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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

true. March can be prolific, though. way more of a winter month than December, as much as many would hate to admit

No doubt, but we have some players on deck next week that we may not get in March, we may get a better look who knows. We would hate to see next week turn to crap. 

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2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I remember when day 10 threats never even got a mention. Not even discussed at all. Now we look further and further out. Bond to have things change out in La la Land. 

Function of both the winter (lack of snow events) and the current pattern (nothing imminent inside of 7 days). Also a function of more model data and more model runs.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile Euro op has a weak pike south system on Tuesday night next week and then a SWFE for near the MA/VT/NH border north a few days later. Much weaker than 00z. 

That shortwave that ejected from the southwest (the one in TX at 168 and off Carolians coast at 192) whiffs us....prob why we got a bunch of weak unorganized crap this run.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That shortwave that ejected from the southwest (the one in TX at 168 and off Carolians coast at 192) whiffs us....prob why we got a bunch of weak unorganized crap this run.

EPS is sort of strung out and you can tell the members must be all over the place in that Tues night through Thursday timeframe. 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The feet of snow is evaporating before it forms.  This winter being this winter.

We tried to tell 'em.  This winter should have taught us that day 8-9 snow threats most likely are not going to pan out.  As I've said, when the threat gets to within day 5 some of us will be more interested.

What's surprising this winter is that there haven't been more :cliff:  jumpers.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is sort of strung out and you can tell the members must be all over the place in that Tues night through Thursday timeframe. 

I didn't like the trend of weakening that 2/20-21 deal in flatter flow....it doesn't drive the boundary down as far south behind it....you can see it on the EPS too with the heights in SE Canada not as low after that system as the 00z run. We want the flow a bit more amped for that one like GGEM/Ukie.

But that's what the 2/22-23 system depends on. Doesn't really affect the systems that potentially may come after that (like 2/25-2/28 timeframe) But if we're gonna try and steal that 2/22-23 deal next week, then we need that front runner wave to be pretty amped.

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No doubt, but we have some players on deck next week that we may not get in March, we may get a better look who knows. We would hate to see next week turn to crap. 

I never understood why some folks expect November to deliver the good with winter weather. Even though it gets difficult to get snows and arctic cold in March the deeper into the month you go depending on latitude, it’s much easier than in November. Just looking at climo alone, November is a torch compared to March. Also, SSTs along the coast are at their coolest in March making boundary layer wind fetch/direction off the ocean less detrimental to coastal areas
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I didn't like the trend of weakening that 2/20-21 deal in flatter flow....it doesn't drive the boundary down as far south behind it....you can see it on the EPS too with the heights in SE Canada not as low after that system as the 00z run. We want the flow a bit more amped for that one like GGEM/Ukie.

But that's what the 2/22-23 system depends on. Doesn't really affect the systems that potentially may come after that (like 2/25-2/28 timeframe) But if we're gonna try and steal that 2/22-23 deal next week, then we need that front runner wave to be pretty amped.

Troughing also dug more SW off the PAC NW. We've seen that before too lol. But yeah that system you mentioned is key. 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


I never understood why some folks expect November to deliver the good with winter weather. Even though it gets difficult to get snows and arctic cold in March the deeper into the month you go depending on latitude, it’s much easier than in November. Just looking at climo alone, November is a torch compared to March. Also, SSTs along the coast are at their coolest in March making boundary layer wind fetch/direction off the ocean less detrimental to coastal areas

...keep in mind that someone has declared November to be a winter month..

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Troughing also dug more SW off the PAC NW. We've seen that before too lol. But yeah that system you mentioned is key. 

I fully expect the Pacific to be crap during this entire period...and probably trend worse with time as we get closer....which is why all the other variables are important. We want that wave break to be as sharp as possible from the 2/20 system

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8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We tried to tell 'em.  This winter should have taught us that day 8-9 snow threats most likely are not going to pan out.  As I've said, when the threat gets to within day 5 some of us will be more interested.

What's surprising this winter is that there haven't been more :cliff:  jumpers.

Agree!

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