CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The trough out west actually weakened later next week. This ULL circulating along the srn edge tries to pork us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is what happens in the arctic/ Atlantic completely separate form the -PNA. Meaning ..yesterday Scott said to anticipate models under- doing the W /SW coast trough in the 8-15 day period as well as the SE ridge a bit ...so if that takes place ..does that have any bearing on the Atlantic / arctic changes that we are looking for . Or is it reasonable to anticipate can we get a - pna trending Stronger In medium term guidance ( but also better confluence / “press”/ arctic changes Yeah we could conceivably get both....for 2/23 though it's probably a bit harder because the NAO isn't really established yet....that doesn't *try* to really become more permanent until the end of the month into early March. We are kind of using that 2/20-21 wave breaking to give us both a push south with the boundary and act as a 50/50 low as it swings up to the northeast. So we're mostly dependent on that piece offsetting any western troughing. So if the western trough is phasing more or digging deeper each run for 2/23, then we're going to have less available to offset it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The trough out west actually weakened later next week. This ULL circulating along the srn edge tries to pork us lol. If that ULL got left behind, it would probably be better....having it eject faster hurts the CAA going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MVOyster Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 64deg on MV … 2/16, this is nuts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 57.6....hi of 57.9, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If that ULL got left behind, it would probably be better....having it eject faster hurts the CAA going on here. Yep haha. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's more the Arctic becoming more favorable than the Pacific. I expect that to continue to not look good Yea, PAC is modoki la nina full speed ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Mid 70s kissing NJ next week on GFS. Maybe we can get a 2018 repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Wind shift to S caused BDR temp to drop from 67 to 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 And just like that; a flip of the wind direction and GON goes from 71 to 58... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mid 70s kissing NJ next week on GFS. Maybe we can get a 2018 repeat. I was just thinkin' ... "gone from considering a 30 hour overrunning snow/mix event to a possible warm burst scenario -" Unrelated, the la la GFS' 00z and 06z ranges ended with 80 F bulges to Ohio. We can blame this crap on whatever we want ...but the sad fact of that matter is, in 300 years of N/A record keeping, we did not observe what 2017, 2018 and 2020 ( possibly now?) February's have/are doing in our regional backyard. Regardless of cause, that is true ... I guess you'd have to be brain dead if that didn't resonate on some level - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I absolutely love cold and snowy winters. That being said, I am a homeowner and heat with oil. Sometimes I wonder how many of the people here need to pay utility bills. I can afford the higher prices for oil but I am sure it puts a strain on the budgets of many in the northeast area. I'm just trying to put another perspective on this dismal winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 66F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just thinkin' ... "gone from considering a 30 hour overrunning snow/mix event to a possible warm burst scenario -" Unrelated, the la la GFS' 00z and 06z ranges ended with 80 F bulges to Ohio. We can blame this crap on whatever we want ...but the sad fact of that matter is, in 300 years of N/A record keeping, we did not observe what 2017, 2018 and 2020 ( possibly now?) February's have/are doing in our regional backyard. Regardless of cause, that is true ... I guess you'd have to be brain dead if that didn't resonate on some level - It would be torchy 300 yrs ago too though. Sure maybe we added 2-3F or whatever, but you have the other end of the spectrum with KFLG in AZ with a 26" snowpack holding over 8" of SWE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 And even that might not happen-MJO only briefly stays in 8 and the trough keeps going to the Western states....IMO, the MJO 8-1-2 fantasy isn’t happening. This Niña has a Modoki signature now and it’s still well coupled (MEI is -1 and the SOI is still strongly positive) the Niña standing wave convection is still there and will destructively interfere with MJO wave propagation. Also, there’s cold water in the phase 8 region (Niña) and the trade winds are still strong….that’s going to shear the wave and kill the convection off. The only one harping on the MJO going into phase 8 is Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Look how deep and far down that s/w is into MX. That is just taking the Mexican heat and bringing it north. That would be shorts as Pilgrims fixed their thatched roofs too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, FXWX said: And just like that; a flip of the wind direction and GON goes from 71 to 58... At least they got their record in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just thinkin' ... "gone from considering a 30 hour overrunning snow/mix event to a possible warm burst scenario -" Unrelated, the la la GFS' 00z and 06z ranges ended with 80 F bulges to Ohio. We can blame this crap on whatever we want ...but the sad fact of that matter is, in 300 years of N/A record keeping, we did not observe what 2017, 2018 and 2020 ( possibly now?) February's have/are doing in our regional backyard. Regardless of cause, that is true ... I guess you'd have to be brain dead if that didn't resonate on some level - Yea, CC def plays a role in that. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO, the MJO 8-1-2 fantasy isn’t happening. This Niña has a Modoki signature now and it’s still well coupled (MEI is -1 and the SOI is still strongly positive) the Niña standing wave convection is still there and will destructively interfere with MJO wave propagation. Also, there’s cold water in the phase 8 region (Niña) and the trade winds are still strong….that’s going to shear the wave and kill the convection off. The only one harping on the MJO going into phase 8 is Joe Bastardi It's already circled through 8-1-2 multiple times this winter. The result though has been warmer interludes for us. The trades break down in a couple of weeks and it will try to move east a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 68F at BDR breaks the all-time February record set back in... no surprise... 2022. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The boat show in Boston should give test drives in this weather. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Wasn’t someone singing Cha- cha- cha- changes on here yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t someone singing Cha- cha- cha- changes on here yesterday? from warm to torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 57 minutes ago, wkd said: What is it you ragging on people not in your region posting in the NE subforum? Maybe we lurk and post because it is probably the best one to get weather knowledge. Just accept it as a compliment to you guys. I’m not ragging if they come and contribute, or lurk and learn. that’s great. No problem at all. I have a problem when they come in here and jump on the BS bandwagon, and back the trolls. And speak of/lump in New England as if it’s south Jersey. If you’re gonna do that, stay in your own forum! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, CC def plays a role in that. Agreed. It helps getting us to the magic 70F number....if you look in the historical record, there's plenty of 68s and 67s, etc in February for BOS....but CC helps us nudge that to 70F when you add in the underlying background warming. Inland, we've seen 70s in Feb before (like BDL has hit it in Feb '54, Feb '76, and Feb '85 prior to the 2017 and 2018 occurrences). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 49° overcast Heat fail up here, but I’ll take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It helps getting us to the magic 70F number....if you look in the historical record, there's plenty of 68s and 67s, etc in February for BOS....but CC helps us nudge that to 70F when you add in the underlying background warming. Inland, we've seen 70s in Feb before (like BDL has hit it in Feb '54, Feb '76, and Feb '85 prior to the 2017 and 2018 occurrences). Also cool that all the occurrences have been in La Nina....the warm February idea from La Nina isn't just urban legend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t someone singing Cha- cha- cha- changes on here yesterday? That was for next weekend and beyond…that still seems to be in track. But it’s a shit winter, so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t someone singing Cha- cha- cha- changes on here yesterday? I was....but if you head rea-rea-rea-read my post, you would have seen how tenuous I felt late Feb was. I implied most of the snow would be in NNE until the arctic changes in March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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