong recovery that went Into March for the ski areas , I’ve had a lot of fun this year 

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