CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Ha that gfs op would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s what I’m going to say when my bills are running 3 months behind ..patience banks ..it will be all worth it You can steal money from a milf while I steal snow from Taunton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weenie davis straight block on gfs with a WC ridge to boot. Patience. mm... I know we've been over this so often the earth is now packed into concrete but I really don't want a big west based elephant ass. Not accusing you of doing so, but the jest tends to ensue a following of posts where people love the big 500 mb magenta, chart edging blob over D. Straight and I cannot underscore enough, that is not really what you want if you want ... E19 ( see above post)... Particularly if the -PNA/ southern warm wall isn't going away - which I don't suspect it is... It's anchored by 3 years of Nina momentum and more intangible angst than Sleepy Hollow. In fact, if the elephant sits on our trampoline height field, it may look like the southern warm wall is in abeyance but that would be an allusion - a lie betrayed by the fact that the wind between Denver and NS will be 120 kts as a base state velocity. It's trading altitude for speed... destructive interference Wrong... no E19 for you, ONE YEAR! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... I know we've been over this so often the earth is now packed into concrete but I really don't want a big west based elephant ass. Not accusing you of doing so, but the jest tends to ensue a following of posts where people love the big 500 mb magenta, chart edging blob over D. Straight and I cannot underscore enough, that is not really what you want if you want ... E19 ( see above post)... Particularly if the -PNA/ southern warm wall isn't going away - which I don't suspect it is... It's anchored by 3 years of Nina momentum and more intangible angst than Sleepy Hollow. In fact, if the elephant sits on our trampoline height field, it may look like the southern warm wall is in abeyance but that would be an allusion - a lie betrayed by the fact that the wind between Denver and NS will be 120 kts as a base state velocity. Wrong... no E19 for you, ONE YEAR! yeah, it’s really when the block decays. that’s when you get the big dogs historically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha that gfs op would work. Improving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 EURO looks a tick colder than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it’s really when the block decays. that’s when you get the big dogs historically I've heard the year 2018 bandied about ... I recall that year as being like that. We had huge -NAO in the midriff up there, and the modeled behavior was retro toward eastern Canada. We heralded it in with a big nor-easter in early March that was cat paws or cold rain... Really infuriating system. It was the one where collectively, the entire Met community knew about the ( at the time ) bias of the GFS for BL wet bulb thermodynamics... How that got through beta and released into operation was always a dog of a head scratch but it was what it was... So, it had a mid range, 38/29 QPF of 3" rain storm, and many of us thought it was going to be end up a blue bomb 33/33... assuming it wasn't properly saturating - which is wasn't. It was modeled replete with a comma head, CCB everything. Nope. 37/37 rain. I mean... wtf!? The GFS got to be wrong while still boning us... how d'ya do that? wow. The retro wasn't why the GFS bias screwed us... But the storm took a weird track.. it collapsed SE as it left into the Atlantic. I think that played a role, because it didn't allow for more cold to entrain into the circulation.. It was all good.. because less than a week later we were tracking a the real deal blue and I'm pretty sure the NAO was in fact starting to normalize a bit by then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 That’s a nice Euro run this week. Best GFS run in a while too for the whole run. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Might be a warm front in there. 50 degree spread across 150 miles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Lot of guidance is showing that cold tuck draining into the interior. Gonna have to watch that because if you get one of those barrier jets developing all the way up to like 950 or even 925, it can go pretty far southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 really nice change for the GEFS. that block keeps getting stronger… great signal for that range 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of guidance is showing that cold tuck draining into the interior. Gonna have to watch that because if you get one of those barrier jets developing all the way up to like 950 or even 925, it can go pretty far southwest. wow... I was just checking out the 2-meter ( GFS) for Thurs afternoon as the TT depiction has it... 18z has 31 at ~ ASH... 00z? 19 ! zomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: really nice change for the GEFS. that block keeps getting stronger… great signal for that range Good luck...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: really nice change for the GEFS. that block keeps getting stronger… great signal for that range Gonna need that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 We’ll take the EPS ebb and flow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We’ll take the EPS ebb and flow at 12z. I’m only loaded to 240. Can we back up off the ledge from 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I smell a ping fest/ice storm incoming for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’m only loaded to 240. Can we back up off the ledge from 00z? One run lol. But man that block gets nuts on the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: One run lol. But man that block gets nuts on the EPS. nah it’s not happening because persistence yadda yadda yadda we’re all just weenies 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Euro sends another ( the 26th one) right on the heels. Like 24 hour window between it and the predecessor 23rd ...which really doesn't completely wrap up until the 24th. It's interesting because the wind tries to turn S just before, but the turn around between systems is outpacing that the ability to warm by so much, it ends up just the same sort for gradient snow/mix/ice/cold rain - very similar looking actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One run lol. But man that block gets nuts on the EPS. Nice. Better than backing down on the 00z trend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: nah it’s not happening because persistence yadda yadda yadda we’re all just weenies That’s what we’ll need though. It’s gotta be a good one building SW. I’d also want to see this continue on multiple runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Seems like icestorm is becoming real possibility 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s what we’ll need though. It’s gotta be a good one building SW. I’d also want to see this continue on multiple runs. i agree with you. was just being sarcastic good to see that typical response to blocking here and not that SE ridge crap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like icestorm is becoming real possibility Maybe a two pulsed ordeal. The first, the 23rd, wraps up early on the 24th ... then clears and gets windy with falling temps through dark. It's possible there would be WWA and/or WSW zones in activation while there is a Watch posted for the 26th, which starts late on the 25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i agree with you. was just being sarcastic good to see that typical response to blocking here and not that SE ridge crap I'd be careful with that interpretation if I were you... I wrote about this in an earlier post, warning of that allusion to finally having the S-SE warm wall in abeyance but it would not in fact - or might not I should say... - actually be that way. It's just compressed to where it looks like the right configuration. But the large number of isohypsotic gradient and the associated base-line wind is a trade off between the ridge structure, replaced by velocity. The ridge is conserved that way ... It's insidiously hidden. But it is an interference pattern. I remember a -NAO like that in 2007 late Feb or early Mar.. ex Heh, near the end of Eastern's reign ... There was all this excitement and optimism for the NAO arrival and it showed up ... all we got was 4 days of gusty gelid knuckle achin' cold winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 this is a pretty classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. same way we got that December block 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a pretty classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. same way we got that December block Looks good for now. Omega and tblizz gone for now, will return if 00z takes a step back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a pretty classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. same way we got that December block with hints of a +PNA to follow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: with hints of a +PNA to follow? yeah... let's get greedy ... hahahaha j/k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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