February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

the two most trustworthy models known to the technological pantheon, the JMA and ICON models... , both have 22nd bombs leaving our coast... heh

 

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I probably went right by your street . I get up there 1-2x a year . I have customers there. MVOH in Tilton is where I was this morning for an 11:00 . Was at Kettlehead a bit before noon 

Yeah…I’m on the other side of the river across from Hannaford.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs showing the potential again towards month end. 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Place is unreadable. 

It’s basically become this from a significant group of posters:

1. stop listening to Mets discuss any pattern shown on models. If they tell you something other than “it sucks”, it’s just wishcasting, etc

2. Any winter type weather on model guidance is fake. Either add 30 degrees to arctic shots or assume all snow events will be rain 

 

They should have kept accuwx forums open for these clowns. I’m getting close to going digital office space with the ban/suspend button. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Place is unreadable. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Where did George go , is he ok 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…I’m on the other side of the river across from Hannaford.

Near Market Basket?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where did George go , is he ok 

He’s fine. He whipped the pope with a ruler earlier today and went about his day.

[cleetussnow]

We get a lot of mirage 10 day storms and patterns with potential even in good winters.  Even the mirages are fewer this year, and we certainly have not arrived at any snow oasis.  I think that paints the mental picture many of us have imprinted. 

This winter is absurd and so far outside the norm even a non winter enthusiast (a civilian) could be feeling a bit off center about the whole thing, let alone this group of profound loonys ( and I count myself as one). Skiers, snowmobilers, ice fisherman, outdoor hockey people, snowmen and snowwomen makers, sledders, all of whom now forlorn on some level.  

and the weenies are forsaken and burnt, quite literally.

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s basically become this from a significant group of posters:

1. stop listening to Mets discuss any pattern shown on models. If they tell you something other than “it sucks”, it’s just wishcasting, etc

2. Any winter type weather on model guidance is fake. Either add 30 degrees to arctic shots or assume all snow events will be rain 

 

They should have kept accuwx forums open for these clowns. I’m getting close to going digital office space with the ban/suspend button. 

The funny thing is that we’ve all mentioned the caveats multiple times, but people are acting like our comments about model solutions are translated to locking in snowy solutions?  
 

Makes you secretly hope for a 88-92 redux to level set the weenies. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I’ll welcome any winter weather .. ice or snow or any combination.  I’ve been accused on here of being unhinged  by the winter. I truly am fine and at ease with it.  If we end in futility .. so be it. Not what I want, but it’s what I do think is more likely. Do I think Ray is going to hit his lower range of 60-70” forecast for Metheun.. no.. and I don’t think it’s even close . He has 19.5” YTD.. Could I be wrong ? Of course .  Once Dec and Jan were lost.. it’s just easier to not care as much. And then when Feb was gone .. well even easier . If there’s events to track and enjoy.. I am all in . That’s just my mindset. Morch snow happens and it may this year.. but in my mind .. this winter will go down as one of the all time worsts of my 50 years. I’m just being objective 

[greenmtnwx]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s basically become this from a significant group of posters:

1. stop listening to Mets discuss any pattern shown on models. If they tell you something other than “it sucks”, it’s just wishcasting, etc

2. Any winter type weather on model guidance is fake. Either add 30 degrees to arctic shots or assume all snow events will be rain 

 

They should have kept accuwx forums open for these clowns. I’m getting close to going digital office space with the ban/suspend button. 

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter. 

[SnoSki14]

CFS weeklies show how even a -NAO may not do anything

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter. 

What exactly are we supposed to say? Are we supposed to just forecast with emotion and lie about the upcoming pattern? 

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s basically become this from a significant group of posters:

1. stop listening to Mets discuss any pattern shown on models. If they tell you something other than “it sucks”, it’s just wishcasting, etc

2. Any winter type weather on model guidance is fake. Either add 30 degrees to arctic shots or assume all snow events will be rain 

They should have kept accuwx forums open for these clowns. I’m getting close to going digital office space with the ban/suspend button. 

