Great Snow 1717 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 68F at BDR breaks the all-time February record set back in... no surprise... 2022. it stood the test of time! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also cool that all the occurrences have been in La Nina....the warm February idea from La Nina isn't just urban legend. Yea. Sustained multi year nina with a splash of CC….and here we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Clouds destroyed our run at 70. Kind of a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Sustained multi year nina with a splash of CC….and here we are. I can't even tell you how hard I'm pulling for this to pan out just obliterate the Nina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm out on 2/23 until/unless we see this giving decent snows into at least southern part of SNE....but preferably trying to give snows into NYC too, because these tend to bump back north inside of 3-4 days. We’ll get an idea on the potential cold press in the next few days I think which would hopefully allow for more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Clouds destroyed our run at 70. Kind of a shame. Topped out at 61 here and now back down to 59 with overcast. Still amazing outside though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I can't even tell you how hard I'm pulling for this to pan out just obliterate the Nina Agree. It needs to be shot into space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I can't even tell you how hard I'm pulling for this to pan out just obliterate the Nina Seeing a huge west coast ridge next season will feel like seeing Bald Eagle in the wild in the 1980s after this season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 52 minutes ago, BrianW said: At least they got their record in. Yes indeed... although that may be one of the shortest record setting time periods of a high temp I've seen with a 13 degree crash shortly thereafter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 GEFS show that as long as there isn't a ludicrously deep trough out west that things wouldn't be so bad after the 24th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: GEFS show that as long as there isn't a ludicrously deep trough out west that things wouldn't be so bad after the 24th The East-based -NAO is critical too....if that goes poof, then we're likely done. But it's been pretty consistent so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm out on 2/23 until/unless we see this giving decent snows into at least southern part of SNE....but preferably trying to give snows into NYC too, because these tend to bump back north inside of 3-4 days. yeah... plug pulled over here, too... I feel partially responsible for bringing that period of time to light, as I was first to mention we should monitor it as far as I know of - about 5 days ago or whenever that was. The problem is, there is a tendency to conflate the mere philosophy discussion of what is out there in both the models, but also what could emerge in time ... etc, with an actual forecast. Those two are two different things. I mean, do people think NWS employees sit around between model runs and communicate like text off a weather bureau telegraph .. no they hash shit out. What needs to happens here, take away there, and the plausibility of those aspects taking place...etc..etc... I guess shut down the site until it's actually snowing out ...but then, the users aren't getting their d-drip dosing, are they heh. Anyway, the period has storminess rippling through the flow, and right now it's too far N. it is what it is... but the signal recognition was on point. Having said all that... I was also careful to point out all along that the there's no real telecon support for it. It was a 'sub-index' scaled recognition effort. The scatter plotting has been immensely peppered all over hell's creation, probably owning to not having that indexing. We're probably something like 'lucky' to have any cold air situated like this... and unfortunately, we cannot ignore it, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Seeing a huge west coast ridge next season will feel like seeing Bald Eagle in the wild in the 1980s after this season. ya know, I've been kinda thinking about it, but I'd imagine that once the tropical forcing shifts east with a Nino, you'd expect to see all of these roided out Aleutian ridges over AK and the WC. and as a result, the cutoffs that we've been seeing over the Rockies would be diving into the Plains and Midwest like literally shift everything 500 miles upstream and we're getting crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Landscape supply place down the street from me was dropping off the heavy equipment and getting deliveries of stone and other materials, prepping for what looks to be an early start to the spring project season. Sign of the times I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: What is the best site to track all-time records being broken? Coolwx.com 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The East-based -NAO is critical too....if that goes poof, then we're likely done. But it's been pretty consistent so far. Yes that really keeps heights low in the 50/50 zone and staves off the southern ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I'm going to give some props to Tip... Back in December he chatted with me about his expectations that another record setting warm blast could visit during February 2023. He was bullish on a warm period in January, but really liked the potential for another Feb record smashing period... