40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is a late-bloom Miller B pattern..... For those who are confused enough to use peepers as a means of long range forecasting, take a look st Feb 1969 H5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Best storms of the year? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It probably hugs and crushes WNE. Nah. It has a nw to se trajectory actually. Not worth much but the possibility is there given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For those who are confused enough to use peepers as a means of long range forecasting, take a look st Feb 1969 H5. Its painfully obvious analogs do not work . This winter is a great example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Its painfully obvious analogs do not work . This winter is a great example. I'm not using it as an analog...I'm just trying to explain what a late-blooming Miller B pattern looks like. I'm pretty happy with my Feb 2018 analog this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not using it as an analog...I'm just trying to explain what a late-blooming Miller B pattern looks like. I'm pretty happy with my Feb 2018 analog this month. That was also a record warm Feb and snowless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s just something to watch. If we lose any confluence it’s over. There is no stopping the tendencies out west. I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 I'm so confused about this weather pattern. There's been so much talk of change which hasn't come about. The forecast for next week. Keep flip-flopping back and forth. It's just hard to know what's actually going to happen in latter part of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was also a record warm Feb and snowless? It had one moderate snow event, but it was very warm with a SSW within 5 days of this one. There was an 80 degree day in SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine I'm thinking more the longevity. Initially we'll have the confluence as it sets up. But seems like the EPS mean kind of loses some of that towards the end. Again, something to watch, but I'm not enthusiastic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine The block is coming IMO...two ways we can get porked. Some flukey crap with the PV, like December, or more likely via compression between the block and any RNA derived se ridging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Even the thunderstorms are north! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 This pattern might match 2018 a bit more vs 1956. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This pattern might match 2018 a bit more vs 1956. I haven't assessed it too much, but why do you say that? The very warm February? I think 1956 had more of an RNA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't assessed it too much, but why do you say that? The very warm February? I think 1956 had more of an RNA... I meant March. The March look seems closer to the ensembles and weeklies vs 1956. Even taking into account that 1956 on the reanalysis will show blue anomalies everywhere because it was colder back then...still seems 2018 might be a closer match. Edit week 3 on weeklies has some semblance of 56 too. I guess I need the caveat that in no way do I expect the outcome of those years lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I meant March. The March look seems closer to the ensembles and weeklies vs 1956. Even taking into account that 1956 on the reanalysis will show blue anomalies everywhere because it was colder back then...still seems 2018 might be a closer match. Edit week 3 on weeklies has some semblance of 56 too. I guess I need the caveat that in no way do I expect the outcome of those years lol. I would view 1956 on the site that allows you to use 1951-2010 was a base climo period. That outcome is possible IMO...but yea, it's always dangerous to expect it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The block is coming IMO...two ways we can get porked. Some flukey crap with the PV, like December, or more likely via compression between the block and any RNA derived se ridging. i think it’s harder to see the -PNA screw things up than in December due to the shorter wavelengths March 2018 had a pretty deep -PNA but the block worked its magic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine kinda odd its not a concern of yours given the depth of the WC trough, SE ridge has been under modeled in the extended all winter. I would say the main concern is any blocking that does develop actually moves too far south like we saw in Jan and links up with the SE ridge for a mega ridge. Having the MJO try and fail repeatedly in phase 8 just reinforces this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: kinda odd its not a concern of yours given the depth of the WC trough, SE ridge has been under modeled in the extended all winter. I would say the main concern is any blocking that does develop actually moves too far south like we saw in Jan and links up with the SE ridge for a mega ridge. Having the MJO try and fail repeatedly in phase 8 just reinforces this idea. Not every pattern is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i think it’s harder to see the -PNA screw things up than in December due to the shorter wavelengths March 2018 had a pretty deep -PNA but the block worked its magic Yes but you can see higher heights over Alaska and western Canada in March 2018 If you're just relying on the -NAO then that could easily link with the SE ridge under a strong RNA pattern. This is not a 2018 look. SE ridge would likely correct stronger. At best you can get a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 The -PNA will be pretty deep to start off. Take those March 2018 anomalies and twist that and deepen it over the West Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes but you can see higher heights over Alaska and western Canada in March 2018 If you're just relying on the -NAO then that could easily link with the SE ridge under a strong RNA pattern. This is not a 2018 look. SE ridge would likely correct stronger i know, I’m not making a direct comparison, just stating that I don’t think a -PNA would be that big of a deal this late in the year if we get a legit block to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: kinda odd its not a concern of yours given the depth of the WC trough, SE ridge has been under modeled in the extended all winter. I would say the main concern is any blocking that does develop actually moves too far south like we saw in Jan and links up with the SE ridge for a mega ridge. Having the MJO try and fail repeatedly in phase 8 just reinforces this idea. I don’t think it’s impossible, but the GEFS indies show that if a legit -NAO develops, it is far more likely that it forces the typical 50/50 response rather than a full latitude ridge therefore, I’ll keep it in the back of my mind, but I’m not gonna say it’s likely or anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The -PNA will be pretty deep to start off. Take those March 2018 anomalies and twist that and deepen it over the West Coast. Yes. This is why I liked 1956 more than 2018...not that we are necessarily getting 50". Just as one vs the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. This is why I liked 1956 more than 2018...not that we are getting 50". Just as one vs the other. Do you have a composite map of March 1956 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Pouring. 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Do you have a composite map of March 1956 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It would be better to use 1951-2010 as a base period, but I would need to look up the link for that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Pouring. 36F Enjoy the acid rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 We can agree to disagree, Scott...but 1956 is a better match IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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