STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: are You tracking my gerbil shipment TMI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Absolutely pounding sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: At some point you’ve got to just admit the winter was a bust. The winter, all the forecasts etc. Continuing to post that things look snowy and confidence of snowy outcomes becomes like the fabled boy who cried wolf. There’s nothing more I’d like than a few snowstorms, but I think that is very unlikely outside of NNE. That’s my opinion and take based on what I see. You and Luke could of course be right I could be wrong, too....but the inverse of the boy who cried wolf is persistence forecasting going astray. The best option is to just make an informed call and I feel as though I have done that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At some point you’ve got to just admit the winter was a bust. The winter, all the forecasts etc. Continuing to post that things look snowy and confidence of snowy outcomes becomes like the fabled boy who cried wolf. There’s nothing more I’d like than a few snowstorms, but I think that is very unlikely outside of NNE. That’s my opinion and take based on what I see. You and Luke could of course be right The winter sucked no doubt but you have to break out of it and forecast what’s in front of you. We’re not in the all in phase yet but if you can’t keep an open mind to favorable cross guidance support, you’ll lose more than you’ll ‘win’ by remaining too stubborn to change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could be wrong, too....but the inverse of the boy who cried wolf is persistence forecasting going astray. The best option is to just make an informed call and I feel as though I have done that. No qualms with that . All sides have laid out their reasoning. Some will be right and some wrong . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t remember it, what happened? Lots of cold rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At some point you’ve got to just admit the winter was a bust. The winter, all the forecasts etc. Continuing to post that things look snowy and confidence of snowy outcomes becomes like the fabled boy who cried wolf. There’s nothing more I’d like than a few snowstorms, but I think that is very unlikely outside of NNE. That’s my opinion and take based on what I see. You and Luke could of course be right Boy who cried wolf. I was just thinking that the other day. Or Lucy pulling the football out from Charlie Brown. I conceded to futile mid January and am sticking to that. Currently 37 and sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of cold rain lol. At least we had some 70s that month too. The worst would be like a march 2014. Frigid but mostly cold rain when the precip does come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Ha 'cept, I don't think anyone remotely cogent has proclaimed aspects as looking encouragingly snowy, or whatever. What was said by many is that patterning may improve - folks tend to do that... They hit hyper drive on that kind of thing, then it turns into a d-drip let down when the 'odds' don't play out. And it's annoying too, because they construct their memories around that accelerated interpretation.. Anyway, the pattern this next week is actually horrible for snow. It is... Let's get that straight. What we have, or is modeled rather ..., is a PV anomaly setting over top said horrible pattern. That changes the landscape a little, and what we're seeing in the operational runs is tug-o-war along the axis between those two titanic forces. Subtle oscillations N or S scaffolds where confluence will build sfc high... as well as guide alone where that wind torpedo rides over the ridge... Typically we don't really talk snow when a S/W curves west of ORD ...rides along the border, then cuts ESE through central NE - that's the S/W trajectory in the means wrt to late next week... It's all about where the slope of cold wedge ends up in the lower troposphere... Very precarious. Yeah...that is a giant hunk of shit pattern actually... It just happens to be one that is setting up a polished option... Probably? it's more like to be an IP/ice event with a narrow stripe of snow astride... But, I also wonder if the S/W is also going to start showing up weaker in future guidance - the old magnification correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The winter sucked no doubt but you have to break out of it and forecast what’s in front of you. We’re not in the all in phase yet but if you can’t keep an open mind to favorable cross guidance support, you’ll lose more than you’ll ‘win’ by remaining too stubborn to change. Hey.. if I thought things looked great and the pattern was changing , I’d be on your boat . I just see the same gradient pattern , blocking that probably won’t happen , and a constant-PNA. I think the differences lie in that you believe the members that show the block. I do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of cold rain lol. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Looks like a little clipper next weekend. Haven't seen one those in awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least we had some 70s that month too. The worst would be like a march 2014. Frigid but mostly cold rain when the precip does come. Ya that combo is PITA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hey.. if I thought things looked great and the pattern was changing , I’d be on your boat . I just see the same gradient pattern , blocking that probably won’t happen , and a constant-PNA. I think the differences lie in that you believe the members that show the block. I do not Yea. I’m not that worried about a -pna, it’s more about the atlantic now. We’ve had good stretches and big snowers with a -pna/-nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We are tossing weenies tonite 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This clip has to be fetish clip from porn hub. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: This clip has to be fetish clip from porn hub. Ha, Sounds like you're very familiar with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Ha, Sounds like you're very familiar with that. I thought that was taken from one of the Worcester GTG’s 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Sleet now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 Good luck figuring out the upcoming pattern with any certainty. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Front is thru here now, Looks like we got 0.2" of snow, Temps are dropping too down to 28°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sleet now Some post frontal action. Flow has slowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Sleet at 40* per my cheap Taylor in Newtonville.Wasn't expecting that.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 33.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 44F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 28 here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Snowy evening here but not sticking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Same here... Crews heading out to treat given still wet roads and temps crashing into the upper 20's. Normally drying wins out but only takes is one icy curve for an ugly crash. Stafford heading out to treat soon, as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 In New Haven. According to my phone it’s 37 degrees. Some flakes flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The winter sucked no doubt but you have to break out of it and forecast what’s in front of you. We’re not in the all in phase yet but if you can’t keep an open mind to favorable cross guidance support, you’ll lose more than you’ll ‘win’ by remaining too stubborn to change. The forum gets to be almost like sports team divided… like forecasting is a team sport. No matter what guidance shows, if one has already picked a side of team to be a fan of, it’s not going to move the needle. The “yeah I know it shows this but I don’t believe it” type stuff is like why even look or discuss the models? If you only believe what you want to see and disbelieve everything else, then might as well just log off and do another hobby, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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