February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t this a feature we’ve seen all winter basically?

Sort of, but this winter featured that, a strong Nino like jet out of nowhere, and lows diving into the Baja. This time, that's offset by Canada finally getting colder and with better confluence. 

But like Will said..in this transition time...you need things to break right. So a stronger system early to mid week next week would help with the next one a few days later. 

[weathafella]

Wolfie, the ensembles took a step back also.  At some point one has to acknowledge that seasons do have “personalities”.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wolfie, the ensembles took a step back also.  At some point one has to acknowledge that seasons do have “personalities”.

PAC actually improved on the EPS out beyond the first 8 days and that east based NAO seems to be slowly getting stronger.

Most notable step back today for me on the EPS was the weaker 2/20 system which produces less confluence behind it....keeping it more zonal for 2/22-23. IF we're gonna sneak that 2/22-23 system in as a winter event, we'll need the prior one to set the table.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sort of, but this winter featured that, a strong Nino like jet out of nowhere, and lows diving into the Baja. This time, that's offset by Canada finally getting colder and with better confluence. 

But like Will said..in this transition time...you need things to break right. So a stronger system early to mid week next week would help with the next one a few days later. 

Yeah I remember multiple discussions about needing a stronger system to help the next one.

Been a frustrating year

[Hazey]

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

are you still way BN for snowfall?

Clawed and limped our way to 70cms season to date. Normal is 225 so 70% below normal. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

PAC actually improved on the EPS out beyond the first 8 days and that east based NAO seems to be slowly getting stronger.

Most notable step back today for me on the EPS was the weaker 2/20 system which produces less confluence behind it....keeping it more zonal for 2/22-23. IF we're gonna sneak that 2/22-23 system in as a winter event, we'll need the prior one to set the table.

That was the only thing I saw too and that system was never a lock. I almost viewed it as gravy since it sort of snuck up.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wolfie, the ensembles took a step back also.  At some point one has to acknowledge that seasons do have “personalities”.

As long as spring doesn't turn into winter then we're good. 

I'm sure most would be happy to leave this disaster of a winter behind them. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Clawed and limped our way to 70cms season to date. Normal is 225 so 70% below normal. 

You are going to need a repeat of White Juan to come close!

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile, beautiful day today except for the gales.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was the only thing I saw too and that system was never a lock. I almost viewed it as gravy since it sort of snuck up.

Yeah about 3 days ago, we were looking more at Feb 25th and beyond, but then 2/23 started showing up as a legit SWFE on several runs....and the reason was that 2/20-21 system started amplifying more and creating the cold and confluence necessary to give us 2/23.....today, we took a step back on that, but I'd be very careful in assuming it's not going to pan out. A handful of posters will do that anyway, but I'm talking about the ones who actually want to parse the data honestly.

Ukie/GGEM were very suppressed....while I don't believe them, it could be a sign that the Euro was a little too lax on today's run. Even a compromise would work. There's also continuing signs that the March -NAO could be real....not gonna believe it yet, but we haven't had any steps back on that evolution.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah about 3 days ago, we were looking more at Feb 25th and beyond, but then 2/23 started showing up as a legit SWFE on several runs....and the reason was that 2/20-21 system started amplifying more and creating the cold and confluence necessary to give us 2/23.....today, we took a step back on that, but I'd be very careful in assuming it's not going to pan out. A handful of posters will do that anyway, but I'm talking about the ones who actually want to parse the data honestly.

Ukie/GGEM were very suppressed....while I don't believe them, it could be a sign that the Euro was a little too lax on today's run. Even a compromise would work. There's also continuing signs that the March -NAO could be real....not gonna believe it yet, but we haven't had any steps back on that evolution.

yeah anything before the 25th or so is gravy IMO. the real chances would come once the -NAO develops, which is looking a bit more likely since it's moving up in time

[CoastalWx]

HA, get a load of the HRRR Friday morning. Low 60s near LWM, ice for the Pope. Backdoor looking.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah anything before the 25th or so is gravy IMO. the real chances would come once the -NAO develops, which is looking a bit more likely since it's moving up in time

Still a -pna out in la la land. Until that changes don’t expect much down here imo 

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wolfie, the ensembles took a step back also.  At some point one has to acknowledge that seasons do have “personalities”.

