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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just laughably too low this year; NAM just doesn't see the warmth even as it is happening. 

I mean, it gets worse -  as of 9 a.m., eyeballing it, just about all locations in New England are at or above the 12z NAM's highs for the day.

 

This shallow inversion is fraudulent with sun and mixing. 
image.png

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13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just laughably too low this year; NAM just doesn't see the warmth even as it is happening. 

I mean, it gets worse -  as of 9 a.m., eyeballing it, just about all locations in New England are at or above the 12z NAM's highs for the day.

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namconus_T2m_neus_3.png

Mid 60s in southern Fairfield County already. 

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I know it's been drilled into our heads that the UL's dictate the surface, but I think this weight shifts significantly at certain times of the year, one of which is now.

Soil temps in New England bottom right about now (on average), and trend higher from here as ISR absorption > loss of heat due to land/air exchanges. But with the consistent lack of snow cover, and +AN temps areas in SNE have likely bottomed 4 weeks ago (are 4 weeks ahead of climo). Conversely areas with snow cover are likely still tracking seasonal norms; and are therefore 4 weeks behind.

It at least partly explains why areas in NNE under largely the same airmass often can't break the smallest inversions, while areas less than 50 miles away without a pack, do it daily. This in turn creates a positive feedback in the pack-less areas and widens the regional climate disparity, as ISR increases the 4 weeks ahead, turns to 5, and so on... 

Eventually what happens though is those areas to the north with sustained pack, become areas of locally grown cold. Meso Surface HP's become a regularity, seemingly emerging without any UL support. Due to increasing ISR, and increasing albedo, the surface HP's become stronger--so much so that it begins to modify the UPPER LEVELS, especially as we move into March and early April.  Strong surface divergence produces strong UL convergence which gives us those hellish -NAO's in March and much of early spring.

Just a theory to partly explain what I believe has happened the past several years and this year is tracking similarly... 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

PVD 62 and BOS 60 record highs already 

Still have at least another couple hours of filtered sun....not sure if we crack 70F somewhere, but it should get close...esp down in interior SE CT where the sun looks the best right now.

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44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This shallow inversion is fraudulent with sun and mixing. 
 

Speaking of shallow inversions… last night was wild around here with huge swings.

From 32F to 53F in one hour at MVL.  Fell back into the 30s later too.

Nothing like a puff of wind and 21 degree rise in temps.

A566542C-1E11-4D57-B43D-53BBE752E713.jpeg.27dbc1060450f6b2f5e7e2273d3af6a2.jpeg

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