ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Fwiw, 18z GFS is still weak sauce with that 2/19-20 wave so it’s prob not gonna look good for 2/23. Queue the whiners in 3-2-1…. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Just getting home and catching up here and perusing posts.. modeling started the inevitable shift back north based on posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Tbh both sides are kinda annoying at times. lol I think the persistence people are mostly just checked out of winter and have the spring itch so it’s more wishcasting than anything. Not everyone…just most. And the LR disco is great and I enjoy the SSW/MJO/indice talk, but let’s be real…the science of it and the model verification are 2 different things. But obviously this is a weather forum and I defer to the side of actual scientific discussion and not the emotional winter cancel arguments. Trust me, I’d love to end winter right now, but it’s still mid Feb and there’s plenty of winter climo left for everyone. It’s like predicting no more dews for anyone on Aug 15. We know better than that. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:03 PM, 78Blizzard said: This is what I responded to, not your editorializing now: "The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila." Expand Right, and I added that editorial to explain what was meant by that in case I was not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:19 PM, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw, 18z GFS is still weak sauce with that 2/19-20 wave so it’s prob not gonna look good for 2/23. Queue the whiners in 3-2-1…. Expand At least its active though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 That monster out in the upper midwest on the 23rd... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Ryan went from this yesterday To this today .. lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I was up in Franklin and Tilton and then Keene today in NH. Coming home in far southern NH in Winchester there was an amazing amount of tree damage along route 10 heading south. White pines, maples.. looked like most species. That area must have gotten crushed with damage and power outages Expand Yep. As I’ve driven around more the extent of the damage from those twin snow events is quite evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Ryan changed a 9 day forecast by 3F. WTF happened to this board? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fine, but I posted all three ensembles and the GEFS were the most pessimistic in terms of snowfall. Expand For you. For me it was eps which makes sense given the high n making the mean less subject to bigger skews from extreme outliers. You’ll do ok-not sure about pike south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:33 PM, weathafella said: For you. For me it was eps which makes sense given the high n making the mean less subject to bigger skews from extreme outliers. You’ll do ok-not sure about pike south though. Expand Are we sure anyone in SNE is going to do ok? Is it possible this continues shifting back north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan went from this yesterday To this today .. lol Expand On 2/15/2023 at 10:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Ryan changed a 9 day forecast by 3F. WTF happened to this board? Expand More disturbing to me is that he took pictures of it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 9:57 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm dumbfounded but ok: 1) Analyze the guidance/potential ----> This is what meteorologists and hobbyists do. 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. ---> This is to take into account the bias of models seeming to underplay the -PNA 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region ---> We have a better Canada/NATL region than what we have seen all winter. Fact not opinion. 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. ---> This is acknowledging that because of many moving parts, one should not fall in love with a particular solution this far out. 5) Avoid emotions. ---> You need to add more of this 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila. ---> Objectivity as in understanding all the variables and having a rationale discussion void of weenieism and vapid pessimism based on emotions. So how is that wishcasting? Expand we now have troll triplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I was up in Franklin and Tilton and then Keene today in NH. Coming home in far southern NH in Winchester there was an amazing amount of tree damage along route 10 heading south. White pines, maples.. looked like most species. That area must have gotten crushed with damage and power outages Expand You were in my territory! if you ever have time to kill, message me on here and I'll meet you for a drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Kevin isn't handling this winter well 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:37 PM, mahk_webstah said: You were in my territory! if you ever have time to kill, message me on here and I'll meet you for a drink. Expand Absolutely. It was nice to see snow even though it was far less than what you had. I stopped at Kettlehead Brewery and picked up a few 4 packs to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:40 PM, CT Rain said: Kevin isn't handling this winter well Expand For proclaiming being in and up, boy has he gotten it in and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:40 PM, CT Rain said: Kevin isn't handling this winter well Expand I’ve been out on winter since Dec . I am so at ease and peace . I am so confident in futility records that I bet Ginx beers vs weed. He wins .. I buy him weed. I win.. he buys me beers . Once you don’t care anymore it’s so much more relaxing and not stressful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Absolutely. It was nice to see snow even though it was far less than what you had. I stopped at Kettlehead Brewery and picked up a few 4 packs to go Expand Had some Kettlehead this past week, yum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:50 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Had some Kettlehead this past week, yum. Expand Was hoping I’d see Dendy too, but he ignored my post this morning (shut in?) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Absolutely. It was nice to see snow even though it was far less than what you had. I stopped at Kettlehead Brewery and picked up a few 4 packs to go Expand Jesus christ you were like 2 minutes from me. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Was hoping I’d see Dendy too, but he ignored my post this morning (shut in?) Expand Never saw it, but I was in CON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Any day now, I'm expecting to see a grumpy old guy step up to a podium wearing a hoodie with cut off sleeves declare " We are onto December" whenever a question is asked. I think even Gandhi would be throwing his hands up in the air and slinging four letter adjectives regarding this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Pattern sucks and isn’t getting better. Unless you consider better going from 60 to 40s and wet with maybe mixed bag of sh-t in mountains. Any other conjecture is whistling past the graveyard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 10:53 PM, dendrite said: Never saw it, but I was in CON Expand I probably went right by your street . I get up there 1-2x a year . I have customers there. MVOH in Tilton is where I was this morning for an 11:00 . Was at Kettlehead a bit before noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Place is unreadable. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 11:06 PM, CoastalWx said: Place is unreadable. Expand Actually been a long day in here, from pope again now to melts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 9:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gives me some glaze. Expand Thats what she said. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 9:30 PM, mahk_webstah said: Why do you act like such an asshole? I mean you have a right to, but why choose that way of interacting with people? Expand I mean the pope said much worse , and everyone laughed and shook it off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/15/2023 at 11:06 PM, CoastalWx said: Place is unreadable. Expand Good time for a GTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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