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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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hm...  i remember a system like this one ( modeled) much earlier this cold season... It started out cold, and then trended N ... then, came back S colder - similar time ranges.   But then ended up N in the end anyway. 

It really - from what I am seeing - is coming down to the PV position and how it integrates with the surrounding hemisphere toward the end of the week.  If it and the integral is further N, the boundary and the rippling wave conduit ends up between Flint and western ME ...if it's all S by almost imperceptible amounts, it's an IND-NYC axis. 

This is may wobble up and down for several days ...

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

But of a warm fail here today. A lot of guidance had low 60s. 57 here. 

are the geese pooping on your head?

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

At this time and in this setup, it is all about how the block retrogrades... if it diverts a bit southwest, colder/snowier/icier trends would win out.  One way or the other, I think the next 2 model runs will start locking on to the final outcome with regards to the block.  Not a lot of wiggle room given southeast ridge & -PNA so will need to block to make it all happen?

I like the if followed by the ?

so you are 100% sure on how this is going to play out. Noted.

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40 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Nice thunderstorm this morning.  Temperature is now up to 43F.  CF shortly

I'm going to post this in the general obs thread too.

Wow, I am amazed how much colder I have been compared to places like Concord NH which is only 35 miles south of me.  Boston is 100 miles away but the climate is so much warmer down there.  I retain snow cover  well and CAD always seems to overperform.  I just realized that I have not hit 50F yet this year!  Some close calls this week but surely not the spring weather so close by.  I know there are a lot of frustrated snow lovers but a salt free roads and bare ground would be nice to see.  My acreage faces south and finally we are getting some bare ground but everyplace around me is still snow covered.  This snow is so durable.  Below if a graph of my temps so far this year.  Guess I'm going to have to wait for my first 50F!

graph.jpg

snow.jpg

Truly jealous, winter despite the non winter for most even just south of you as you point out. I would genuinely love to live up there. 

One day, perhaps. I have my retirement sights on moving to NNE. Been slowly warming my wife up to the idea. I’ve gotten her more and more into winter hiking in snowcover (we travel often). 

Enjoy what many others have been lacking this winter!

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3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I swear, you must have fallen on your head somewhere and never recovered fully ... lol

You mean to tell me you wouldn't care if we had an intense ice storm which would break or kill trees and bushes, bring down wires, possibly do damage to homes... 

I will send it all to your house. You can have all of that. I'll take snow and I'll take sleet.. I do not want ice

He has a damaging ice storm fetish. One where a tree sits in his living room, he loses power for a week, the wife and kids stay at his in laws…so he can drink IPA’s alone, in the dark, and around the clock until he passes out in a drunken jubilated state. 
 

Strange but it’s real.

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1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Truly jealous, winter despite the non winter for most even just south of you as you point out. I would genuinely love to live up there. 

One day, perhaps. I have my retirement sights on moving to NNE. Been slowly warming my wife up to the idea. I’ve gotten her more and more into winter hiking in snowcover (we travel often). 

Enjoy what many others have been lacking this winter!

The biggest problem is normal people hate the cold winters in NNE. Only sickos like us love it. So when you try to convince significant others to move there, you are starting from a disadvantage. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest problem is normal people hate the cold winters in NNE. Only sickos like us love it. So when you try to convince significant others to move there, you are starting from a disadvantage. 

Absolutely spot on. I genuinely fetishize cold and snow. Living where I am now, the goods come quite a bit rarer than for most of you, though occasionally I partake in the big ones with you. 1/29/22 brought me 16 inches before it clobbered many of you, and I was genuinely up early just hanging out in it outside, savoring every flake falling at a perfect 22f. 

We do enjoy winter hiking, was just in Northern interior Iceland for two weeks this past November and the snowpack there in certain spots was just mindblowingly awesome. 

We’re looking to move into either northwestern Nj, the lower HV, or the Danbury area of CT within the next couple years. Good first steps, have to stay generally in this area for now for several reasons. But in the future? All bets are off and I’ve made my intentions clear that I want to keep moving north, and well we’re still married so that’s a good sign! :lol:

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He has a damaging ice storm fetish. One where a tree sits in his living room, he loses power for a week, the wife and kids stay at his in laws…so he can drink IPA’s alone, in the dark, and around the clock until he passes out in a drunken jubilated state. 
 

Strange but it’s real.

There’s a ton of people here that love ice storms . Just because you’re getting baked in a hookah lounge every night tracking faux snowstorms in a record futile winter doesn’t mean folks can’t enjoy ice 

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe ebb and flow, but nicer EPS. A bit weaker on the -PNA overall. 

 

Get me to next week with an event that is not rains to Jackman Maines...and then I may get interested. 

