February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[weathafella]

Hold onto futility as long as you can-changes coming real soon it will snow again..thank you JCM

[WinterWolf]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong when you need it to be right the most

Thank you.  God I hope it shoves it right up their cans….just to shut them the f*ck up. Maybe a crippling ice event to shut em all down. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you.  God I hope it shoves it right up their cans….just to shut them the f*ck up. Maybe a crippling ice event to shut em all down. 

I don't blame anyone thinking it'll be a shutout given the futility of this winter. 

You're asking folks to keep hope on 8+ day forecasts as we barrel into March after seeing very little snow & cold. 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who said feet of snow?  I only saw most logical folks say there is some potential mid/late next week. That’s all I saw. Some confused folks. 

No one. I’m taking literary license with hyperbole.   So far today’s 12z runs along with 0z is a step back.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong when you need it to be right the most

I’m not sure what’s worse, persistence crowd, or “day 10 looks great” crowd.

We’ve seen a lot of the latter this winter.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure what’s worse, persistence crowd, or “day 10 looks great” crowd.

We’ve seen a lot of the latter this winter.

nobody said it looks great. there are threats inside of day 10 now that may or may not pan out. that's all

[STILL N OF PIKE]

34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you.  God I hope it shoves it right up their cans….just to shut them the f*ck up. Maybe a crippling ice event to shut em all down. 

I’d take an ice event . 
 

Persistence  (to me ) doesn’t mean because it rained it’s gonna rain Again For no reason.
 

It means the underlying reason models have struggled and been overly optimistic past day 10 only to fail inside 7 days repeatedly is due to them **having certain bias that weights something more or less than they should** and wether that “something “ is the Nina forcing..it has been consistently and repeatedly mishandled In the 10-15 day range ..when models suggest the pacific will improve or the SE ridge will be weak or whatever and that these underlying factors still are not and for some reason can’t be accurately forecast by the models due to some bias that is magnified by this Nina 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you.  God I hope it shoves it right up their cans….just to shut them the f*ck up. Maybe a crippling ice event to shut em all down. 

Constantly talking about how good things look 10 days away is just as bad as persistence forecasting, if not worse.

Were going to need a threat to actually get inside of like 3-4 days, otherwise, we are just on the same hamster wheel we’ve been on since November.

like I said, the 12z gfs is literally a carbon copy of most model runs of the last 3+ months. No bonafide cold storm looks have made it inside a week. We see a few decent runs, and then make a hard turn to dung around a week or so out, and that’s where it stays.

Maybe it’ll be different this time, but the 12z gfs run is very familiar looking.

 

Im skeptical we are seeing enough of a shuffle to really change things up.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not sure what’s worse, persistence crowd, or “day 10 looks great” crowd.

We’ve seen a lot of the latter this winter.

Are people supposed to not discuss guidance? I don't understand the ridicule for people pointing out patterns shown 10+ days out....an overwhelming majority of these posts are not making a forecast or saying it will definitely happen.

Most of them are caveated with "hopefully we can get this inside 10 days" or some iteration. The worst is people who actually say nothing will change with extreme confidence and zero probabilistic nature to it. Persistence typically fails in the most high-leverage moments....which is why using it is so bad. Take the cold shot for example....yeah, it wasn't a snowstorm, but that cold shot was met with a plethora of "add 20 degrees" or "add 30 degrees" or "it's a complete model fabrication" type posts from the usual suspects....even when it was like 6-7 days out. Well, they look enormously ignorant now.....when the forecast actually mattered in a high-leverage type of event.

[NorEastermass128]

I step away for an hour and we’ve already lost hope?

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

I step away for an hour and we’ve already lost hope?

yeah because of one GFS OP run

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are people supposed to not discuss guidance? I don't understand the ridicule for people pointing out patterns shown 10+ days out....an overwhelming majority of these posts are not making a forecast or saying it will definitely happen.

Most of them are caveated with "hopefully we can get this inside 10 days" or some iteration. The worst is people who actually say nothing will change with extreme confidence and zero probabilistic nature to it. Persistence typically fails in the most high-leverage moments....which is why using it is so bad. Take the cold shot for example....yeah, it wasn't a snowstorm, but that cold shot was met with a plethora of "add 20 degrees" or "add 30 degrees" or "it's a complete model fabrication" type posts from the usual suspects....even when it was like 6-7 days out. Well, they look enormously ignorant now.....when the forecast actually mattered in a high-leverage type of event.

I’m not sure we are going to see enough components shuffle for us to see a legitimate change in direction this winter.

 

So maybe persistence is the wrong way to describe it in the big picture, but the tangible outcome may be similar to what we’ve seen all winter, struggling to get winter storm looks inside day 7

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who said feet of snow?  I only saw most logical folks say there is some potential mid/late next week. That’s all I saw. Some confused folks. 

Jerry coming off the crown high?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Constantly talking about how good things look 10 days away is just as bad as persistence forecasting, if not worse.