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: ya know, I've been kinda thinking about it, but I'd imagine that once the tropical forcing shifts east with a Nino, you'd expect to see all of these roided out Aleutian ridges over AK and the WC. and as a result, the cutoffs that we've been seeing over the Rockies would be diving into the Plains and Midwest like literally shift everything 500 miles upstream and we're getting crushed I'd be interested in a formal study of how so many EPO ridges this year folded over and caused monstrously deep troughs that went offshore in S CAL.....typical La Ninas have Aleutian ridges and west coast troughing, but we've often cleaned up in those patterns anyway as long as the Aleutian ridge was fairly poleward.....we've had poleward aleutian ridges many times this winter but almost every single time, the downstream trough buckled back southwest about 2 standard deviations from what we typically see in that type of pattern....was it coincidence? Probably not...there was something forcing it...but what? I doubt tropical forcing can explain all of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd be interested in a formal study of how so many EPO ridges this year folded over and caused monstrously deep troughs that went offshore in S CAL.....typical La Ninas have Aleutian ridges and west coast troughing, but we've often cleaned up in those patterns anyway as long as the Aleutian ridge was fairly poleward.....we've had poleward aleutian ridges many times this winter but almost every single time, the downstream trough buckled back southwest about 2 standard deviations from what we typically see in that type of pattern....was it coincidence? Probably not...there was something forcing it...but what? I doubt tropical forcing can explain all of it. I'm really not sure. it is weird, though this is a composite of all east-based and basin-wide weak to moderate Ninos, though. just give us this and we'll all be happy. the central based ones are even better, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. better to assume east-based as of now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: I'm going to give some props to Tip... Back in December he chatted with me about his expectations that another record setting warm blast could visit during February 2023. He was bullish on a warm period in January, but really liked the potential for another Feb record smashing period... What did he say about Morch? Early end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t you . Someone was literally posting it and singing it.. now who was it? Probably me . Pattern change still on for the 23rd. We knew getting there would have days like today and every weenie would say where's the pattern change. Look at ENS it's on. Days like today are awesome, but when the cold flashes your ass and you expected spring from now on, you were warned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Seeing a huge west coast ridge next season will feel like seeing Bald Eagle in the wild in the 1980s after this season. Dry conditions out west will be blamed on CC. Colder winter out east with lots of precip will be blamed on CC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Coolwx.com Cool site, my high today was 57, just got stuck there for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 LOL 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: LOL Hey I warned you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: LOL wow... huh? that's nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Hey I warned you lol 500 mb change on an op run. What did you warn us about there coffee guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said: Hey I warned you lol I did too. However, I think we all said next week was not really set in stone for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What did he say about Morch? Early end? I'll let him chat about his March thoughts. Not sure there is much confidence overall other than it's unlikely to take a deep prolonged dive below normal. Probably some modest cold intrusions but don't see a reason at this time to call for long running cold regime. The crappy cold season waits until April and we early May, as is normal these days; lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd be interested in a formal study of how so many EPO ridges this year folded over and caused monstrously deep troughs that went offshore in S CAL.....typical La Ninas have Aleutian ridges and west coast troughing, but we've often cleaned up in those patterns anyway as long as the Aleutian ridge was fairly poleward.....we've had poleward aleutian ridges many times this winter but almost every single time, the downstream trough buckled back southwest about 2 standard deviations from what we typically see in that type of pattern....was it coincidence? Probably not...there was something forcing it...but what? I doubt tropical forcing can explain all of it. I strongly - personally - believe we'd find this owes to the velocity soaking of the hemisphere... because the polar regions are still substantively deep enough in heights that when the background, however albeit modestly the subtropical 'kiss' latitudes term out into the westerlies ...stay elevated ...even if by a mere 3 to 6 dm would likely be enough to integrate and express the balanced geos wind potential. That is causing large wave space behavior morphology... We just ( likely...) happened to be in a precisely the wrong traffic aspect wrt to semi -fixed positioning... ...And yeah, I agree that a well-coupled ENSO Nino ...even alleviation of the NINA ... would lend to moving that fixation into a different mode 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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