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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let me break it down for the layman(you?) .. MJO and Indian Ocean in warm flux.. warm Europe equates to warm E NA, troughing from Hawaii into West coast digging for gold into Mexico, no blocking .. and a very strong SE Ridge over the western Atlantic.. 

What about any of that makes you think snow and cold in the east? 
 

I will give you Canada is cold . So there is that.. but how do we tap into it for lots of snow and cold ?

Touché, well played with the warm flux in the Indian Ocean.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be interested in a formal study of how so many EPO ridges this year folded over and caused monstrously deep troughs that went offshore in S CAL.....typical La Ninas have Aleutian ridges and west coast troughing, but we've often cleaned up in those patterns anyway as long as the Aleutian ridge was fairly poleward.....we've had poleward aleutian ridges many times this winter but almost every single time, the downstream trough buckled back southwest about 2 standard deviations from what we typically see in that type of pattern....was it coincidence? Probably not...there was something forcing it...but what? I doubt tropical forcing can explain all of it.

 

I'd imagine probably the fact there has been ridging in the 50/50 region and not lower heights like is typical is why

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

What are you religious or something?

The perfect day is usually started by clearing out the plumbing and having a wake and bake. After achieving a moderate high it's best to pop a gummy or eat a choc cannabis bar. If that's not enough, go to the shroom chocolate bars. That will set you straight. Just rinse and repeat every day of the week, the weather pattern won't get to you. 

You'll probably get a DUI, wreck less endangerment etc, maybe become an emotionally disturbed person, but you will forget about the snow less winter. 

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

There are chances though.  Similar gradient pattern though to most of the winter.

1E503B2E-B836-4B8B-B21D-1C15C8521A05.thumb.png.6479b46d15a9417a0a70a7e45cbcab7d.png
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11 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

That’ll work for ski areas but that same map at this timeframe has ended up in Mt. Tremblant all winter. Thus the skepticism when applying the seasonal bias. 

 

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We talked about it a lot back then, the gradient sinking south.  The Tremblant snows were when the gradient was tickling us up here.  Like 5-8” at MVL over 10 days usually ended northward.

 

Had to circle back to this interaction this morning… ha, now the afternoon EURO was exactly what I was thinking of when I wrote the bolded.  Tickle MVL with 8” over 10 days is congrats Temblant.  We need that gradient down around RT 2 this season to score nicely.  

9F30A565-72AB-4616-B911-81C17F8BD25F.thumb.png.b2c5be76eebf2cab403ee150b07d2a88.png

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10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Feb 2021 redux and then another blizzard immediately after. the weeniest of weenie runs lmao

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1676570400-1677564000-1677758400-20.thumb.gif.9fa34b29d0be4dad1a7f1f8b9cf1f6d3.gifgfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-7952800.thumb.png.3c83a19648052eabf9afeab88a7cdf5f.png

Yes sirrr…we have ens showing a favorable h5 pattern the weeklies detected and now we’re getting an op to  start sniffing it out. It’s trickling down. Long ways to go, the usual caveats apply…so we’ll keep grinding it out.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes sirrr…we have ens showing a favorable h5 pattern the weeklies detected and now we’re getting an op to  start sniffing it out. Long ways to go, the usual caveats apply…but we’ll keep grinding to get there.

Just give us one big dog and call it a season. I’ll even go feed some geese if it helps. 
 

 

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