SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Its gonna be way harder to get that crazy hookup with the wavelengths in March...I'd bet my life it won't happen 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Just getting up…5 below and a gorgeous sunny morning here after a fresh foot plus yesterday. Buried here. Lots of foot-plus reports CAR north. PQI hit -18 this morning, we were about +5. There and in Western Maine have done quite well after a slow start. I'm 1" AN season to date, thanks mainly due to being in the jack area in mid-December. If there's no snow thru next Tuesday it will be 1" BN. That Northeast snowfall table had all but 3 stations far below normal - BGR is only slightly BN. I can't recall seeing such a wall-to-wall ratter in progress. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its gonna be way harder to get that crazy hookup with the wavelengths in March...I'd bet my life it won't happen It’s not hooking up on that image. You still have that lobe to the northeast. But, we need that ridge in Greenland to build SW or we run the risk of lows up our fannies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 27 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Where the hell is winter wolf, Siberia? In an alternate universe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 January’s was a surprisingly solid snowfall month in Nashua . February has been another very warm month and a complete embarrassment in the snowfall department . I see a chance of An ice storm next week . My guess is PF starts cleaning up in the upcoming pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Did many of the GEFS or EPS members warm us up for early March as the se ridge flexed or not ? It’s sort of hard to tell from reading the mornings posts , I don’t Think I have access to the individual EPS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Is it too much to ask for , say, ep19 to come to fruition? 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did many of the GEFS or EPS members warm us up for early March as the se ridge flexed or not ? It’s sort of hard to tell from reading the mornings posts , I don’t Think I have access to the individual EPS members I was a little disappointed that my concern sort of appeared on the EPS, but as I said…..it was just one run. That said, that Greenland ridge needs to flex SW. That’s what the weeklies showed, but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 3 storm signals to close out the month, with the 1st being the least likely for wintry precip but the following 2 look more promising, Feb 23rd, 26th, 28th Spaced that close together in time, amid a ripping velocity saturated shear pattern? Nope - ...can't call those "storms" There's not enough time for all required synoptic parametric ingredients to situate in between. In fact, that kind of minuscule temporal-spacial layout is more indicative of how a fast large scale pattern type is intrinsically a negative interference against any embedded smaller scale disturbances (where/how 'storms' form).. Anyway, the former is just semantics rant ( haha) where because those would be physically challenged/limited in what they can be, 'minoring events' is more apropos. When we say "threat" and "storm" at any passing dent in the curvature of the field, and ( likely...) merely a magnified result perpetrated by the modeling cinema out in time..., then, bounce adjectives of the like back in forth in the colloquialism of the group physics, the group synoptic impression ends up stranded up a on a ledge where the only way down to reality is at 9.8 m/s-squared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 The upcoming week looks cool, gray and damp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Gfs certainly cooled off at the surface next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: In an alternate universe 23 years in NNJ, coldest was -14 3 years in BGR, coldest was -17 12 days in Fort Kent, coldest was -41 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: The winter as a whole is likely beyond saving in SNE at this point but that doesn’t mean we can’t get a big storm in March. Hell, wasn’t 1996-1997 a ratter outside that big April blizzard? Even bad winters often have at least one big (12+) storm. Regardless, have to give credit where it’s due. Boston is at 8 inches of snow for the entire season and it’s mid Feb, and the seasonal average is in the mid 40s. The Pope was dead on with his winter forecast. I will certainly be keeping an eye on the geese next fall to clue me in on what to expect next winter. My winter forecast was a huge bust (again), but we live and learn. The Pope is one of the best!!!... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs certainly cooled off at the surface next week. Mostly sleet down into northern MA. That's a nasty wedge on the soundings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Mostly sleet down into northern MA. That's a nasty wedge on the soundings So another salt event for me? Great....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs certainly cooled off at the surface next week. Trying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Ukie was a nice snow thump for pike region. GGEM was a pelletfest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, George001 said: The winter as a whole is likely beyond saving in SNE at this point but that doesn’t mean we can’t get a big storm in March. Hell, wasn’t 1996-1997 a ratter outside that big April blizzard? Even bad winters often have at least one big (12+) storm. Regardless, have to give credit where it’s due. Boston is at 8 inches of snow for the entire season and it’s mid Feb, and the seasonal average is in the mid 40s. The Pope was dead on with his winter forecast. I will certainly be keeping an eye on the geese next fall to clue me in on what to expect next winter. My winter forecast was a huge bust (again), but we live and learn. 