Were going to need a threat to actually get inside of like 3-4 days, otherwise, we are just on the same hamster wheel we’ve been on since November.

like I said, the 12z gfs is literally a carbon copy of most model runs of the last 3+ months. No bonafide cold storm looks have made it inside a week. We see a few decent runs, and then make a hard turn to dung around a week or so out, and that’s where it stays.

Maybe it’ll be different this time, but the 12z gfs run is very familiar looking.

 

Im skeptical we are seeing enough of a shuffle to really change things up.

This is getting to you so we hope you have learned this season that 18++ events don’t grow so easily on your clogged gutters…

[CoastalWx]

I've never seen op runs swing some (who should know by now) in so many directions. I know society in general is becoming more stupid with time...but I thought this board was better. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is getting to you so we hope you have learned this season that 18++ events don’t grow so easily on your clogged gutters…

He's going to learn in a hard way what it was like growing up, The days of 12" storms growing on trees will come to an end. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah because of one GFS OP run

Problem is people get married to a solution or set of solutions that are really good....like we've seen several GFS runs produce multiple warning events and now when we get one that doesn't, it is deemed a failure before it ever got inside of 7 days....it's extremely hard to talk in layman's terms about probabilistic forecasting. Any threat from like 10 days out prob has something like a 1 in 5 shot at ever verifying (or even worse odds depending on the pattern).....but a good pattern will produce like 4 or 5 "threats" in the pipeline, so odds are that 1 or 2 of them will be hits by the time you get it closer.

That's sort of what this pattern is showing....there will be a few shots....they all won't hit. Hopefully 1 or 2 of them do....but it's still possible none of them hit. There is a distinct cutter risk still....I think we've talked about it several times, but for some reason people act like we didn't mention it when an OP run (like today's 12z GFS) shows a cutter....they go "SEE!!! I TOLD YOU!!!! Its the same pattern!!!!1111111!2#3!!!!"

[HoarfrostHubb]

That March 1 deluge will somehow verify though

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Problem is people get married to a solution or set of solutions that are really good....like we've seen several GFS runs produce multiple warning events and now when we get one that doesn't, it is deemed a failure before it ever got inside of 7 days....it's extremely hard to talk in layman's terms about probabilistic forecasting. Any threat from like 10 days out prob has something like a 1 in 5 shot at ever verifying (or even worse odds depending on the pattern).....but a good pattern will produce like 4 or 5 "threats" in the pipeline, so odds are that 1 or 2 of them will be hits by the time you get it closer.

That's sort of what this pattern is showing....there will be a few shots....they all won't hit. Hopefully 1 or 2 of them do....but it's still possible none of them hit. There is a distinct cutter risk still....I think we've talked about it several times, but for some reason people act like we didn't mention it when an OP run (like today's 12z GFS) shows a cutter....they go "SEE!!! I TOLD YOU!!!! Its the same pattern!!!!1111111!2#3!!!!"

no changes

[CoastalWx]

I also don't have an issue with the initial larger event (like the one on the GFS for 2/23) to be messy. It's sort of the transition type event where I can envision that. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I also don't have an issue with the initial larger event (like the one on the GFS for 2/23) to be messy. It's sort of the transition type event where I can envision that. 

anything before March 1st is a bonus anyway before any blocking that does occur gets going. that's when the ceiling gets raised

it's obviously not a guarantee, but it's showing up more on OP runs and ensembles and moving forward in time

the effects of the SSW will also downwell easily to 50mb and possibly to 100mb... this has a good chance of coupling IMO. might also be why ensembles are getting blockier towards March

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yup...we look doomed here. CAA overnight tonight too behind that s/w passing just to our north may keep us sub 50F here tomorrow. Then a bit of a wedge Friday before the cold fropa.

now we know why the Vatican is flailing violently at the non-believers....

[mahk_webstah]

43 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That 12z gfs run is essentially a carbon copy of what we’ve seen literally all winter. I totally buy that as a plausible outcome.

promotion to Cardinal?

[jbenedet]

What a beaut. Tomorrow we do it all over again. 

[Spanks45]

62⁰ out there right now, but those winds are roaring, got to be pushing 30 mph at times. Just found some daffodils popping up... saw a boat load of geese flying north this morning too. Really high up there, not the ones moving from pond to pond.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've never seen op runs swing some (who should know by now) in so many directions. I know society in general is becoming more stupid with time...but I thought this board was better. 

 

 

Me too. It’s f’n sad. 

[jbenedet]

Sun breaking out in DAW and PSM. We make a run for 55.

[Cyclone-68]

Even an 1980’s winter wouldn’t be too bad at this point 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Even an 1980’s winter wouldn’t be too bad at this point 

We could end up with a 1980s sensible wx solution if things break wrong....cutters followed by arctic shots.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

anything before March 1st is a bonus anyway before any blocking that does occur gets going. that's when the ceiling gets raised

it's obviously not a guarantee, but it's showing up more on OP runs and ensembles and moving forward in time

the effects of the SSW will also downwell easily to 50mb and possibly to 100mb... this has a good chance of coupling IMO. might also be why ensembles are getting blockier towards March

 

I’d argue it’s more important to cash in next week. As anything after March 1 is a bonus being that it’s 13 days away.