Bingo.  We all get it. Winter has sucked but what are we adding to the discussion of model data is shown to illustrate a point and the response is “Nope, not happening.”

At the very least show some model data to illustrate why it won’t happen.

[Damage In Tolland]

Winters like this truly reveal folks true sides. And that goes for Mets, weenies and regular posters like myself . Snowy winters are easy because it’s all chutes and ladders . Ratter winters like this from Fort Kent to Cape Cod to Greenwich bring out the good , the bad, and the ugly. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter. 

It’s on the reader if they are getting sucked into believing a 10 day SWFE will verify. I haven’t seen anyone saying it’s a lock to get good storms next week. This forum is supposed to be filled with seasoned hobbyists and Mets who should know better than to get sucked in. 
 

Now if a met starts forecasting huge snows and they don’t verify, that is one thing. But that hasn’t happened at all recently. The only time all winter I feel like most of us have honked was in December…and the longwave height pattern forecasted largely verified…I’ve posted the H5 composite for that 2-3 week period…we just happened to get skunked. That sucked, and it caused a lot of people to get snake bit. I get it. 
 

But since then, most of the decent patterns have been marginal at best or didn’t get inside 10 days. The very late January and early February colder pattern verified but again, we didn’t get much snow to show for it and it didn’t last very long. Almost everyone forecasted a lot of warmth for mid-February. That was pretty clear on LR guidance. 
 

This upcoming pattern is not as bad as earlier in the winter. It’s not Feb 2015 or Jan 2011 but it can produce. Will it? I dunno…we could get skunked again. Cutters are a definitive risk when you have the big west coast trough with little to no Atlantic blocking. But I am not going to lie to everyone here and say it’s the same pattern when it’s not. Are some features the same? Sure…like the WC troughing. But the Atlantic is different and the arctic is a bit different. That could be enough to matter…hence why we’re seeing more storms on these model runs than we have all winter. Do you think it’s a coincidence we’re seeing more snowy solutions? I don’t think it is. Will they verify? I have no idea. 

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s on the reader if they are getting sucked into believing a 10 day SWFE will verify. I haven’t seen anyone saying it’s a lock to get good storms next week. This forum is supposed to be filled with seasoned hobbyists and Mets who should know better than to get sucked in. 
 

Now if a met starts forecasting huge snows and they don’t verify, that is one thing. But that hasn’t happened at all recently. The only time all winter I feel like most of us have honked was in December…and the longwave height pattern forecasted largely verified…I’ve posted the H5 composite for that 2-3 week period…we just happened to get skunked. That sucked, and it caused a lot of people to get snake bit. I get it. 
 

But since then, most of the decent patterns have been marginal at best or didn’t get inside 10 days. The very late January and early February colder pattern verified but again, we didn’t get much snow to show for it and it didn’t last very long. Almost everyone forecasted a lot of warmth for mid-February. That was pretty clear on LR guidance. 
 

This upcoming pattern is not as bad as earlier in the winter. It’s not Feb 2015 or Jan 2011 but it can produce. Will it? I dunno…we could get skunked again. Cutters are a definitive risk when you have the big west coast trough with little to no Atlantic blocking. But I am not going to lie to everyone here and say it’s the same pattern when it’s not. Are some features the same? Sure…like the WC troughing. But the Atlantic is different and the arctic is a bit different. That could be enough to matter…hence why we’re seeing more storms on these model runs than we have all winter. Do you think it’s a coincidence we’re seeing more snowy solutions? I don’t think it is. Will they verify? I have no idea. 

All fair points.

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter. 

What seems to happen is the Mets fully understand the probability and the odds but will talk about it because it’s something to talk about… while the bulk of the forum usually get excited when the Mets are chatting. 

There’s definitely a lot of emotional turmoil… like if Will/ORH is talking about a threat people read way to much into that.  They think Will likes this one, it’s coming.  And now folks are just sick of Mets talking about it, because there’s still a good bit of weight of emotional investment when the Mets chirp.

Its this weird dynamic going on.

Edit: Will just nailed it. “It’s on the reader…” for not understanding exactly what the Mets are discussing.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Give me some glaze.