1996-97 was above normal after the April fools blizzard which is an all timer. However, leading up to it snow was sub par but nothing like recent ratters like 2001-02, 2011-12, and this season so far. There was a nice snow in early December-like 4-7 or something which was supposed to be rain. A few days later inland areas got nailed (cantore famous thundersnow shot in ORH). ORH got 14 inches. January was generally pretty cold and we did get 7 inches from a system that was supposed to miss us early in the month. I remember xc skiing that day in the Arboretum. February was an absolute torch mainly snowless but mid March on was cold and snowy. So that season is a bad example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, apm said: Is it too much to ask for , say, ep19 to come to fruition? Thats going through detroit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: 1996-97 was above normal after the April fools blizzard which is an all timer. However, leading up to it snow was sub par but nothing like recent ratters like 2001-02, 2011-12, and this season so far. There was a nice snow in early December-like 4-7 or something which was supposed to be rain. A few days later inland areas got nailed (cantore famous thundersnow shot in ORH). ORH got 14 inches. January was generally pretty cold and we did get 7 inches from a system that was supposed to miss us early in the month. I remember xc skiing that day in the Arboretum. February was an absolute torch mainly snowless but mid March on was cold and snowy. So that season is a bad example. Yeah the weenie deformation snows from that low. I remember that Jan event. Had like 8-10” towards Brockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie was a nice snow thump for pike region. GGEM was a pelletfest Kevin loves these 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 12-15 on wunderground thru the 27th up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie was a nice snow thump for pike region. GGEM was a pelletfest Seems like you're standing in line sneak 'n' txting ... It may be tedious to mention still at 120+ range, but both the GFS and GGEM were a deg or two colder in the llv/wedging air mass. I also - personally - find it hard to believe that a 1030+mb robust +PP situated over W QUE, already dammed into the region prior to arrival of WAA burst ..., will ever yield at the sfc. It may be one of those scenarios where the lift escapes and runs off the region exposing a llv 900 to sfc icy layer. Skies brighten... but don't really clear. Rad looks like the warm front must've made it all the way to RUT-PWM or so... but it's really down along the L.I. S or even south of there. In general, I see two aspects evolving this week: 1 ... more suppression ( how much or little notwithstanding). 2 ... lower overall verification over present QPF ( again, how much or little - ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 2 ... lower overall verification over present QPF ( again, how much or little - ). Seems like CNE/NNE has higher qpf relative to SNE on models ..so wouldn’t a suppression being that higher QPF zone south ..even if it’s not as robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Weenie davis straight block on gfs with a WC ridge to boot. Patience. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weenie davis straight block on gfs with a WC ridge to boot. Patience. absolute monster block. wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Biggest barrier for many moving to NNE (who want to) is economic opportunity. Esp outside of the hubs like PWM/BTV and maybe you could include some of the southern NH towns like ASH/MHT/PSM. Though the increase in remote work maybe be helping some for those who want a new landscape. But remote work is very white collar so that isn’t an opportunity for everyone. But it still holds true that many just hate the cold up there too…lol. I def wouldn’t mind but so many other people I know who go up there to ski or vacation in the summer are always like “winters are too damned cold up here…I couldn’t live full time here”. I’d prob live in Rangeley in a bachelor pad if I wasn’t married. ASH is a Boston suburb at this point. Average home price like $500k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems like CNE/NNE has higher qpf relative to SNE on models ..so wouldn’t a suppression being that higher QPF zone south well... circumstantially, that would be true, ...but I'm speaking of 'farmer john's standard correction' for modeling at 120+hr range. I have not seen any graphics that out right compare empirical results to model prognostic values, relative to any time leads... but, anecdotally, I get a very strong impression that the error tends to increase in the ^ amts, farther out in time. I've been jokingly referring to this as 'model magnification' I think of it as when an system first appears at the outer boundary of the model distant times... it's like the moon coming over the horizon on the clear dusty summer evening. It's the size of a pie pan... - fun metaphor. But I think it's because the models don't "see" or detect the physical offsetting destructive interference minutia that are inevitably going to materialize, due to the fact that ultimately ...they don't really predict the future. Those emergent offsets cannot be predetermined - until the human brain trust finally does figure out how quantum mechanics identifies future events... But by then? they'll be controlling that space and along with it, how those events unfolds. Technologies like "the Weather Modification Net" ... and this sort of speculation will have long been a thing of the past. Rain and snow and temperature variance all happening by a carefully prescribed dosing by the technology. No more interesting anything - ... sign me up! Excluding that wild science fiction digression... what the models are left with in the D6 on range is a like 'purified' emergence that isn't being held back by "reality" at those time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weenie davis straight block on gfs with a WC ridge to boot. Patience. That’s what I’m going to say when my bills are running 3 months behind ..patience banks ..it will be all worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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