Not according to Will they didn’t. And I don’t know why you’re telling me this Jerr…I know better than you and anybody what this winters personality is..I have 4.3” on the season.  
 

What pisses me off Jerry, are the folks that never can talk about what is at hand objectively, and just say more of the same when it clearly isn’t. Nobody ever said feet of snow, we were discussing potential and a pattern that comes up next week. That was all.  But somehow people changed it into the sane old whining BS. 
 

Will explained it perfectly…we’re here to discuss potential, and what modeling was showing. Just like the cold shot that was historic…but some folks Poo poo’d it anyway as it approached. I’m sick of it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

anything before March 1st is a bonus anyway before any blocking that does occur gets going. that's when the ceiling gets raised

it's obviously not a guarantee, but it's showing up more on OP runs and ensembles and moving forward in time

the effects of the SSW will also downwell easily to 50mb and possibly to 100mb... this has a good chance of coupling IMO. might also be why ensembles are getting blockier towards March

 

I'm sure this was lined up in @snowman19's tweet regurgitation queue. ..tip of his tongue.

[CoastalWx]

The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 

1) Analyze the guidance/potential

2) Add a dash more of -PNA.

3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region

4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 

5) Avoid emotions. 

6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila.

 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Still a -pna out in la la land. Until that changes don’t expect much down here imo 

i mean, yes, there is a -PNA here, but this pattern is very active and has a lot of cold air. -NAO nosing in there keeping the 50/50 confluence close as well. great overrunning pattern verbatim

I think this look would work down into NJ as well, obviously for NE. the main thing that makes me optimistic is that all of the cold air is in NA instead on the other side of the globe, which was a huge problem in January

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

why deviate from the status quo?

I’m surprised so many people did based on a few good op runs. Pattern looks the same shit as all winter. 

[Torch Tiger]

another fang Wednesday it seems 

[snowman19]

I'm sure this was lined up in [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]'s tweet regurgitation queue. ..tip of his tongue.

If this SSW doesn’t turn the east coast into an arctic tundra with 8 feet of snow come 3/31 a lot of hypesters are going to look really bad

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Still a -pna out in la la land. Until that changes don’t expect much down here imo 

It's hard to expect much when you haven't had much of anything. In a "good" winter most would be fairly okay with the upcoming pattern.  and a -PNA isn't a death sentence for snow lovers.

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, yes, there is a -PNA here, but this pattern is very active and has a lot of cold air. -NAO nosing in there keeping the 50/50 confluence close as well. great overrunning pattern verbatim

I think this look would work down into NJ as well, obviously for NE. the main thing that makes me optimistic is that all of the cold air is in NA instead on the other side of the globe, which was a huge problem in January

lol no, you are really awful at this

[CoastalWx]

The PNA area overall  probably trends deeper shown with blue arrow. I also expect the SE ridge to flex shown in red arrow.

Key areas to hold on are the 50/50 low area circled in blue, and ridging into Greenland and points west shown in red. Exact locations might be off a tad because of the projection of the image, but you get the idea. If these features trend worse, then all bets are off. Right now, I don't see anything showing that, other than typical model ebb and flows.

 

 

 

 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The PNA area overall  probably trends deeper shown with blue arrow. I also expect the SE ridge to flex shown in red arrow.

Key areas to hold on are the 50/50 low area circled in blue, and ridging into Greenland and points west shown in red. Exact locations might be off a tad because of the projection of the image, but you get the idea. If these features trend worse, then all bets are off. Right now, I don't see anything showing that, other than typical model ebb and flows.

 

 

 

 

Correct, if anything the SE ridge will link up with any “blocking”. We have seen this before and it’s game over.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

lol no, you are really awful at this

Deep thoughts from QG "add 30 degrees to the cold shot" Omega.

[kdxken]

I don't care if we never get another flake. 62° and bright blue sky thank you.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Correct, if anything the SE ridge will link up with any “blocking”. We have seen this before and it’s game over.

That isn't showing blocking, that's straight up +NAO/AO. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Tick tick 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That isn't showing blocking, that's straight up +NAO/AO. 

I can see the hights move west in the Greenland region but it really doesn’t matter

[powderfreak]

What a day… 40F and sun.