That transient ridging in the Rockies showing up around Feb 28-Mar 1 is pretty good to see. Some may recall that’s a date that has been showing up in clown range…but seeing some larger scale support in the longwave pattern for something on the ensemble mean is always a positive. If we’re gonna try and sneak in a larger event (like double digits), then that is what you’ll need…some transient ridging out there with the 50/50 minimum in place, a shortwave enters …and boom. 
 

Hopefully we’re still talking about it next week. 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a ton of people here that love ice storms . Just because you’re getting baked in a hookah lounge every night tracking faux snowstorms in a record futile winter doesn’t mean folks can’t enjoy ice 

I love em as well . 

it’s like when people root for hurricanes , we can’t steer em

But I am disturbed 

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bit of a warm fail here today. A lot of guidance had low 60s. 57 here. 

Crazy gradient across New England from here to there.  Jealous to be honest. Biting wind in the teens while soaked snowpack turns to glare ice with a dusting blowing around on it… sort of likes the warmer temps, ha.

19347565-84EB-4E8A-A6C0-A0A9AE09EA47.gif.b84cd4d34c969ab64d3113729e9d5eb4.gif

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27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Absolutely spot on. I genuinely fetishize cold and snow. Living where I am now, the goods come quite a bit rarer than for most of you, though occasionally I partake in the big ones with you. 1/29/22 brought me 16 inches before it clobbered many of you, and I was genuinely up early just hanging out in it outside, savoring every flake falling at a perfect 22f. 

We do enjoy winter hiking, was just in Northern interior Iceland for two weeks this past November and the snowpack there in certain spots was just mindblowingly awesome. 

We’re looking to move into either northwestern Nj, the lower HV, or the Danbury area of CT within the next couple years. Good first steps, have to stay generally in this area for now for several reasons. But in the future? All bets are off and I’ve made my intentions clear that I want to keep moving north, and well we’re still married so that’s a good sign! :lol:

Heh... if you're chasing winters... might wanna take note of the climate migration trend and rate of change before committing to a 20 year mortgage.   Get all signed on the dotted lines and lubed up and excited for winters like this ?  ooh sign us up

 

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest problem is normal people hate the cold winters in NNE. Only sickos like us love it. So when you try to convince significant others to move there, you are starting from a disadvantage. 

You only take the significant other to visit in the summer Before buying (unless they are a skier) and never during an arctic blast or a frigid April day . You talk up the relaxation , the views , the local eatery’s (assuming your not moving to a hut in the middle of nowhere ) .

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33 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Absolutely spot on. I genuinely fetishize cold and snow. Living where I am now, the goods come quite a bit rarer than for most of you, though occasionally I partake in the big ones with you. 1/29/22 brought me 16 inches before it clobbered many of you, and I was genuinely up early just hanging out in it outside, savoring every flake falling at a perfect 22f. 

We do enjoy winter hiking, was just in Northern interior Iceland for two weeks this past November and the snowpack there in certain spots was just mindblowingly awesome. 

We’re looking to move into either northwestern Nj, the lower HV, or the Danbury area of CT within the next couple years. Good first steps, have to stay generally in this area for now for several reasons. But in the future? All bets are off and I’ve made my intentions clear that I want to keep moving north, and well we’re still married so that’s a good sign! :lol:

The problem I when you’re old you need healthcare much more frequently.  Resources are more limited in NNE.  Unless you are in VT where it is more plentiful.  Just go there as often as you can in summer and tell your so that the wx is great there all year.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... if you're chasing winters... might wanna take note of the climate migration trend and rate of change before committing to a 20 year mortgage.   Get all signed on the dotted lines and lubed up and excited for winters like this ?  ooh sign us up

 

Duly noted friend, but still an improvement upon my current location. Have been planning to move for years and not just solely for climate reasons. But with the wifey on board, north we go! 

I’m also hedging against the upward creep of the southern inferno. Good lord has it been getting insufferable here in the summer time with heat and dews for days and days and days. Even a few degrees is an improvement, so I’ll take it! Where do I sign? Hehe. 

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On the subject of warmth; is it true that CFa Humid Subtropical climate zoning has reached the Cape and even as far north as Boston along the immediate Mass coastline? I saw some suggestion those locations have begun to surpass the 32F coldest month average for the CFa / DFa (Humid Continental) cutoff. I’ve even seen maps reflecting this. If so, that’s absolutely bewildering. Of course it also depends on the year / season, and I’m not sure how many years get factored into when they make these adjustments / shifts for various locations. Of course this winter many DFa locations would surpass criteria for CFa, but wouldn’t be shifted off a single year.

I clearly recall quite a while ago when I first learned of the Koppen climate classification system (perhaps 15-20 years ago?) that CFa only extended into extreme southern NJ (Cape May) and certainly not up to NYC. Now I’ve read the whole lower HV technically qualifies in addition to Boston (again, if true which is why I’m asking). 

Wild. 

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