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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Couple of buddies of mine have them with the Denali pkg and love them.

yeah, the Denali's are sweet, but at ~$15k above what I paid, ain't happenin' for me.

1 hour ago, wkd said:

What is it you ragging on people not in your region posting in the NE subforum? Maybe we lurk and post because it is probably the best one to get weather knowledge.  Just accept it as a compliment to you guys.

1. many of their posts relate to their area specifically, yet they try to shoehorn it in. 2. they come in here and argue with each other and/or troll each other.

This does not apply to ALL out of area posters, just the few who fuck it up.

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2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

yeah, the Denali's are sweet, but at ~$15k above what I paid, ain't happenin' for me.

1. many of their posts relate to their area specifically, yet they try to shoehorn it in. 2. they come in here and argue with each other and/or troll each other.

This does not apply to ALL out of area posters, just the few who fuck it up.

Many live closer to those in NYC/NNJ those in NNE, so I'm not sure why some care that people technically outside our forum post in here.

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On 2/9/2023 at 11:02 AM, WinterWolf said:

I’ll believe it when I see it. And it’s a week out. Lots can change by then. I’ll be headed to northern Maine next Friday anyway, so it won’t matter Friday for me. 

 

On 2/9/2023 at 10:04 AM, Allsnow said:

64 60 at bdl next week, enjoy 

 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Many live closer to those in NYC/NNJ those in NNE, so I'm not sure why some care that people technically outside our forum post in here.

not going to beat a dead horse, and I agree with you. but see my point #2 above.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, CC def plays a role in that. Agreed.

Yeah...but how much or how little.    Right, 64 million dollar question. 

Whomever answers that with resounding truism ... actually, probably winds up with Hoffa by big oil's tentacles of subsidiary interest groups...  heh.

Anyway, Scott's right - ...these patterns, 2 or whatever hundred years ago would torch too - but to me, that's not the issue.

What is, is the frequency and return rate. 

We keep getting hung up in the scalar gaped-jaw factor, and trying to offset the specter of the thing by way of this mantra, 'this has happened before'

That is not considering the most important aspect:  it should not be happening so frequently. 

Nor should the record blasting recurring heat in NW-N Euro... Australia... the lower Urals...and Siberia, causing methane hydrate blow outs in the land scape due to lost capping permafrost...   blah blah blah... [enter never-before-ism happening again and again here]

Forget how warm it gets and trying to say it's been this warm before, and how it doesn't mean CC is doing this... Those arguments are logically flawed when you add return rates at global wholesale scales, and time dimensional considerations...

Also, CC has the word "change" IN IT. Saying CC doesn't drive the weather does not drop any mic like those that use it seem to think.  The weather is changing; that why the change in CC is there... For and directed at the world of awareness and exposing idiots and liars, that abbreviation needs to become "WC"

heh...being a little facetious, perhaps. 

There are a couple of fascinating article contributed to the IPCC reports that discuss the occurrence of what is called "synergistic heat"   ... There is no combination of synoptics as provided by modeling that would support 108 F at London ( say ...), yet enough sites verify that number to substantiate its validity.  Heat is an aspect that surges to values greater than the sum of the contributing aspects...  

I suspect that phenomenon is extendable to the less than historic heat, as well...  I believe that we are ( as I have been calling it lately...) experiencing "warm burst" scenarios with increasing frequency because it's tied into the same mechanism...where it goes over and beyond. 

 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the arctic doesn't deliver for whatever reason, then winter is over. 

Plain and simple....barring a bowling ball miracle. 

Yep, we will need the Atlantic side and AO region to be at least somewhat favorable. Otherwise, it goes torch.

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So here's my biggest complaint if you'd like to call it that. There's a few METs I will always respect ( and trust ). What I don't understand is how wrong they have been with using the global models when predicting what's going to take place within a week's time. Again, it's not them per say, it's just that they use these global models which give us a prediction of a change and as we get closer, it goes back to what it had been, is warm ( this has happened a lot this year ) then colder and snow are your solutions. Just wipe themselves clean as we get closer. 

  All I'm saying is the global models that they use to help predict the weather have just been so off that it takes their credibility somewhat away from forecasting. I just don't remember seeing this in years past being this bad ( for almost the entire season ). Crazy

 

 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do you think that would include CNE /NNE without Atlantic help 

Sure it would....but their climo is snowier so "Winter over" up there could mean maybe they get 9" of snow in march instead of 25" and down here we get 4" or something instead of 15"...but there's different shades to this. Maybe the arctic doesn't quite get good enough for SNE, but it's good enough for NNE. It could also not be good enough for any of us and it's congrats Quebec again.

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30 minutes ago, wkd said:

I absolutely love cold and snowy winters.  That being said,  I am a homeowner and heat with oil. Sometimes I wonder how many of the people here need to pay utility bills.  I can afford the higher prices for oil but I am sure it puts a strain on the budgets of many in the northeast area.  I'm just trying to put another perspective on this dismal winter.

Lack of cold/winter this year doesn't have the sting it usually would for me exactly because of what you mentioned. The bills are already nearly twice as much as our highest in the last 5 years. We're also still struggling to get caught back up after covid and something that happened 6 months before the shutdown... every little bit helps this year! It's amazing how hard it is to get caught back up once you're behind...

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not ragging if they come and contribute, or lurk and learn. that’s great. No problem at all. 
 

I have a problem when they come in here and jump on the BS bandwagon, and back the trolls. And speak of/lump in New England as if it’s south Jersey.  If you’re gonna do that, stay in your own forum!  

You should have quit with your first sentence. I'm not quite sure what you are talking about as far as southern NJ goes.. Of course they have a climate more similar to those in the mid Atlantic.  You act as though you should be included in those living in Vt, NH, ans Me.

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep warm winter saving on heat bills for sure...Oil/Gas/electric the rates are very high right now.   Snowblower shovels sleds etc have yet to move from my shed to garage and probably wont.

 I never moved mine out of the shed. My wife kept asking me when I was going to do it, and I told her that not until a large event (at least warning snows) is inside of 6 days. We haven't had one get inside that timeframe yet.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 I never moved mine out of the shed. My wife kept asking me when I was going to do it, and I told her that not until a large event (at least warning snows) is inside of 6 days. We haven't had one get inside that timeframe yet.

That's usually what I do but we've yet to get to that point....

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Uncle is oh so close 2/23.

I'm out on 2/23 until/unless we see this giving decent snows into at least southern part of SNE....but preferably trying to give snows into NYC too, because these tend to bump back north inside of 3-4 days.

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