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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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5 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I just saw the oddest thing. I just so happened to flip through the three  different stations here in Connecticut for the weather. Both WTNH and WVIT are calling for temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s from next Wednesday on. They both show chances of mix or snow and/or rain... something wintry. Wfsb however Shows temperatures next Thursday at 60? Something seems off. It just seems way odd like they're almost taking this week and putting it into next week. I almost feel like they made a mistake lol

tbh, it seems more odd caring and worrying about such a thing in the first place, especially those garbage tv outlets forecasts (sorry ct rain),  

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26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

tbh, it seems more odd caring and worrying about such a thing in the first place, especially those garbage tv outlets forecasts (sorry ct rain),  

First of all man, I'm not neurotic myself. Secondly, what's up with your holier than thou attitude. . I just made an observation of what I saw. Listen man, come down off your " hot " seat. Lol.  

Plus, kind of rude the comments you're saying about these guys that I was referring to. They're not a run of a mill weather enthusiasts. Not sure why you think your word is "God " so to speak.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This was advertised as a back door 12 hrs ago, across guidance. Warm sector now makes it to PWM.

Worst offenders were the NAM and HRRR. RGEM and Euro handled it best i.e. baited least. 

 

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When did you become such a warmanista? It'll stop at Tilton, but I'm certainly cooked. I think ice fishing season finally over down here. 

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6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

When did you become such a warmanista? It'll stop at Tilton, but I'm certainly cooked. I think ice fishing season finally over down here. 

Don’t shoot the messenger. As for forecasting I just try to call what it’s likely to be. I think those with good track records this season may *seem* biased warm. It’s just been really effin’ warm…. And they have been consistently right. 

As for my personal inclinations, if it’s  gonna be warm I’m gonna vibe with it. Can’t control it, might as well embrace it. 

Coming into second half of Feb, with zero pack, I’m at the stage of winter where it’s a big snowstorm or I’d prefer warm.

 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

How many sites do we have “running warm” in New England.

I heard this, this season for BED, DAW, HFD, now ORH?! 

 I smell BS.

ORH is def running warm. Its not BS. It’s really obvious just looking casually at mesonets but MADIS confirms it is running about 2-3F too warm. I hadn’t heard anything about the others but it’s possible. BOS was a really bad offender in 2019 before it was corrected. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is def running warm. Its not BS. It’s really obvious just looking casually at mesonets but MADIS confirms it is running about 2-3F too warm. I hadn’t heard anything about the others but it’s possible. BOS was a really bad offender in 2019 before it was corrected. 

What was the cause of BOS running too warm? 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is def running warm. Its not BS. It’s really obvious just looking casually at mesonets but MADIS confirms it is running about 2-3F too warm. I hadn’t heard anything about the others but it’s possible. BOS was a really bad offender in 2019 before it was corrected. 

Yeah, orh had the same temp as Bos which is definitely odd 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We don’t officially know. It sounded like a sensor just went adrift. But it was so obvious. They were getting accumulating snow at 33-34F. ZR at 33-34F. Dense fog with T-Td spreads of 3F etc.

Any chance it could be a sort of heat island effect, picking up heat from it's surrounding surfaces but not reflecting the true temp of the area?

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7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Any chance it could be a sort of heat island effect, picking up heat from it's surrounding surfaces but not reflecting the true temp of the area?

It’s started abruptly So definitely not heat island. Not that it doesn’t have an influence, but it was an abrupt change. 

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3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That would be a fine thing... it's only how many days out? :lol: And the 23rd looks so painfully close to something better if we had a little more help from Canada

23rd looks cooked. Was always a bonus anyway. The great look comes after as nao ridging develops and 50/50 gets pinned underneath. 

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