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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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I totally buy that what is likely ENSO related background forcing leading this pattern of persistence both with respect to sensible weather results, and model error, however, at some point that standing wave will in fact decay. La nina is eroding both from a SST standpoint and MEI (ocean-atmosphere coupling) and I think it was Scott already posted evidence that the cool ENSO standing wave had relented. 

Persist at your own peril.

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33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not according to Will they didn’t. And I don’t know why you’re telling me this Jerr…I know better than you and anybody what this winters personality is..I have 4.3” on the season.  
 

What pisses me off Jerry, are the folks that never can talk about what is at hand objectively, and just say more of the same when it clearly isn’t. Nobody ever said feet of snow, we were discussing potential and a pattern that comes up next week. That was all.  But somehow people changed it into the sane old whining BS. 
 

Will explained it perfectly…we’re here to discuss potential, and what modeling was showing. Just like the cold shot that was historic…but some folks Poo poo’d it anyway as it approached. I’m sick of it. 

I call them as I see them.  Somehow this one needs more clarity and that’s still really hard at this lead.  Maybe we’ll have a more consistent direction by the weekend.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I totally buy the what is likely ENSO related background forcing leading this pattern of persistence both with respect to sensible weather results, and model error, however, at some point that standing wave will in fact decay. La nina is eroding both from a SST standpoint and MEI (ocean-atmosphere coupling) and I think it was Scott already posted evidence that the cool ENSO standing wave had relented. 

Persist at your own peril.

Furthermore, I don't think it even really matters as it relates to any SSW impact...I don't even expect the Pacific to change much. Its the arctic where things shake up.

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Very predictable posts all the way around 

The graphic Scott posted i think was key to watch 

Via CPC The more latitude you have the better shot for cooler than ave temps toward end of month 

 

Agree. Latter February is gradient/latitude driven and it's very possible said gradient remains where it has all season.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I call them as I see them.  Somehow this one needs more clarity and that’s still really hard at this lead.  Maybe we’ll have a more consistent direction by the weekend.

I’m cool with that. And I’m all for that, and  no argument it’s sucked to date for sure. I was talking/meaning later next week and beyond..that’s all.  I’m not expecting some big turn around…just would like to see a bonafide snow storm before we close the door on this rat. 

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile NAM is gonna ruin some Friday forecasts I think, Same with HRRR.

Wave is really flattening out due to today's wave, which will be SE Canada tomorrow. Destructive interference as Tip puts it.

Deamplifying that wave is a catch-22 from the warm side of things. It's through faster and the surface CAD behind it is trending weaker. It's a cold front that takes us back to AN from ++AN.

Friday's loss is Saturday's gain.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Wave is really flattening out due to today's wave, which will be SE Canada tomorrow. Destructive interference as Tip puts it.

Deamplifying that wave is a catch-22 from the warm side of things. It's through faster and the surface CAD behind it is trending weaker.

Friday's loss is Saturday's gain.

A few degrees Saturday vs a 20 degree difference Friday. :lol: 

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