Long 6 weeks post preg eh? No judgment or anything 

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll welcome any winter weather .. ice or snow or any combination.  I’ve been accused on here of being unhinged  by the winter. I truly am fine and at ease with it.  If we end in futility .. so be it. Not what I want, but it’s what I do think is more likely. Do I think Ray is going to hit his lower range of 60-70” forecast for Metheun.. no.. and I don’t think it’s even close . He has 19.5” YTD.. Could I be wrong ? Of course .  Once Dec and Jan were lost.. it’s just easier to not care as much. And then when Feb was gone .. well even easier . If there’s events to track and enjoy.. I am all in . That’s just my mindset. Morch snow happens and it may this year.. but in my mind .. this winter will go down as one of the all time worsts of my 50 years. I’m just being objective 

Have to agree but I will still take my gummies. 100mg watermelon 

[greenmtnwx]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What exactly are we supposed to say? Are we supposed to just forecast with emotion and lie about the upcoming pattern? 

Perhaps maybe just a little more emphasis that in this season, no matter how solid of a look numerical prediction shows, the biases of the SE ridge and eastern warmth are likely to overcome it. 

[FXWX]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What exactly are we supposed to say? Are we supposed to just forecast with emotion and lie about the upcoming pattern? 

I'm only a causal poster, but I do spend a good amount of time reading posts by mets on here.  I'm not sure how many of the excellent mets on here continue to put up with the BS.  I do not recall any met doing anything other than discussing 7 to 10, 10+ day snd/or the weeklies trends, as modeled, with a crap lot of caveats each time.  And once the patterns got within 7 days, they were almost always discussing why it was not likely to not work out in positive way for snow and/or cold lovers across central & southern areas.   The lack of comprehension on this board is stunning sometimes.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll welcome any winter weather .. ice or snow or any combination.  I’ve been accused on here of being unhinged  by the winter. I truly am fine and at ease with it.  If we end in futility .. so be it. Not what I want, but it’s what I do think is more likely. Do I think Ray is going to hit his lower range of 60-70” forecast for Metheun.. no.. and I don’t think it’s even close . He has 19.5” YTD.. Could I be wrong ? Of course .  Once Dec and Jan were lost.. it’s just easier to not care as much. And then when Feb was gone .. well even easier . If there’s events to track and enjoy.. I am all in . That’s just my mindset. Morch snow happens and it may this year.. but in my mind .. this winter will go down as one of the all time worsts of my 50 years. I’m just being objective 

Fair. I won’t argue the biggest rat of my CT life, so far, either but we have a long ways to go before we trap the rat and label it as the biggest regardless of how we feel up to this point. The past is done, the seasonal hope is over…time to take what comes and enjoy whatever we can squeeze out. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Perhaps maybe just a little more emphasis that in this season, no matter how solid of a look numerical prediction shows, the biases of the SE ridge and eastern warmth are likely to overcome it. 

I must have said taking into account the -PNA a million times. I even drew an illustration. Christ. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to agree but I will still take my gummies. 100mg watermelon 

I think there’s a misconception that I am rooting against snow . Quite the opposite. I just don’t think a deep - PNA , stout SE ridge , and no blocking is conducive for snow south of NH/ VT. That’s why I made the weed /beer bet with you . If I do lose, I’ll have to send you a check as I won’t go to dispensary if that works 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

All fair points.

 

So how long before this gets through your head? 

[greenmtnwx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I must have said taking into account the -PNA a million times. I even drew an illustration. Christ. 

Yes you did. 

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

So how long before this gets through your head? 

Listen you know what I mean this year. You may not admit it but you get my point. It’ll leave it at that. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there’s a misconception that I am rooting against snow . Quite the opposite. I just don’t think a deep - PNA , stout SE ridge , and no blocking is conducive for snow south of NH/ VT. That’s why I made the weed /beer bet with you . If I do lose, I’ll have to send you a check as I won’t go to dispensary if that works 

Lol, a check. Break out of your shell and visit a dispensary…you’ll be a better man  for it.