Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Not sure if anyone caught this ...it's fairly tedious but I still paused when I saw the GFS, at this range of 138 hours ( 12z ), dropped Nashua's 2-meter temperature from 31 ... all the way to 19 F between 18z (1pm) and 00z ( 7pm) Thursday. That's a like tuck jet on steroids. I bet that would whip flags and come in like a BD white noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some of us saw this coming days ago. We’ll see but it’s a feeling in my bones. Thanks man. Hopefully the period produces especially for those that stayed even keel through it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks man. Hopefully the period produces especially for those that stayed even keel through it all. He was talking about this coming week . Not the same ole pattern in Morch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure if anyone caught this ...it's fairly tedious but I still paused when I saw the GFS, at this range of 138 hours ( 12z ), dropped Nashua's 2-meter temperature from 31 ... all the way to 19 F between 18z (1pm) and 00z ( 7pm) Thursday. That's a like tuck jet on steroids. I bet that would whip flags and come in like a BD white noise. You can picture hundreds.. potentially thousands of screen doors ripped right from hinges from NE to SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not for us. Icestorm sure Kev' if you really are buckin' for an ice storm, you wanna probably halt the suppression in the models now. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up more snow down to the Pike to be totally honest. It could. Again, as I outlined the other day, the greatest sensitivity in where the conduit axis for this mess sets up is along the interface between two dominant forces: -PNA/La Nina base; PV anomaly in Canada. That hasn't changed,.. but there are very small incremental S adjustments going on with the wholesale PV position ...thus that axis goes with it. That, and the fact the the models will not be able to likely resolve the BL cold by several tens of miles up to 100 or so, ...all told, you probably want this to stop now or we could milk sun and bitter cold PF to Dryslot, with snow ALB BOS and IP in NYC. Having said all that... PV repositions N by subtlety, this lifts back N summarily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Kev' if you really are buckin' for an ice storm, you wanna probably halt the suppression in the models now. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up more snow down to the Pike to be totally honest. It could. Again, as I outlined the other day, the greatest sensitivity in where the conduit axis for this mess sets up is along the interface between two dominant forces: -PNA/La Nina base; PV anomaly in Canada. That hasn't changed,.. but there are very small incremental S adjustments going on with the wholesale PV position ...thus that axis goes with it. That, and the fact the the models will not be able to likely resolve the BL cold by several tens of miles up to 100 or so, ...all told, you probably want this to stop now or we could milk sun and bitter cold PF to Dryslot, with snow ALB BOS and IP in NYC. Having said all that... PV repositions N by subtlety, this lifts back N summarily. I’m 17 miles south of 90 .. so anywhere 90 south is not getting any snow . What I am thinking is a few Inches of sleet from about ORH to Ray and south of there to about a DXR to HVN to NW RI then to north shore of BOS line mainly a zr deal .At least as of now . The extreme and record -PNA combined with that monster SE ridge will ensure there is not suppression next week and all of Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m 17 miles south of 90 .. so anywhere 90 south is not getting any snow . What I am thinking is a few Inches of sleet from about ORH to Ray and south of there to about a DXR to HVN to NW RI then to north shore of BOS line mainly a zr deal .At least as of now . The extreme and record -PNA combined with that monster SE ridge will ensure there is not suppression next week and all of Morch The pattern does support a big ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some of us saw this coming days ago. We’ll see but it’s a feeling in my bones. Yup. I mentioned it what feels like days ago now that this looks a little different than the same old setup we've had. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not for us. Icestorm sure Plausible for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18z run looks good was looking so good for metheun and then at hour 220 MD/VA up a 20” spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, George001 said: The pattern does support a big ice storm What does this even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m 17 miles south of 90 .. so anywhere 90 south is not getting any snow . What I am thinking is a few Inches of sleet from about ORH to Ray and south of there to about a DXR to HVN to NW RI then to north shore of BOS line mainly a zr deal .At least as of now . The extreme and record -PNA combined with that monster SE ridge will ensure there is not suppression next week and all of Morch Which wx would you most prefer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Which wx would you most prefer? I honestly truly believe BDL, BDR are almost locked for record low snow year. I think ORH is 50/50. I can see that one going either way. I’d love a few big snowstorms .. I honestly don’t think the pattern will alllow it south of the MA/NH/ VT border this year . I know there’s a few posters here calling for big snows in Morch. I just don’t see that as even a small possibility. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong . I hope they crush it and I walk away with a Scarlett L on my forehead. To answer your question.. I covet a huge icestorm before my time on Earth is complete. So I would prefer that . Just as I want a cat 3 cane hit . I’m sure neither will happen , but I’ll continue hoping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He was talking about this coming week . Not the same ole pattern in Morch Thanks man. GL on your less than 4” rest of season call and bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Biggest hinderance to a big ice storm is QPF. It’s not that much QPF in this system south of the main WAA fronto band which falls mostly in the form of snow/sleet. You’d also typically like to see the mesolow aspect tilted more NE to SW instead of E-W. The latter makes the ageo drain less efficient and slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I honestly truly believe BDL, BDR are almost locked for record low snow year. I think ORH is 50/50. I can see that one going either way. I’d love a few big snowstorms .. I honestly don’t think the pattern will alllow it south of the MA/NH/ VT border this year . I know there’s a few posters here calling for big snows in Morch. I just don’t see that as even a small possibility. