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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the climate is only getting warmer <3 

That seems to be the scientific consencus but how about using your met degree knowledge to let the rest of us non-mets know how the slow warming will affect the likelihood of the already rare KU events.  Please contribute with your knowledge of meteorology instead of continually putting up crappy one sentence posts.

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Beautiful weather, 50/37 here right now but sincerly hoping for snow and semi winter cold at the end of next week. I'd be happy to get a couple of weeks of highs near or a bit below freezing and a significant snowstorm somewhere around the very end of the month and beginning of March. Really, our last best chance. 

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm amazed that my low here was +31

thirty  f   one    

 ...above normal.  Which, ...you know, if we had a southerly gale type Lakes cutter raging on, we could do that and have in the past.  But this?  dead calm, open clear skies...

That's really something for Feb 16.

But a subtlety to that:   ..once again, our lows pull the most weight on above normal, when it is above normal...

I find this very specific aspect to be both consistent across all seasons... patterns, and permutations in the nature of our weather. 

The question is, why?   It's a fascinating discussion/Q for scientific debate (imho-), though my guess is... heh, given the subject matter, few would engage or be willing to?  

Anyway, why the low temperatures own the ballast of "above normalness" ...I don't 'think' is a CC issue?    Then we'd have to get into how much or little... Like CC may control 10% of that weirdness ...20...30, flip a f'n coin.    Maybe it is all connect to DP... yeah you know - is the DP above normal, in all circumstances except for freak direct arctic inserts?? 

 

For the coastal plain I'd point to SST's but for you I think it's more of a story of the tenor of season. Lack of snow cover, and surrounding areas with very warm ground temps vs norms. A little bit of wind and poof. So easy - why? Because those areas from which the wind is fanning are scorched, and we have no in-situ cold to slow it. Add this to a current background where the teleconnections are putrid from a cold standpoint. +AO +NAO, cold retreats. So Caribou and the likes keep their cold; we see the air from philly without a fight.

 

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4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I think one of our knowledgeable METS said that would probably happen. But we gotta hope the Atlantic and Arctic change .

 

I notice you “like” everything the trolls say all the time like clockwork. What’s your deal?  Why are you here, out of your subforum?  

What is it you ragging on people not in your region posting in the NE subforum? Maybe we lurk and post because it is probably the best one to get weather knowledge.  Just accept it as a compliment to you guys.

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is so exhausting

gem_z500a_us_fh150_trend.thumb.gif.246b2ec88ecf819b7dee0149aee96699.gif

Yep...GEM still looks like shit too. Ukie/Euro looked decent at 00z but I'm expecting them to trend north. Funny how 24h ago it was the Euro that was the ugliest but now that has flipped.

 

2/23 was always a tough pull....but it is possible if you drive that boundary far enough south which guidance is not doing as much.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If that clipper on 2/26 verifies, with the way this winter has gone, we're gonna feel like it's 1991 when the 2-4" map is posted by Bruce Schwoegler.

Scott / Will , etc Is what happens in the arctic/ Atlantic separate form the -PNA.

Meaning ..yesterday Scott said to anticipate models under- doing the W /SW coast trough in the 8-15 day period as well as the SE ridge a bit ...so if that takes place ..does that have any bearing on the Atlantic / arctic changes that we  are looking for . Or is it reasonable to anticipate can we get a - pna trending Stronger In medium term guidance ( but also better confluence / “press”/ arctic changes 

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