Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 I remember when December looked like that… until it didn’t . 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is funny how nature knows and gives signals . When the peepers (or poopers) come out.. it is natures signal that winter is over.. regardless of what the latest weeklies run says . They’re not going to come out knowing a frigid , snowy period is coming . It’s pretty simple to see what’s coming that's not how it works. peepers have brains the size of the head of a pin. they can't see anything coming. But what happens is they come out when the ice melts and the water/mud warms up a bit. nothing predictive about that. I have had peepers in my yard come out only to have more snow and cold-it happens almost every year. they don't know shit. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s started abruptly So definitely not heat island. Not that it doesn’t have an influence, but it was an abrupt change. MADIS would catch all of that too…because it’s not that BOS might be warmer than some surrounding mesonets, it’s that the delta between them abruptly got much wider. So if the baseline is usually like BOS +1, it went to BOS +4 within like a month or or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 49 overnight at orh is the warmest low ever recorded in the month of February. But skewed if that site is running warm Won't matter when it's 20 just before midnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Jeepers peepers that's a ton of bullshit Kevin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I remember when December looked like that… until it didn’t . You go with your jeepers creepers visions of March 12 then. GL to ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z gfs, oh how we pray. I've been targeting 2/28 for three weeks now....looks like I'll miss by one day, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: that's not how it works. peepers have brains the size of the head of a pin. they can't see anything coming. But what happens is they come out when the ice melts and the water/mud warms up a bit. nothing predictive about that. I have had peepers in my yard come out only to have more snow and cold-it happens almost every year. they don't know shit. Ha that was what I was trying to say last night. They are a result of past environmental conditions, not a predictor of future conditions. Most things are like that. Flowers come up because it’s been warm enough to get the soil temp up, not that the flowers know it won’t get cold again, ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 As though this were late March ... huge bust potential late next week. The 00z Euro and GFS on either side of the low level cold wedge - although the GFS' attempt at a meso low in the bay (00z) is at least a nod to the notion of some damming... Those two solutions for that mess are pretty wildly disparate over all. Then the 06z GFS comes out with a southward correction ...not quite as far as the Euro's ice storm implication ( with 2" of IP from RUT to MHT), but significant enough to consider... Very complex scenario unfolds where you have two higher confidence major factors controlling, but the type of weather that occurs between them is compressed into a very narrow conduit separate their two different worlds. Those two features are the SPV that's over James Bay ( down to 480 dm!), and the -PNA(SE ridge). They're leaning on each other and imperceptible oscillations in that sumo shoving match means 61 F or 31F across maybe 70 mi, from N OH to S NH as a mean axis between the Euro and GFS ( blended guess). There are competing 'correction vectors' in this...but I still tend to lean colder due to many decades of experiencing late winter and spring cold loading across SE Canada. I don't have formal numbers but a pig load of experience ...the cold wins ( usually..). I was mentioning to John last night that I suspected the 12z Euro solution yesterday was about as far N as this mess could ultimately get before being forced east. The PV acts like an inverted block.. The 00z coming in suppressed seems to odd in favor of cold winning. If the ridge needs to win out that much...it's less likely to mean big snow event up the St Lar...and more likely to mean this shears to lower impact in general... Cold winning doesn't have to mean snow/mix/ice..., but I'm not sure I'm buying 60 intrusion to ALB like some of the recent cycles of the GFS was selling.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We don’t know but they replaced the sensor and it fixed the error. So it was something with the old sensor but not sure what. Just a simple case of Shit The Bed then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 damn, this is the strongest we’ve seen the -NAO yet. some members likely have a legit west-based block here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z gfs, oh how we pray. Share for those less fortunate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: damn, this is the strongest we’ve seen the -NAO yet. some members likely have a legit west-based block here Heights start rising over the SE and we sort of lose the 50/50 near the end. We need that to stay. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sorry bruh, been there too many times…best wishes to you guys on the other side. 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Shit man sorry to hear. Thanks...Its gonna be a rough couple months, hard to watch the kids go through it on top of it. Way too young, not even 7 years old yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Lets get the 6z gfs for Ray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heights start rising over the SE and we sort of lose the 50/50 near the end. We need that to stay. CAPE had a great post showing how the Aleutian Ridge has been static all season, creating the static RNA and SE ridge. Has to be La Nina driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heights start rising over the SE and we sort of lose the 50/50 near the end. We need that to stay. I’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get the 6z gfs for Jay. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 around half of the members do have a SE ridge, but this is mainly from a lack of blocking, and this is making it look like we’d have more of a SE ridge than we would if we had a legit block if we end up getting one, we’d likely see the typical response from it, not a SE ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get the 6z gfs for Ray. I didn’t look, but I assume it fringes him for whatever threat it’s showing for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I remember when December looked like that… until it didn’t . It actually did...it just didn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Just a simple case of Shit The Bed then... Yep. I’m guessing that’s what happened with ORH too but they prob won’t replace it until it’s at least 3F too warm. Right now it’s kind of somewhere around 2F to 3F. We discussed earlier in the cold shot thread, but the margin they give these things is obscene….2F in either direction. That sounds like insanity to me for a first order climate site, but here we are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It actually did...it just didn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: that would literally spit out a KU 75% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block It’s just something to watch. If we lose any confluence it’s over. There is no stopping the tendencies out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: damn, this is the strongest we’ve seen the -NAO yet. some members likely have a legit west-based block here That is a late-bloom Miller B pattern..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get the 6z gfs for Ray. Been a few of those runs lately from what I have read on here...I'm not looking yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Share for those less fortunate? It’s a big long duration snower for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I didn’t look, but I assume it fringes him for whatever threat it’s showing for now? It probably hugs and crushes WNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 We thundah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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