CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Yay blocking 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 20/8 for a low at DAW. About normal. No wind, full sun. Should be a nice day by mid Feb standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 12:56 PM, WinterWolf said: Just getting up…5 below and a gorgeous sunny morning here after a fresh foot plus yesterday. Buried here. Expand go go go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 GEFS seem less enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Congrats control member. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Expand Given this winters track record this will not materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:16 PM, Modfan2 said: Given this winters track record this will not materialize Expand Shift it north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 12:00 PM, MJO812 said: Expand "Easiest" winter ever...every winter forecast that called for some combination of normal/below normal temps and normal to above normal snowfall is in line to be amongst the worse seasonal forecast ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:18 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: "Easiest" winter ever...every winter forecast that called for some combination of normal/below normal temps and normal to above normal snowfall is in line to be amongst the worse seasonal forecast ever. Expand Truthfully I didn't see that many. Most went the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 About a 40° difference from yesterday. And it feels it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:18 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: "Easiest" winter ever...every winter forecast that called for some combination of normal/below normal temps and normal to above normal snowfall is in line to be amongst the worse seasonal forecast ever. Expand The baffling part for someone who works around tech everyday is how is the modeling so off or are we putting too much stock outside of 5 days? The cold snap two weeks ago was probably the best modeled event of the season. Does anyone track model consistency for each event to see which is closest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:21 PM, Modfan2 said: The baffling part for someone who works around tech everyday is how is the modeling so off or are we putting too much stock outside of 5 days? The cold snap two weeks ago was probably the best modeled event of the season. Does anyone track model consistency for each event to see which is closest? Expand What has been off? When you’re two weeks out, things can change a lot. I don’t recall much changing inside a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:08 PM, CoastalWx said: Yay blocking Expand SE ridge hooking up with NAO on all ensembles after day 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:21 PM, Modfan2 said: The baffling part for someone who works around tech everyday is how is the modeling so off or are we putting too much stock outside of 5 days? The cold snap two weeks ago was probably the best modeled event of the season. Does anyone track model consistency for each event to see which is closest? Expand I's been a" bad" winter for the " the pattern looks much better in 10-14 days" crowd.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/17/2023 at 2:19 PM, brooklynwx99 said: I don’t think it’s impossible, but the GEFS indies show that if a legit -NAO develops, it is far more likely that it forces the typical 50/50 response rather than a full latitude ridge therefore, I’ll keep it in the back of my mind, but I’m not gonna say it’s likely or anything Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 12:00 PM, MJO812 said: Expand 9” at BDL? Did I sleep thru a storm or something? More like 4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:28 PM, DJln491 said: 9” at BDL? Did I sleep thru a storm or something? More like 4” Expand BDL got 6.3 that storm and there were several tenths to an inch type of events that added up after that to 9.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:28 PM, DJln491 said: 9” at BDL? Did I sleep thru a storm or something? More like 4” Expand You slept. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 12:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: All 3 of them look very iffy in SNE. Wouldn’t take much to see all 3 mainly non frozen . Still seems to be like a NNE pattern overall I don’t know about all 3 being rain in SNE, south of there? Absolutely. IMO, all 3 are going to turn into New England frozen events with primarily all rain south of there. The GFS cold bias is ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 There is a shot some areas may go on a bit of a run during the next 2-3 weeks. As usual, latitude will matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:34 PM, snowman19 said: I don’t know about all 3 being rain in SNE, south of there? Absolutely. IMO, all 3 are going to turn into New England frozen events with primarily all rain south of there. The GFS cold bias is ridiculous Expand Cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 12:26 PM, CoastalWx said: Ray just meant his forecast was for nrn ME. Expand January was poor tempwise. I'm happy with December and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: January was poor tempwise. I'm happy with December and and February. Expand I’m thrilled too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:28 PM, DJln491 said: 9” at BDL? Did I sleep thru a storm or something? More like 4” Expand Beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:31 PM, The 4 Seasons said: BDL got 6.3 that storm and there were several tenths to an inch type of events that added up after that to 9.4 Expand Melted away so fast I guess I forgot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Beer? Expand Probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:35 PM, CoastalWx said: I’m thrilled too. Expand I just mean they went as expected. I figured we would have scored some snowfall in December, but the pattern showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I think la nina shifting more west may have played a role..it was east based all fall, then there was an abrupt shift in December...may have helped set up the January blood bath. I didn't expect that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 1:35 PM, CoastalWx said: Cold bias?Cold bias as in the GFS is too far south. It will end up correcting north just like it did for the middle of this upcoming week. It had snow in DC and Baltimore in earlier runs. It has done this I don’t know how many times already this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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