ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How was 2007-08 down in SE Mass? That seemed like a more interior high-end winter, but got there a different way through SWFE than nor’easters. It was mostly fine. Near climo (maybe a tick below) except maybe central and outer Cape/Islands. But far from a disaster It was much worse down on the south coast of CT/RI. I think sometimes people forget that the latitude of places like Taunton are the same as far N CT so in a latitude winter like 07-08, they won’t be nearly as bad as places like southern CT/RI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d agree with that. There haven’t been a ton of winters that were monsters in the interior but kind of meh in SE MA…but I think if you start in 2002-2003 the skew would be even worse because 1992-93 and 2000-01 were monsters over interior but for SE MA weren’t that great. Esp once you were more than 10 miles south of BOS. Yeah 92-93 was somewhat ugly in Attleboro, only 10" superstorm and 6" Dec 92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: 18z eps really thumps the pike region and north. I was surprised to see about half of the 50 members have warning snows to the pike now on that 18z run for 2/23. Been a steady cooling trend all day. I think we’ll need it to continue though because you know the inevitable north tick is coming with this at some point in the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: 18z eps really thumps the pike region and north. Looks like a textbook SWFE, with gradient around the Pike and heaviest frozen QPF from RT 2 up towards Dendy’s latitude. Lifting focused along and just north of the strongest mid-level gradient. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was surprised to see about half of the 50 members have warning snows to the pike now on that 18z run for 2/23. Been a steady cooling trend all day. I think we’ll need it to continue though because you know the inevitable north tick is coming with this at some point in the next couple of days. How does it look for us in the tropics south of the pike? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was surprised to see about half of the 50 members have warning snows to the pike now on that 18z run for 2/23. Been a steady cooling trend all day. I think we’ll need it to continue though because you know the inevitable north tick is coming with this at some point in the next couple of days. 5 inch mean is pretty high for Boston. Nice uptick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Modfan2 said: How does it look for us in the tropics south of the pike? Lol Not as good but still a chance. A lot of the members have sharp cutoffs near the CT/MA border…but I’d say maybe 1 in 4 gave you warning criteria. And maybe 40% advisory or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The system prior to 2/23 is also trending colder now. Bodes well for NNE I think l. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 5 inch mean is pretty high for Boston. Nice uptick Yeah it’s been cooling but I feel like us pike-dwellers will want to see that go up quite a bit more before expecting plowable snowfall. These strong SWFE with big SE ridges rarely stay on the colder trend. They start eating away like 10 miles at a time once we get inside of 3 days or so. But who knows…maybe this one will keep trending colder longer than we’re used to. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: The system prior to 2/23 is also trending colder now. Bodes well for NNE I think l. That system trending further south has been helping 2/23 tick colder because it drives the arctic boundary further south behind it. So we’ll want to see that keep trending deeper/south with the shortwave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was surprised to see about half of the 50 members have warning snows to the pike now on that 18z run for 2/23. Been a steady cooling trend all day. I think we’ll need it to continue though because you know the inevitable north tick is coming with this at some point in the next couple of days. Yeah I think we need several more cycles to have some room to spare for the inevitable bump north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The ever reliable Wunderground algorithm is putting 6” up for Weds/Thurs and 4” for a week from today. Been a while since it has had any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That system trending further south has been helping 2/23 tick colder because it drives the arctic boundary further south behind it. So we’ll want to see that keep trending deeper/south with the shortwave. Some @OceanStWx ensemble sensitivity number would be good for this one. I’d bet that shortwave going through the lakes on Monday night plays a significant role. I’d assume some of the west coast troughing also plays a role and probably a bit of the PV itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Some @OceanStWx ensemble sensitivity number would be good for this one. I’d bet that shortwave going through the lakes on Monday night plays a significant role. I’d assume some of the west coast troughing also plays a role and probably a bit of the PV itself. Yeah the shortwave and trof are the features. Not really surprising, but the GEFS/EPS both are saying the same thing - you want a stronger lead wave followed by a weaker wave that kicks out of the western trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Reiterating … … the whole hemisphere en masse is tweaking S, mainly wrt the PV. Been monitoring that. Every time it does … the depictions have moved with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 What a mess on this run in the interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Looks like the mid lvls ticked warmer but the llvs ticked colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like the mid lvls ticked warmer but the llvs ticked colder. Plenty of sleet midday Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Hoping any frozen is moved out of Albany before we fly in @ 9:30 Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 GFS goes full on nuts on the 28th dropping 18" on EMA... the 26th does seem to disappear though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 30 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: GFS goes full on nuts on the 28th dropping 18" on EMA... the 26th does seem to disappear though. Pretty classic Miller B look there. Ensembles have shown some transient ridging in Rockies so as long as that is there, that will remain an interesting date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: GFS goes full on nuts on the 28th dropping 18" on EMA... the 26th does seem to disappear though. Just view it as 26-28 window of interest....it will congeal into one threat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 I have seen some runs that had the 23rd, 26th and 28th/1st all producing but I do think that's probably not to realistic. Hopefully the 28th /1st dominating and has some legs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like the mid lvls ticked warmer but the llvs ticked colder. Im sure there’s a weenie over in Tolland, CT that is happy to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 hours ago, weathafella said: What does this even mean? Strong high to the north leading to frigid temps despite a low running inland. We’re getting a huge ice storm on Thursday, the SE ridge is really powerful and supports the idea of the low coming north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: Strong high to the north leading to frigid temps despite a low running inland. We’re getting a huge ice storm on Thursday, the SE ridge is really powerful and supports the idea of the low coming north. Good luck. Tell work/school you can’t make it that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 I realize that I am likely to be cyber-caned by the usual suspects for pointing this out, but I'm sorry..its a weather forum, so here goes. The EURO made a big nod towards March roaring in like the most exotic lion that we've seen. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 That is a White Juan that is actively trending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is a White Juan that is actively trending. Are you referring to the 28th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Are you referring to the 28th? Yea....just getting a head of the usual crap, folks that want to rip my head off for discussing it should do so in the melt down thread, or whatever the hell that abortion is. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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