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong . I hope they crush it and I walk away with a Scarlett L on my forehead. To answer your question.. I covet a huge icestorm before my time on Earth is complete. So I would prefer that . Just as I want a cat 3 cane hit . I’m sure neither will happen , but I’ll continue hoping You’ll probably have both before your life is over but you may have to chase to the coast somewhere for the cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I honestly truly believe BDL, BDR are almost locked for record low snow year. I think ORH is 50/50. I can see that one going either way. I’d love a few big snowstorms .. I honestly don’t think the pattern will alllow it south of the MA/NH/ VT border this year . I know there’s a few posters here calling for big snows in Morch. I just don’t see that as even a small possibility. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong . I hope they crush it and I walk away with a Scarlett L on my forehead. To answer your question.. I covet a huge icestorm before my time on Earth is complete. So I would prefer that . Just as I want a cat 3 cane hit . I’m sure neither will happen , but I’ll continue hoping I’m considering this winter full atonement for the glory of 2015. As far as im concerned, the debt has been paid off and we enter next winter with a clean slate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: I’m considering this winter full atonement for the glory of 2015. As far as im concerned, the debt has been paid off and we enter next winter with a clean slate. What was 2015 in Hamden? Just a basic above average winter with no memorable snowstorms in the western half of the state. I know it was MUCH different in the eastern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Biggest hinderance to a big ice storm is QPF. It’s not that much QPF in this system south of the main WAA fronto band which falls mostly in the form of snow/sleet. You’d also typically like to see the mesolow aspect tilted more NE to SW instead of E-W. The latter makes the ageo drain less efficient and slower. Can grab 1” of qpf south of 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What was 2015 in Hamden? Just a basic above average winter with no memorable snowstorms in the western half of the state. I know it was MUCH different in the eastern half. Yeah he was living in Cambridge in 2015…. CT is a tougher call. Was it great there in an absolute sense? Prob falls a little short unless we’re talking the northeast 1/3rd of the state. 2012-13? I think this one would have to be considered great only because it had the best CT snowstorm in over 100 years (1888). It did have some other solid storms too like 12/29/12. 2010-11 was a truly great winter in CT as well. Multiple big dogs with CT getting jackpots in multiple storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m 17 miles south of 90 .. so anywhere 90 south is not getting any snow . What I am thinking is a few Inches of sleet from about ORH to Ray and south of there to about a DXR to HVN to NW RI then to north shore of BOS line mainly a zr deal .At least as of now . The extreme and record -PNA combined with that monster SE ridge will ensure there is not suppression next week and all of Morch Be careful about expecting inches of IP anywhere...seldom works out like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah he was living in Cambridge in 2015…. CT is a tougher call. Was it great there in an absolute sense? Prob falls a little short unless we’re talking the northeast 1/3rd of the state. 2012-13? I think this one would have to be considered great only because it had the best CT snowstorm in over 100 years (1888). It did have some other solid storms too like 12/29/12. 2010-11 was a truly great winter in CT as well. Multiple big dogs with CT getting jackpots in multiple storms. 95/96, 02/03, 10/11, 13/14 and 17/18 were great years for CT. 12/13 was ok with one historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 95/96, 02/03, 10/11, 13/14 and 17/18 were great years for CT. 12/13 was ok with one historic storm. No 93/94? Regardless, I bet SEMA has the most AN deviations from avg snowfall since 1990, and it’s probably not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No 93/94? Regardless, I bet SEMA has the most AN deviations from avg snowfall since 1990, and it’s probably not even close. The BOS 1991-2020 30 year normal snow went up to 48 inches so for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No 93/94? Regardless, I bet SEMA has the most AN deviations from avg snowfall since 1990, and it’s probably not even close. I’d agree with that. There haven’t been a ton of winters that were monsters in the interior but kind of meh in SE MA…but I think if you start in 2002-2003 the skew would be even worse because 1992-93 and 2000-01 were monsters over interior but for SE MA weren’t that great. Esp once you were more than 10 miles south of BOS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah he was living in Cambridge in 2015…. CT is a tougher call. Was it great there in an absolute sense? Prob falls a little short unless we’re talking the northeast 1/3rd of the state. 2012-13? I think this one would have to be considered great only because it had the best CT snowstorm in over 100 years (1888). It did have some other solid storms too like 12/29/12. 2010-11 was a truly great winter in CT as well. Multiple big dogs with CT getting jackpots in multiple storms. Yes we’ve had many solid years of 60-80” around here in the past 20 years. 2010-11 stands out the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 hours ago, dryslot said: As Don Henley once put it, You can check out any time you like but you can never leave. They are the Boys of Summer after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d agree with that. There haven’t been a ton of winters that were monsters in the interior but kind of meh in SE MA…but I think if you start in 2002-2003 the skew would be even worse because 1992-93 and 2000-01 were monsters over interior but for SE MA weren’t that great. Esp once you were more than 10 miles south of BOS. How was 2007-08 down in SE Mass? That seemed like a more interior high-end winter, but got there a different way through SWFE than nor’easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How was 2007-08 down in SE Mass? That seemed like a more interior high-end winter, but got there a different way through SWFE than nor’easters. South of the pike it was sub par. I remember Max (Capecod04) complaining. Right on the pike including BOS did ok but 20 miles north was epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 18z eps really thumps the pike region and north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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