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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How deep will 1.25 qpf of sleet get? 5/6 inches?

Prob more like 2-3”….you’d need temps in the teens and 20s to get the higher 3 or 4 to 1 sleet ratios…you’d want some pixie dust mixed in. Maybe over the interior has a few spots that have decent sleet ratios but most spots that are pretty cold in low levels are going to see some snow on the front end. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get that to

A) lay a little foundation down for the tuck

B nuke and send boundary further south for thursday.

Yeah even a couple inches would be welcome prior to Thursday. That clipper has been steadily coming south…though I still think it ends up mostly for NNE. But I won’t complain if we get something. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GEFS mean probabilities still decently north over EPS.  Would like this to wiggle south though… we all know the shift seems more likely northbound in close-in approach.

AAACEE6B-8613-4402-BE8E-3775D92B20F5.thumb.png.ef8d410baf324b4f0d2ac1e6254f09b6.png

3D55C28A-5649-4ED8-934F-1584FE5395B9.thumb.png.9c0bb46c99ab04401052d6896b5a98e4.png

Prob hedge toward GEFS idea until there’s a good reason not to. Still not buying much snow here. 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Over/under on Mansfield 4 feet next 15 days?

Ha, not sure on totals but I think the ski areas up here have another decent run in them.  Winter is never done in mid-February in the NNE mtns.

Need some of this from Alta/Brighton/Snowbird/Solitude Cottonwoods area...

Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-Western Uinta Mountains-
Including the cities of Alta, Brighton, Mirror Lake Highway,
and Moon Lake
318 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  feet possible, locally up to 40 inches Upper Cottonwoods.
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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, not sure on totals but I think the ski areas up here have another decent run in them.  Winter is never done in mid-February in the NNE mtns.

Need some of this from Alta/Brighton/Snowbird/Solitude Cottonwoods area...

Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-Western Uinta Mountains-
Including the cities of Alta, Brighton, Mirror Lake Highway,
and Moon Lake
318 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  feet possible, locally up to 40 inches Upper Cottonwoods.

It’s been really cool seeing the posts from NWS flagstaff. They’ve been enjoying a good pack. 

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